On 17th July, the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany signed the Kensington Treaty – the first treaty between the two countries since the Second World War. Following the Northwood Declaration and Lancaster House 2.0 agreement between Britain and France the previous week, the Kensington Treaty lays the groundwork for enhanced cooperation in defence between the two countries.
While it provides a comprehensive overview of what the UK and Germany aim to achieve regarding defence collaboration, the Kensington Treaty offers little in terms of how these aims will be achieved. Using it as the foundation to look to the future of British-German cooperation, for this week’s Big Ask, we asked five experts: What concrete measures should come from the Kensington Treaty?
Director, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung UK & Ireland
The Kensington Treaty marks the first-ever bilateral friendship treaty between the UK and Germany, and thus represents a highly symbolic milestone in the evolution of bilateral relations. This is an internationally and legally binding comprehensive agreement on close and strategic cooperation across nearly all key policy areas, from defence and energy to economic affairs and culture. As the treaty is intended to remain valid for years to come, the principles of cooperation are defined in relatively broad terms. The concrete and practical implementation will be carried out through annual action plans, detailing specific joint projects.
Of particular symbolic significance is the commitment to collective deterrence and defence as North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) members, reflecting a shared commitment to European security. The treaty constitutes a clear response to the increasingly volatile geopolitical environment and signals a strong commitment to strengthening Europe’s defence capabilities.
The core of the security cooperation focuses on joint military exercises, the deepening of training partnerships and close collaboration between the two countries’ defence industries. Especially noteworthy is the joint development of a new missile system, which stands as a flagship project for the enhanced level of cooperation envisioned. In addition, German defence company STARK has announced plans to build a drone manufacturing facility in Britain, creating around 200 jobs on the British side of the Channel. These steps highlight the industrial policy ambition to ensure that this strengthened partnership is sustainably anchored.
Founding Director, Centre for Britain and Europe, and Head, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Surrey
Building on the October 2024 Trinity House Agreement, the Kensington Treaty is divided into seven core areas with some important takeaways. Under the heading of ‘must meet more often’ (‘Diplomacy, Security and Development’), foreign ministers from both sides will hold an annual Strategic Dialogue to provide enhanced foreign, security and defence policy via ‘deep exchanges’ on strategic aspects of security. This bilateral development is designed to translate osmotically into improved relations between the UK and the European Union (EU), with both sides strengthening the Strategic Partnership between Britain and the EU itself as well as consolidating trilateral cooperation with France.
These may feel like diplomatic platitudes but, given the virtual absence of formal diplomatic relations between UK and EU foreign, security and defence policy post-Brexit, these are the building blocks which necessarily have to be spelled out in treaty form between Britain and European countries. Of note are the dual British-German commitments to ensure ‘increased contributions and investments’ to NATO, support for Agenda 2030 for sustainable development, reiterating the need to support defence industries and enhance bilateral military coordination with Europe’s defence ecosystem and, importantly, a preliminary application by the UK of the Agreement on Defence Export Controls signed in 2021 by France, Germany and Spain.
Lastly, in terms of the treaty’s practical outcomes, Article 22 indicates a whopping 17 two-year priority projects on the areas which both countries not only specialise in individually, but could fruitfully accelerate together, including education, science and mobility. This is especially welcome news for British universities, allowing them to strengthen research ties with German partners through the new Strategic Science and Technology Partnership, with bilateral work on Artificial Intelligence (AI), semiconductors, quantum technologies and sustainability.
Strategic Adviser, Rheinmetall
The Kensington Treaty is a huge step – given the strategic threat from Russia – to offer European leadership within NATO to protect free and open nations. Both signatories recognise that the transatlantic partnership is essential, and that European countries need to do more as the United States (US) focuses increasingly on the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Concrete measures are underpinned by a Defence Ministerial Council, a Vice Chiefs bilateral forum and the Military Equipment Capability Conference, which will support the UK’s Defence Industrial Forum and continue the cooperation begun with 2018’s Joint Vision Statement. They also include several key ‘lighthouse projects’ outlined in the Trinity House Agreement, such as:
The long-range missile programme, providing a capability out to 2,000 kilometres;
The Boxer mechanised infantry vehicle programme – to produce over 5,000 vehicles – which sees production of capability and regional investments, creation of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) jobs, generation of sovereign intellectual property, and exports from Britain, Germany and Australia;
Cooperation on future tank capabilities, such as enhanced kinetic munitions, and production of the Remote Controlled Howitzer (RCH) 155mm artillery gun in the UK, including a 120mm and 155mm gun hall in Telford;
Investments in energetics and munitions in Britain; and
Cooperation on programmes such as the Sting Ray anti-submarine missiles and MQ-28 uncrewed air systems.
Of particular interest in the bilateral governmental intent to promote greater cooperation in defence industry and exports. Both countries face similar economic growth challenges, and exports will add value to both economies while creating sustainable, well-paid, high-skilled jobs.
The challenge now is to work in cooperation with decision makers in London and Berlin, and for defence industries to deliver programmes to the right standards, timelines and costs.
Co-founder (Research), Council on Geostrategy
The Kensington Treaty compounds the Trinity House Agreement signed last year between Britain and Germany. Yet, besides the decision to deliver a new missile system for deep strike, the treaty is remarkably light on substance, unlike, for example, the recent AUKUS agreements. These will develop genuine strategic capabilities, which will not only empower Australia and the UK – and the US – in the Indo-Pacific, but also Britain’s offering to NATO in the Euro-Atlantic. The reason is simple: the Royal Navy will use its SSN-AUKUS class submarines to deter Russian aggression in the North Atlantic.
Undoubtedly, the new arrangements with Germany – as well as those with France, Norway, Romania, Italy and soon Poland – are part of the new Labour government’s manifesto promise to ‘reset’ relations with key European states. But these agreements can also serve Britain’s deeper geopolitical interests, namely deterring Russian aggression towards NATO allies, constraining Chinese interference in European affairs, and maintaining a favourable order on the European mainland.
However, this will require concrete outcomes. One of those should be to think beyond the old European Three (‘E3’) format. As Russia is likely to remain an immediate and pressing threat to British and German interests, geography dictates that Poland, Romania and Norway are all central to deterring the Kremlin. To this end, the UK should work with Germany to create a stronger European caucus within NATO.
This means: first, leading a European defence industrial buildup to help Ukraine defeat Russia; second, enhanced cooperation to strengthen and further extend the British nuclear deterrent over European NATO allies; and third, reciprocal procurement cooperation (for example, as Britain buys many terrestrial military systems from Germany, the Bundeswehr should buy into more British naval and air platforms, such as the Type 26 frigate and the Tempest combat aircraft).
Research Fellow, German Marshall Fund
The Kensington Treaty is an important step to strengthening the relationship between London and one of its key European partners. The treaty with Germany is particularly relevant because it reinforces the historically least developed bilateral ties in the E3, meaning the informal cooperation between the UK, France and Germany.
As part of the signing of the treaty, Britain and Germany have already agreed jointly to deliver on a package of 17 projects, ranging from defence industrial endeavours to tackling climate and migration issues. The implementation of these measures will be led by different ministries, which allows them to include an element of British-German cooperation on key policies.
A key opportunity following the Kensington Treaty lies in assuming co-leadership on European security and defence together with France. As a core group, the E3 could make bold proposals for NATO reform and burden-shifting on European security, potentially with additional coordination with Italy and Poland.
There are also many low-hanging fruits for quick gains in other policy areas: both governments could encourage cooperation between startups or the creation of new British-German startups through a startup fund to boost innovation. Visa-free travel for school visits is an important starting point, but the UK and Germany could think bolder and create a UK-Germany Youth Office, modelled on the French-German structure, to enhance cooperation in the next generation and avoid another ‘generation Brexit’.
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