Welcome to The Signal, our new monthly roundup of maritime matters.
Thoughts from your correspondent
To lose one subsea cable may be regarded as a misfortune. To lose two looks like carelessness. To lose more can only look like a pattern. With sincere apologies to Oscar Wilde, this was my first thought after seeing the latest incident of cables being damaged by anchor-dragging ships in the Baltic Sea.
In October 2023, the BalticConnector gas pipeline running between Estonia and Finland was damaged, along with a nearby cable. In November 2023, two seabed cables – one linking Sweden’s Gotland island to Lithuania, and another connecting Finland to Germany – were cut. And on Christmas Day 2024, three cables linking Finland and Estonia were severed, along with a fourth linking Finland and Germany. All of these incidents appear to have been caused by ships dragging their anchors.
Accidents do happen, and the Baltic is a busy place for both subsea infrastructure and shipping. However, it is becoming increasingly likely that these incidents are deliberate. Margus Tsahkna, Foreign Minister of Estonia, noted last month that damage to subsea cables in the Baltic ‘has become so frequent that it is difficult to believe this is accidental or merely poor seamanship. We must understand that damage to submarine infrastructure has become more systematic and thus must be regarded as attacks against our vital structures.’
This is a complicated issue to tackle for several reasons. Firstly, cables and pipelines are difficult to protect at the best of times – they stretch for miles along the seabed and there are simply not enough navy or coast guard ships available to patrol their lengths. Secondly, these are not attacks from adversary naval ships, but from commercial ships. It’s one thing to shadow Russian warships as they pass through the Baltic, but quite another to monitor the activities of every commercial cargo ship or tanker making its way through busy shipping lanes, particularly as anchor-dragging is hard to spot from the surface. Thirdly, these incidents could indeed be passed off as accidents. Ships do drag their anchors sometimes for reasons that aren’t malicious, and accidental infrastructure damage is not unusual by any means.
Perhaps the most difficult problem, however, is the fact that the ships identified as likely to be responsible for these incidents are not directly connected to an adversary. The complicated web of commercial shipping plays to adversaries’ advantage here – it is entirely normal for a ship to be owned by a company in one state, be flagged in another state, and have its officers and crew made up of several other nationalities. For example, the Eagle S, the tanker detained by Finnish authorities after the most recent incident, is owned by an Emirati company, flagged in the Cook Islands, and has a Georgian captain and Indian crewmembers – yet it seems to be part of Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ of ships evading American, British and European sanctions to bring oil and gas into the country.
Deliberate cable-cutting incidents are examples of so-called ‘grey zone’ warfare, intended to cause damage to an adversary while operating below the threshold of detection, attribution, and response. Such acts blur the conceptual lines between war and peace, and are a core part of Russia’s tactics – the Kremlin considers Russia to be in a perpetual conflict with the Euro-Atlantic democracies, and grey zone tactics allow Russia to challenge the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) without crossing the line into the kind of direct military action that would trigger an Article 5 response.
The maritime NATO states of Northern Europe are doing more to tackle threats to their underwater infrastructure, but there remain big questions at the centre of this issue – what acts in the maritime grey zone would trigger a military response? How many ‘accidents’ in the Baltic are too many? Where is the line?
Tracking the deployments of the Royal Navy
Key movements:
HMS Somerset, a Type 23 frigate, spent the holidays shadowing a Russian naval group transiting past the British Isles. The crew were called up on Christmas Day to sail from Devonport. The Russian corvette RFS Soobrazitelny and her two support vessels, MV Sparta II and MV General Skobelev, were monitored for more than 500 miles as they passed from the North Sea through the Dover Strait and into the English Channel. HMS Somerset’s high-tech sensor suite came in handy during foggy conditions, and the ship’s Merlin helicopter was used to capture imagery when the weather cleared up.
HMS Triumph, a Trafalgar class submarine, returned home to Devonport for the final time before her decommissioning. The seventh and last of the Trafalgar class attack submarines, HMS Triumph was escorted into Plymouth Sound to celebrate her long career – since being commissioned in 1991, she has served in combat in Afghanistan and Libya, as well as numerous other deployments around the world. Her decommissioning marks the end of the service of Cold War-era attack submarines in the Royal Navy, passing the torch to the modern Astute class.
Maritime news from allies and adversaries
United States (US): The US Coast Guard is finally getting its new class of three heavy polar icebreakers. Delivery of the lead vessel Polar Sentinel is expected in 2029, five years later than planned, but this will be a welcome relief. American icebreaker capacity has been lagging far behind Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at just two aging vessels (launched in 1976 and 2000), with consequences for US presence in the High North – but luckily the Coast Guard bought the commercial icebreaker Aiviq in the same week too, to provide some bridging capability until Polar Sentinel is ready.
Germany: The Bundestag has approved the construction of new air defence frigates and more attack submarines for the German Navy. Apart from a lot of work on both projects for Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, the approval signals a welcome investment in German naval capabilities and a further commitment to supporting NATO operations – the Zeitenwende may be slow, but it is at least still alive.
People’s Republic of China (PRC): The latest Type 076 amphibious assault carrier had its official launch ceremony in Shanghai and has been named ‘Sichuan’. The new ship is a global first – it is the only amphibious assault carrier in the world to include a catapult and arresting gear for the operation of fixed-wing aircraft. This is likely to mean large aerial drones, but may also include crewed aircraft – we will have to wait and see. Other navies should also note that China has now launched one aircraft carrier or amphibious carrier a year since 2019.
North Korea: Kim Jong Un, Leader of North Korea, has been recently shown visiting a shipyard constructing the largest warship ever built for the Korean People’s Army Navy, a 4,000 tonne frigate. Specifics are, as one would expect, hard to confirm – but from the photos published by state media there appears to be a vertical launch system (VLS) capability and the layout looks similar to an unfinished Russian corvette design. Coming just 18 months after North Korea unveiled a new corvette, this represents a significant uptick in the regime’s naval capabilities, and may indicate part of what Kim asked for in return for sending troops to assist Russia in eastern Ukraine.
Naval technology news
HMS Portland has become the second Royal Navy warship to be fitted with the new Naval Strike Missile (NSM), as part of an ongoing programme to replace Harpoon throughout the fleet’s Type 23 and Type 45 warships. The NSM travels at speeds close to Mach 1 and can strike targets more than 100 miles away, evading detection by skimming on the surface of the sea. HMS Portland completed alignment and sea acceptance trials for the new system at Haakonsvern Naval Base near Bergen. The NSM – currently also in service with the American, Norwegian and Polish navies – plugs the gap between Harpoon and its permanent successor, the ‘future offensive surface weapon’, which will be carried by the Royal Navy’s next-generation Type 26 frigates.
Apollo, the Royal Navy’s prototype for autonomous mine-hunting technology under the Maritime Mine Counter Measure programme, has undergone successful trials. The small uncrewed vessel can be launched from a mothership to scan the seabed for various mine types using its onboard kit, including a towed sensor/synthetic aperture sonar. The trial on the Firth of Clyde proved that Apollo can operate in deeper water with coastal currents, and that it can be launched from a commercial vessel if operationally needed. It will now be upgraded by its manufacturer, Thales, before being returned to the Royal Navy next year.
As part of its No Manning Required Ship (NOMARS) programme for the US Navy, the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has completed its first successful at-sea test for uncrewed surface vehicle (USV) refuelling. In a first for uncrewed operations, a refuelling probe was deployed and engaged without any human assistance on the part of the receiving vessel. The technology will now move on to sea trials with USV Defiant, a 240 tonne uncrewed lightship, in the spring.
Who deserves a mention
My first congratulations this month go to the crew of HMS Somerset – no sudden sailing is easy, but being called up to leave port on Christmas Day must have been a particularly difficult time. Their dedication to keeping us safe is exemplary, a stark reminder of how much we owe to our serving personnel and their families. BZ to them all!
Huge congratulations to all those in the Royal Navy and Royal Marines recognised in the New Year Honours List – many for their brave service in the fight against the Houthis in the Red Sea. A special BZ goes to R. Adm. Jude Terry, who has been recognised for her phenomenal contribution to the Royal Navy by being made a Companion of the Order of the Bath.
Of all the branches of men in the forces there is none which shows more devotion and faces grimmer perils than the submariners.
– Sir Winston Churchill
I read recently about the inspiring work of the Submariner Memorial Appeal, a group of retired submariners who came together in 2019 to raise funds for a fitting memorial to the 5,960 British submariners who have given their lives in service and their families. I was particularly struck by the gentleman who ran the London Marathon dressed as a submarine!
The memorial is now in the National Memorial Arboretum and includes this quote from Churchill. While his most famous quote about the Royal Navy (‘Naval tradition? Naval tradition? Monstrous. Nothing but rum, sodomy, prayers and the lash’) is rather less favourable, it is thankfully most likely apocryphal – and I much prefer his lauding of our brave submariners.
A reading list on maritime matters
Chinese Naval Developments 2024 In Review by Alex Luck in Naval News – the first part of a comprehensive review of developments in the People’s Liberation Army Navy by a leading expert.
I Blame the Navy’s Strategic Woes on the Chiefs of Naval Operations by Bruce Stubbs in War on the Rocks – a brisk assessment of the impact of short-term thinking on naval strategic planning.
Long Live the Aircraft Carrier by Joseph Reilly in USNI Proceedings – a return salvo in the ongoing war of words over whether the aircraft carrier is obsolete, from a rising star in the Royal Navy. I also recommend the book to which this is a response, Questioning the Carrier by Jeff Vandenengel.
Climate Change and Military Power: Hunting for Submarines in the Warming Ocean by Andrea Gilli, Mauro Gilli, Antonio Ricchi, Aniello Russo and Sandro Carniel in Texas National Security Review – a fascinating study on how climate change affects anti-submarine warfare via underwater acoustics.
The Utility of Reserve: The Royal Navy and the Maritime Reserve by A. J. Dunhill in Wavell Room – a thoughtful exploration of how Britain can make better use of its reserves.
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Great work Emma. Really thorough and yet succinct at the same time. Going to be really useful for us academics wanting updates!