Beyond the post-Cold War era: The Foreign Secretary looks to the next decade
The Cable | No. 02.2025
Welcome to the 25th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
As we enter the third week of 2025, His Majesty’s (HM) Government has been busy in the realms of foreign and defence policy: Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, hosted Emmanual Macron, President of France, for bilateral talks; and Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, flew to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in an attempt to boost the United Kingdom’s (UK) economy. Meanwhile, negotiations plough on over the future status of the British Indian Overseas Territory (BIOT).
Welcome back to the Cable!
We are not in the 1990s anymore
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, gave a speech on 9th January in which he laid out HM Government’s foreign policy strategy and how the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) will prepare to meet the challenges of the coming decade.
Highlighting the worsening geopolitical environment, which has seen the rise of revisionist powers and the explosion in conflict across the globe, Lammy stated ‘we must stop the 1990s clouding our vision. The post-Cold War peace is well and truly over. This is a changed strategic environment.’
To rise to the challenges Britain faces, Lammy laid out the central tenets of HM Government’s programme. Namely resetting relations with European allies and partners as well as the European Union (EU), ensuring the continuation of the ‘special relationship’ with the United States (US), and enhancing Britain’s engagement with the so-called ‘Global South’.
Lammy’s speech also advocated HM Government’s strategic goal of creating ‘a more progressive 2035’ through Progressive Realism. Supporting progressive values – such as upholding international law, poverty reduction and concrete action on climate change – via realist means. These realist means were broken down into three elements:
A return to the Cold War manual: Long-term strategic thinking, consistent deterrence and the adoption of emerging technologies;
Increasing defence spending and continuing to support the UK’s allies and partners; and
Competing against Britain’s adversaries across the world through constant engagement in the Global South.
Finally, Lammy outlined plans to reform the FCDO by aligning the department’s goals with key domestic policies, particularly economic growth and curbing illegal immigration, to ‘provide maximum benefits to UK prosperity and security.’ Somewhat surprisingly, the speech concluded with a promise to bring Artificial Intelligence (AI) ‘into the heart’ of the FCDO’s work, to make the department a ‘pioneer in harnessing its power.’
Key diplomacy
Sir Keir hosted Macron at Chequers on 9th December to discuss the strengthening of British-French relations. Sir Keir and Macron agreed to deepen cooperation on economic growth, security, energy and emerging technologies at the UK-France bilateral summit due to take place this year. Turning to geopolitics, the two leaders reiterated their continued support for Ukraine in its struggle against the Russian invasion, and called for de-escalation in the Middle East. With the return of Trump to the White House next week, it is clear that Britain and France see closer cooperation as a key means by which to weather the coming storm.
Reeves visited the PRC between 10th and 12th January, seeking closer economic ties with the PRC. During her trip, Reeves announced new agreements that will see Chinese firms invest £600 million into the UK economy over the five years, as well as the resumption of the Economic and Financial Dialogue (EFD) between the two countries after a six-year hiatus. However, HM Government has been criticised for its ‘soft approach’ towards the PRC, particularly at a time of heightened geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions between the Asian giant and free and open nations.
Over the weekend, Lammy travelled to Saudi Arabia for talks with regional and international partners over the future of Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime in December. The Foreign Secretary reiterated HM Government’s call for an inclusive Syrian-led political transition, offering British expertise on humanitarian coordination to the transitional government in Damascus. Lammy also held bilateral talks with Prince Faisal bin Farhan, his Saudi counterpart, to discuss deeper cooperation between the UK and the Middle Eastern nation.
On 13th January, HM Government issued a joint statement with the Mauritian Government on the ongoing talks over the future of the British Indian Overseas Territory (BIOT). The deal agreed last year to cede sovereignty over the BIOT to Mauritius has been under review, following reservations raised in December by the new government in Port Louis. The joint statement claims that ‘good progress has been made and discussions are ongoing to reach an agreement that is in both sides’ interests.’ It remains to be seen what the final deal looks like and how the new administration in the US will affect the negotiations.
Defence
The Defence Committee in the House of Commons published a report on 10th January calling on the Ministry of Defence (MOD) to enhance Britain’s Artificial Intelligence (AI) defence capabilities. The report states that the lessons learnt from Russia’s war against Ukraine demonstrate the critical role of AI in modern warfare:
The use of AI in Ukraine shows that it offers serious military advantage on the battlefield, and as AI becomes more widespread and sophisticated.
The report also highlights that Britain is well placed to develop ‘first-class specialisms in Defence AI’ but notes that the sector is currently underdeveloped and could be cultivated further.
Over 2,000 British military personnel are taking part in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) Exercise STEADFAST DART 25. The exercise is taking place in Romania and Bulgaria, and will conclude at the end of February. The exercise – which includes troops from ten NATO nations – is a practice deployment of NATO’s new Allied Reaction Force, which aims to provide rapid reaction capabilities to the Alliance’s eastern flank.
On 9th January, the MOD and trade unions agreed a deal for a ‘substantial pay rise’ for Royal Fleet Auxiliary personnel. The deal brings an end to the long running pay dispute and will also include further reforms on working terms and conditions.
The MOD has announced that it will provide 30,000 drones to Ukraine during 2025, as part of the UK-Latvian led Drone Capability Coalition. The Done Capability Coalition has so far raised approximately £73 million from the UK and partner nations, with Britain providing £15 million so far.
Environment and climate
In disturbing news, 2024 marked the first year in which global temperatures breached 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperature averages, making last year the hottest on record. According to the European Copernicus climate service, global average temperatures were around 1.6°C above the pre-industrial period in 2024. While natural phenomena such as the El Niño ocean pattern played a role, the main culprit is manmade greenhouse gas emissions. This news brings the Paris Climate Accord target of limiting 1.5°C into question, with many analysts stating the target is no longer achievable.
How Britain is seen overseas
The Atlantic Council released an opinion piece on the recent appointment of Peter Mandelson, a key figure in the New Labour government (1997-2010), as British Ambassador to the US. The article states that while the choice of a political figure rather than a career diplomat breaks convention, Madelson will bring a ‘wealth of experience’ and ‘political cunning’ to the role. The author explains that protecting British trade relations and ensuring American commitment to European security will be central to Madelson’s remit, particularly as the incoming administration looks set on raising tariffs and remains highly critical of European defence spending and appears less inclined to continue supporting Ukraine.
How competitors frame Britain
The Global Times released an editorial piece hailing the ‘beneficial outcomes’ of strengthening cooperation between the UK and the PRC following Reeves’ visit to the PRC this weekend. The article also praised Reeves for not signalling that the UK will follow the European Union (EU) and the US in imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, stating ‘the UK's new government has demonstrated the strategic autonomy in its China policy.’ However, the article also warns that ‘amid economic globalisation, engaging with China is not a luxury but a necessity.’ Of course, the Chinese tabloid fails to mention how vital it is for the PRC to gain access to British science, technology and financial expertise.
Sputnik International released propaganda criticising the UK and NATO for carrying out Exercise STEADFAST DART 25, calling the exercise ‘unprecedented activity near its [Russia’s] western borders.’ The article concludes with a statement from the Kremlin, proclaiming that ‘Moscow is not threatening anyone, but will not ignore actions that are potentially dangerous to its interests.’ With Russia’s ongoing invasion of a foreign power – Ukraine – this represents an incredible bout of mental gymnastics from Russian state media.
Assessing national power
In the first Kratos of the year, we looked at how strategists and analysts assess national power, before arguing that gross measures are largely unhelpful. We then looked at Michael Beckley’s formula, before applying it to the Group of Seven (G7) and the BRICs.
We found that in terms of gross power – defined by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – the UK ranks sixth in the world. But in terms of Net National Power – i.e. GDP x GDP per capita – it ranks fourth, above France but slightly behind Germany and the PRC.
If an alien species were tapping into the British media, they would assume the country is in rapid, uncontrolled decline. Not a day passes by when Britain is compared unfavourably with other countries, in terms of economic yield, educational attainment, life expectancy, military strength, and so on. The Whitehall consensus is that Britain is just a ‘middle power’, which should reduce its ambition in the world. Lord McDonald, a former Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, has even argued that the UK is finished as a geopolitical force and should double down on so-called ‘soft power’.
Regarding material capabilities, just where does Britain stand?
Economically (GDP), the UK ranks sixth in the world, after the US, the PRC, Germany, Japan and India, while in terms of GDP per capita, Britain ranks 20th. This may not sound particularly impressive, but if the UK is compared with other large countries, i.e., those with a population in excess of 25 million, it ranks fifth, after the US, Australia, Germany and Canada;
In terms of economic complexity, the UK ranks tenth overall, or fifth among large countries;
Developmentally, Britain ranks 15th, or third – after Germany and Australia – among large countries on the Human Development Index;
In terms of future possibilities, the UK ranks first among all countries;
Militarily, Britain is a nuclear power with a guaranteed second-strike capability and global reach. It also ranks fifth in terms of overall defence spending, after the US, the PRC, Russia and India.
What this shows is that there is clearly a disconnect between perception and reality. We have also received a glimpse of how impactful Britain can be when it becomes ambitious. For example, by assisting Ukraine, particularly by sending anti-tank weapons to Kyiv just prior to the Russian lunge into the country in February 2022, it is clear that the UK played a decisive role in blunting the Kremlin’s advance, just as it has been effective in deterring Russian aggression towards fellow NATO allies. Britain was central to the establishment of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence, and it was the only country to offer security assurances to Finland and Sweden when they decided to join the alliance.
Then there is AUKUS. While this agreement has not yet reached its full potential – and it will not until the Royal Australian Navy receives its first nuclear-powered submarine in the late 2030s or early 2040s – the arrangement has already started to reshape the international order in the Indo-Pacific, tilting it decidedly to the advantage of free and open countries after years of Chinese advance.
True, Britain may not be a superpower, but as these examples show, this does not mean it cannot realign the international order. Remember also that the country has achieved this with just over 2% of GDP invested in defence – very low by historical standards. With its material power base, imagine what the UK could do with even a modest uptick in investment in its military and diplomatic capabilities. This is a political choice. In other words, decline is rarely preordained, and defeatism is self-fulfilling.
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Britain, even more than the US, needs a big culling to regain its status as "the dread and envy of them all".
I found the Foreign Secretary's words about a Cold War mindset odd. It's 2025. I think most people had made the transition quite a while ago. He came across as someone who's just discovered something everyone else has known for years and is *really* excited about.