From Brussels with love? Britain navigates global turbulence with renewed EU focus
The Cable | No. 05.2025
Welcome to the 28th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
As we enter the second month of 2025, the geopolitical environment continues to worsen, with the threat of trade wars in North America, a sham election in Belarus, and intense fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In Britain, His Majesty’s (HM) Government has focused on multilateral diplomacy, with Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, travelling to Brussels for key talks with the European Union (EU), the first time a British leader has met with the European Council since the United Kingdom (UK) withdrew in 2020.
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Reset and redefine: Britain’s future relationship with the EU
Sir Keir travelled to Brussels on Monday to meet with the leaders of the 27 EU countries at an informal meeting of the European Council. Sir Keir used this meeting to advance his plans for a closer defence and security partnership with the EU, while also enhancing cooperation on ‘shared threats’ such as illegal migration and transboundary crime.
Since taking office in July 2024, Labour has promised to ‘reset’ relations with the EU, but so far there has been more talk than action. In its first six months, the new Labour government has focused on enhancing bilateral defence relationships with key nations, such as the Trinity House agreement with Germany, as well as new agreements with Poland and Ukraine. It remains unclear what any UK-EU security and defence pact will entail.
Significant hurdles remain.. HM Government’s red lines of no single market, no customs union and no free movement of people, and the EU’s insistence on fishing quotas and a youth mobility scheme, leaves limited options going forward. Moreover, for a plethora of reasons, EU efforts to stand up a coherent defence force have failed to get off the ground; there are now also a number of EU countries which look set to embrace more autonomous postures, whether on Russia or the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
For this reason, Britain, Norway and certain EU countries may now be looking more to a ‘coalition’ model, allowing the most ambitious governments to move forward without the likes of Hungary, the Irish Republic, Cyprus or Austria. The upcoming UK-EU summit – expected to take place in the first half of this year – will be critical in establishing what both parties wish to achieve and how it shall be done.
Key diplomacy
Sir Keir spoke to several world leaders last week, the most important meetings being:
On 2nd February, Sir Keir hosted Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany, at Chequers. The two men discussed strengthening bilateral ties and enhancing European security. They also welcomed the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East and stated their continued support for a two state solution for Israel and the Palestinians.
On 31st January, Sir Keir held a call with Navin Ramgoolam, Prime Minister of Mauritius. They discussed their commitment to reaching a deal over the future status of the British Indian Overseas Territory (BIOT), with Sir Keir reiterating the need to secure the military base on Diego Garcia.
Last week, British ministers visited Brussels to strengthen UK-EU ties in the critical sectors of science, technology and renewable energy:
Peter Kyle, Secretary of State for Science and Technology, met with European commissioners for talks on how to strengthen science and technology cooperation. Including a deepening of Britain’s participation in Horizon Europe, the world’s largest programme of research collaboration.
On 28th January, Kerry McCarthy, Minister for Climate, gave a ‘keynote speech’ at the European Energy Forum, where she stated that greater cooperation between the UK and the EU can turn the ‘North Sea into the green power plant of Europe’.
In a dramatic departure from the recent past, HM Government has condemned the Rwandan Government, which it believes is supporting the M23 rebel group that captured the city of Goma in the eastern DRC last week:
A Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) spokesperson stated that the ongoing offensive is an ‘unacceptable breach of the DRC’s sovereignty…which poses a fundamental risk to regional stability.’
In a phone call with Paul Kagame, President of Rwanda, Lammy warned that Rwanda’s actions are ‘intolerable’ and threatened to withdraw the US$1 billion (£807 million) of global aid the country receives.
Finally, the UK joined other United Nations (UN) Security Council members in urging Kigali to end its support for M23 and called for vital humanitarian access to be granted in the region.
Britain, alongside Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the EU, released a joint statement condemning ‘the sham presidential elections in Belarus on 26th January and the ongoing human rights violations perpetrated by the Belarusian regime.’ HM Government has placed sanctions on six individuals and three defence sector institutions in the Eastern European country following the rigged result.
Defence
The British Army has announced an agreement between the Field Army and the Association of British Ports (ABP) to enhance the UK’s military sealift capabilities. The agreement will see £100 million invested in improving the infrastructure of the Marchwood Military Port, while also providing the Field Army with access to APB’s port network across the UK. This new agreement will bolster the UK’s strategic flexibility, as it means there is no longer a single port which the British Army has to rely on, reducing the risk of Marchwood becoming a ‘single point of failure’.
Britain will begin the production of artillery barrels for the first time in 20 years. BAE Systems, in partnership with Sheffield Forgemasters, have won a £61 million contract to produce barrel forgings in Yorkshire. The barrels will be sent to Ukraine to support the country in its fight against Russia’s invasion.
Navantia UK, which recently took over Harland & Wolff’s four UK shipyards, have announced plans to invest in their new holdings to ‘strengthen Britain’s defence, maritime and clean energy industrial capabilities’. These plans will fund upgrades to existing facilities and provide workforce training. Likewise, Navantia UK confirmed the resumption of the paused investment plans to build three new ships for the Royal Navy’s Fleet Solid Support (FSS) programme.
Environment and climate
HM Government has formally submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2035, which will commit the UK to reduce emissions by 81% compared to 1990 levels. Countries under the Paris Climate Agreement must submit NDCs, which stipulates a country’s emissions reduction plan for a five-year period. NDCs covering the period between 2031 to 2035 are to be submitted by the end of February 2025, ahead of the UN Climate Change Conferences (COP 30) which will take place in Brazil in November.
On 29th January, the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) announced measures to ‘accelerate the construction of offshore infrastructure’. By streamlining the consenting process and changing environmental compensation agreements, up to 16 GigaWatts (GW) of renewable electricity could be developed, providing almost as much energy as the UK’s current gas power generation. These projects could also attract between £20-30 billion in investment into British green power.
How Britain is seen overseas
The Centre for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) has published an article on British defence spending. It states that HM Government’s plans to increase defence spending to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is ‘not enough’ for the new US administration. The article lays out that Donald Trump, President of the US, is likely to demand that European countries increase defence spending to approximately 3.5% of GDP, which would require the UK to invest a further £25 billion in defence. Likewise, the authors warn that relations between the US and Britain could be harmed by the ongoing negotiations to cede sovereignty of BIOT to Mauritius.
How competitors frame Britain
Russia Today released an article ridiculing Royal Navy submariners for ‘jumping at their own shadows’, following a recent incident of mistaken identity, in which a British submarine is alleged to have chased a suspicious sonar signal which turned out to be a whale. With the number of incidents causing damage to undersea infrastructure in Northern Europe, it is any wonder the Royal Navy is proactive?
TASS reported on comments made by Dmitry Peskov, Deputy Chief of Staff in the Kremlin, in which he claimed that Britain is forcing Ukraine and other European countries into confrontation with Russia. Peskov went on to say that the UK is ‘advocating the idea that Ukraine should keep fighting until the last Ukrainian remains.’ Blaming your victim’s supporter for the harm you inflict on your victim really takes the Kremlin’s gaslighting to a new level.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
Britain’s perception of the EU – and the project of European integration more generally – has often been different to other European countries. When proposals were first mooted in the late 1940s to create a common market, even a federal European state, British political and economic elites were sympathetic, but indifferent. Both Ernest Bevin and Winston Churchill – on very different ends of the political spectrum – were both in agreement that European integration was not for Britain.
This began to change in the 1960s when the economies of continental rivals, particularly France and West Germany, began to outperform the UK. From that moment forward, the consensus began to shift in favour of joining the European Economic Community. But despite much support for the creation of the Single Market – even by Margaret Thatcher’s fiscally Conservative government – it is fair to say that European integration was something most Britons endured rather than embraced.
There have always been nuances, but these narrowed during the so-called ‘Brexit referendum’ of 2016 when a stark division opened up between ‘Remainers’ and ‘Leavers’, with the former becoming very pro-EU and the latter becoming anti. Since then, the depth of the divide has reduced. Today, Britons tend to see the EU through the lens of four persuasions:
Rejoiners look at the EU with admiration. They want Britain to be part of the EU, even if it means committing to the Euro, the Schengen zone, and full payments to the EU budget. The most ardent advocates look to forge a European federation, complete with its own armed forces and a single seat in international organisations.
Flexitists are pragmatists who seek a new relationship with the EU, but not at any cost. They see some benefits to European integration, but also some drawbacks. They seek the flexibility to engage with the parts they think will work in Britain’s interest, but not the structures they see as detrimental.
Sovereignists look to the EU with deep suspicion, even disgust. They see across the English Channel a profoundly anti-democratic project which encases the nation state in layer upon layer of international law. They believe this usurpation destroys both national democracy and Britain’s unique identity, resulting in the loss of sovereignty.
Globalists see the EU as an outdated relic and an increasingly stagnant area of the world, both economically and technologically. They want a more ambitious Britain to seize new opportunities, whether by aligning more closely with the US, leading a new bloc of nations involving Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK (the so-called ‘CANZUK’), or by penetrating new markets, from Brazil and India, to the PRC and Indonesia.
These persuasions will inevitably wax and wane over the coming years depending on Britain’s economic performance relative to the EU, the EU’s performance relative to the UK (and the rest of the world), and geopolitical changes. At the moment, the ‘flexitists’ appear to be in the driving seat, but their success will depend on the EU’s willingness to play ball.
This section is named after Gould Francis Leckie, author of An Historical Survey of the Foreign Affairs of Great Britain (1810) – the first modern geopolitical text.
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