Other than the US, which three countries will define 2025?
The Big Ask | No. 02.2025
2025 is likely to see the geopolitical climate continue to deteriorate, particularly with the return of Donald Trump to the White House. While this poses many risks, there are also opportunities for countries to advance their own agendas. While the United States (US) will undoubtedly dominate the headlines in 2025, the stage is set for other countries to play critical roles in global affairs. So, in this week’s Big Ask, we asked eight experts: Other than the US, which three countries will define 2025?
Senior Lecturer in National Security Studies, King’s College London
The framing of which three countries will ‘define’ 2025 risks a myopic perspective, ignoring the interconnected nature of global affairs and the importance of all states – large, medium, and small – in shaping geopolitics. While powerhouses such as the US dominate headlines, the nuanced contributions of smaller states frequently influence global norms and challenge established rules.
Estonia is a prime example. This small Baltic state has been a global leader in cybersecurity and resilience against ‘grey zone’ threats. As host of the recent Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) Leaders’ Summit, Estonia played a significant role in advancing military assistance to Ukraine and galvanising collective defence in Northern Europe, underscoring how smaller states can provide strategic direction in critical regions.
Similarly, Qatar’s outsized role in global energy markets and mediation – particularly in Middle Eastern conflicts – demonstrates the significant diplomatic and economic influence small states wield. Malta’s authorship of the first United Nations (UN) Security Council resolution on the Middle East Peace Process in a decade led to a negotiated release of hostages and a humanitarian pause in Gaza, illustrating the humanitarian consequentiality of smaller states.
Meanwhile, small island developing states (SIDS) like Barbados remind us that existential threats like climate change continue to accelerate. The Bridgetown Initiative is forcing essential revisions to international financial architecture, unlocking climate finance for vulnerable countries and forcing larger states to respond to global issues they might otherwise de-prioritise. Likewise, as the first Pacific SIDS developing its maritime security strategy, Fiji’s model could pave the way for other SIDS to follow suit in this critical domain of international security.
These are a handful of countless examples. Fixating on dominant powers oversimplifies a world where interdependence, regional expertise, and innovation often matter more than raw power. The future will not be defined by a select few, but by the dynamic interplay of all actors interacting within our complex adaptive system. To truly understand 2025, we should look at how all nations contribute to, and are impacted by, an increasingly multipolar world.
Patrick Horgan OBE
Independent Advisor on strategy and geopolitics
The geopolitical darts game of ‘Which Three Countries’ is a good exercise for the New Year. There’s always the risk that just as you aim carefully for the treble 20, the board is suddenly moved, or you find that you’re playing darts in a squash court with an entirely different game going on around you. At the beginning of 2024, who anticipated the attempted imposition of martial law in South Korea, or that Canada, Panama and Greenland would be in the January spotlight?
For 2025, Chat GPT believes that the answer to this Big Ask should be ‘the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India and Russia’, which just shows the lack of imagination in artificial intelligence. It’s more instructive to look at the contours of conflict and contestation today, however imperfect that may be as a guide to the future. Those contours are shaped around themes and challenges which seldom fall within a single country and have no regard for the arbitrary cycle of the calendar year.
The continuing dominant thematic concerns are: Russia’s war against Ukraine and Moscow’s acts of interference and aggression in surrounding countries and beyond. The re-ordering of the interconnected and delicately poised Jenga tower of the Middle East, triggered by the conflict in Gaza and manifested in the collapse of the Assad regime. The US-PRC great power rivalry and competition for both influence and technology supremacy. And the ongoing struggle in democracies to maintain stable and effective government, delivering growth and prosperity in a more uncertain and contested world.
Distilling those themes down to three specific countries, excluding the US, does little to advance understanding, but leads us to Ukraine, Turkey and the PRC respectively. With an honourable mention for Germany in a critical election year. As ever, the real test of resilience for companies and governments alike lies not just in the effort to anticipate events, important though that is, but also in the ability to adapt and respond effectively when events occur in ways which had not been anticipated.
Dr Timothy Less
Convenor, Geopolitical Risk Study Group, Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge
Europe is likely to be a focal point of international politics in 2025. Ukraine will clearly be defining, as international efforts begin to try and end the war. This is likely to see an intensification of violence on the ground, especially if the Trump administration ramps up arms deliveries to Ukraine as a means to bring Russia to the negotiating table on terms that Kyiv can accept. If and when they happen, the talks will then have massive implications for the nature of the international system in the coming period, resolving questions about the geopolitical status of Ukraine, Russia’s future relationship with the Euro-Atlantic and the role of the US in European security, and more besides.
Germany is another country which will define 2025, where the upcoming election will mark the tipping point in the demise of the old liberal consensus in the EU, and a milestone in the rise of national conservatism. Polls clearly indicate a win for the Christian Democrats (CDU) but the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is in second place and the CDU will need a coalition partner, at a point when the cordon sanitaire around nationalist parties elsewhere in Europe is no longer holding. A win for conservatism in Germany would pave the way for victory by conservative governments in France and Spain, completing the political transformation of the EU, with massive implications for its nature in coming years.
The third country which could be defining in 2025 is Kosovo where the Trump administration is likely to restart negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina aimed at partitioning Kosovo along ethnic lines, transferring the Serb-populated north to Serbia in return for Serbia’s recognition of the rest. The Bosnian Serbs will see this as an opportunity to include Republika Srpska in any deal, opening up the broader territorial settlement in the Balkans. The question of new borders in the region will have ramifications for the integrity of international borders more broadly, at a point when Donald Trump is threatening to abandon the norm of territorial integrity by annexing Greenland.
Expert Associate, National Security College, Australian National University
Forecasting the coming year in international relations will almost always be inaccurate. The increasingly multipolar world and the steady erosion of key international norms, including limits on the use of force, are clear trends. These shifts are likely to embolden countries – from middle powers to superpowers – to take increasingly assertive steps toward achieving their long-held objectives.
With increasing boldness and unpredictability, it is already clear that several countries may significantly shape the course of 2025. Russia remains a key factor. Its escalating sabotage operations across Europe – met with minimal response from NATO – and its ongoing invasion of Ukraine suggest that Moscow is far from finished in its attempts to reshape Europe’s security landscape. Meanwhile, Trump’s past remarks in support of Putin, combined with his criticism of NATO, could further embolden Russia to intensify its efforts — as evidenced by developments in the final months of 2024.
Israel and Iran also loom large in the unfolding geopolitical landscape. With no ceasefire in Gaza, increasing talk of West Bank annexation, ongoing Houthi attacks on Israel, and uncertainty in Syria, Israel’s next move remains unclear. What is evident, however, is that many taboos of the past have disappeared. Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, appears to view this period as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to secure Israel’s long-term security.
Turning to Iran, its regional proxies – from Hezbollah to Hamas – have faced significant setbacks. Iran has also lost its key strategic foothold in Syria, leaving it increasingly vulnerable. Iranian deterrence against Israel has eroded, and Tehran will likely take steps to restore it. Its recent attack on Israel, involving nearly 200 ballistic missiles in October, failed to achieve this goal. In response, Iran may accelerate its nuclear program, which would likely provoke an inevitable reaction from Israel. Such a move could be further encouraged by Trump’s pre-election comments suggesting that Israel should take out Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Co-founder and Director of Research, Council on Geostrategy
In terms of Net National Power, the three greatest powers after the US in 2025 will be Germany, the PRC and the United Kingdom (UK). But having national capability and having the will to use it to define international relations are two entirely different things. While its military modernisation and expansion programme continues, the PRC will continue to redefine the Indo-Pacific, while its assistance for Russia has already transformed Beijing into a European power in its own right. Will the Chinese provide additional support for Russia in 2025, giving fresh animation to the CRINK?
Germany and Britain are in a more interesting position. If a more geopolitically insightful German government is elected in February 2025, Berlin may assume a more robust approach to Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, reducing strategic division in Europe, and reshaping continental geopolitics. This would strengthen relations with the UK, which sees in the Kremlin a particularly dangerous and insidious foe.
As for Britain itself, the country is governed by a party with a large parliamentary majority, providing decisive capacity to affect change in Europe and beyond. Later this year, the Royal Navy will deploy a Carrier Strike Group with multinational elements, which will operate from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific – something the PLAN (nor Russia) can (yet) do. The new government is also due to complete two major strategic reviews during the first part of the year – the Strategic Defence Review and a foreign policy impact review.
If the new British government decides to provide additional resources, especially for defence, embrace its own ‘Bevinite doctrine’, and push its European allies into a more forceful posture over Russia, it could become decisive. It would have a similar geopolitical impact to the period from mid-2021 to well into 2022, when British statecraft redefined geopolitics from the Euro-Atlantic (Europe and Ukraine) to the Indo-Pacific (AUKUS). 2025 certainly has the potential to be an interesting year!
Senior Research Fellow in Science, Technology, and Economics, Council on Geostrategy
Many countries will define 2025 – but for those particularly interested in science and technology, keep an eye on developments in the PRC, Japan, and Germany.
A big question for the PRC is how its technological ambitions will fare against rising internal challenges and an increasingly volatile international environment. This year is the target for the PRC’s ‘Made in China 2025’ strategy, launched in 2015. This initiative has helped transform the PRC into a key player in global high-tech manufacturing and reduced its reliance on foreign technology imports. Beijing is already doubling down on this strategy.
There are a host of other issues: whether the PRC makes a move against Taiwan, and the implications this would have for global semiconductor supply chains; ‘China Standards 2035’, which aims to set and shape global standards for emerging technologies; the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); and the construction of infrastructure projects, such as the recently confirmed world’s largest dam.
Against this, the PRC’s weakened economy also has to contend with the prospect of an escalating trade war with the US, a demographic crisis, and a debt and property crisis. Will it be able to afford its ambitions?
Although Japan has a reputation as a global leader in technological innovation, it has struggled with its digital transformation. This results from its aging population, legacy systems (two-thirds of companies rely on legacy systems), and its risk-averse business environment. Japan now faces a ‘digital cliff’. In 2025, we will see if Japan can turn this risk into an opportunity. For, alongside the increase in adoption of digital technologies, several trends in Japan could spur technological innovation in 2025 – including corporate governance reforms and a generational leadership shift.
In February, elections in Germany will be a defining moment for Europe. It will show how Germany intends to deal with its struggling industries (such as the automotive sector), and its stagnant economy. For now, German industry has shown itself to be adaptable in this constrained environment. But Germany’s exposure to energy price volatility and to the PRC’s economy leave questions about how well it, and the EU more broadly, can protect itself from the coming storm.
Programme Director for Security Studies, Centre for Defence Strategies and Joint Programme Leader, Future of Ukraine Programme, Centre for Geopolitics, University of Cambridge
Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 will cast a significant shadow over Asia as leaders grapple with the implications of his potential policies. Key concerns include the extent of a renewed trade war with Beijing and the unpredictable impact his administration could have on regional flashpoints such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, and North Korea. This uncertainty will keep the world on edge, with major powers – such as the PRC, Russia, and the US – competing for advantage.
Russia will remain a critical player, shaping global dynamics by forging new partnerships and strengthening alliances, particularly within the BRICs framework. Despite internal challenges, Moscow’s deepening ties with Beijing and Tehran will solidify its role as a counterbalance to the free and open international order. Meanwhile, the NATO strategy of prolonging the war in Ukraine, rather than enabling a decisive victory, inadvertently bolsters Russia. Nevertheless, Ukraine still has an opportunity to counterbalance Russian influence, particularly in the Black Sea region. By maintaining EU solidarity, engaging NATO partners, and introducing innovative solutions, Kyiv aims to strengthen its position persuading more European partners and allies to invest in Ukraine and its own defence budgets.
The PRC will continue to assert its dominance, both regionally and globally. The BRI, along with other economic and diplomatic efforts, will expand its influence across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, challenging Euro-Atlantic democracies. Beijing’s actions in the Indo-Pacific, coupled with its global ambitions, will make it a central player in shaping 2025’s geopolitical landscape.
Lastly, India will solidify its role as a rising power. Its booming economy and advancements in technology will enhance its leadership in the so-called ‘Global South’ and global governance. As India navigates its relationships with key players like the US, Russia, and its Quad partners, its influence in security, trade, and innovation will grow, cementing its place on the world stage.
Professor of International Relations, University of Kent
The PRC is undoubtedly the country which is defining our century and adequately responding to Russia, the most threatening country to the peace and stability of the neighbourhood, looks set to define the decade for Europeans. Putting aside these two countries that will continue to demand our attention (other than the US) there are two front runner candidate countries for defining international relations in 2025.
The result of Germany’s election in February has the potential to bring Berlin back into the heavyweight role that it should play in Europe’s politics and a contribution to European security which is commensurate with the scale and scope of its resources. A German government which exercises leadership in integrating Ukraine into a staple European security order, in place of the political dysfunctionality of the current administration, would be transformative.
2025 will be a significant year for Brazil, which will be at the centre of major diplomatic events. Brazil will host the 30th meeting of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the COP30, in November. After the calamitous Azerbaijan-hosted COP29, which called into question whether the credibility of the annual summits to deliver meaningful collective agreements, Brazil needs to deliver a meaningful summit. COP30 will also take place under the shadow of the Trump administration, which looks likely to withdraw America from its existing international climate change commitments.
Brazil will also host the 17th BRICS summit. The grouping – buoyed by its expanded membership and a wider grouping of formal ‘partner countries’ – is gathering momentum and with it, an expanded set of ambitions. Brazil’s significance as host may be to moderate the explicitly anti-Western prospectus set out at its last summit (hosted by Russia in October 2024).
There are a range of other candidates that could define 2025, generally because they face overbearing and aggressive neighbours who may raise their significance by creating crises (Taiwan, the Philippines, Moldova). Likewise, attention should be given to countries that will likely be the ‘silent’ defining successes of 2025, such as Guyana, for the continuation of its astonishing economic growth.
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