Steadfast through the years: What will the Liberal Party of Canada do after winning the general election?
The Memorandum | No. 17.2025
In the Canadian general election at the end of April, the Liberal Party of Canada was able to secure a fourth mandate in power. Such an outcome would have been ludicrous to many just a few months ago. The Conservatives had what seemed an insurmountable lead in the polls in November 2024, with 25 points more than a deeply unpopular Prime Minister in Justin Trudeau, and a nationwide sense of fatigue over his party’s decade-long rule. The Liberal Party finished election night – 28th April – with only a few seats shy of a majority, but they look secure in their hold on power for the foreseeable future.
Although the Conservatives fell far short of what they were projected to get at the beginning of the year, it must be noted that Canada has nevertheless shifted politically to the right.
What does this result mean for Canada and its place in the world? Simply put, for a country already inert in how it conducts itself abroad, much more continuity than change can be expected in how Canada goes about its foreign and defence priorities. That Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), has provoked much antagonism in Canada will probably not lead to much real change.
Although the Conservatives fell far short of what they were projected to get at the beginning of the year, it must be noted that Canada has nevertheless shifted politically to the right. The left wing New Democratic Party got decimated, lost official party status and saw itself swept from traditional strongholds such as the manufacturing city of Windsor in Ontario. Conservative candidates feasted on its unpopularity among members of the working class. So did the Liberals, with Mark Carney, now Prime Minister of Canada, positioning himself as someone who is fiscally conservative, having indisputable central banking experience, and being much less wedded to the progressive rhetoric of his immediate predecessor.
Arguably, one reason why Carney won was by adopting some of the policy ideas of his Conservative opponent, Pierre Poilievre, including reducing interprovincial trade barriers and, more to the point, cutting the widely disliked ‘consumer carbon tax’. Another reason was how Carney centered his campaign on the fear of external threat – a fear which Trump was happy to stoke on the day of the election – and national sovereignty concerns. For a party already in office for about ten years, one would be forgiven for thinking that the Liberals had embraced right wing populism to maintain power. The strategy proved effective, especially as older voters, who are more likely to vote, were much more anxious about the challenges posed by Trump than younger ones were. Poilievre’s reticence to criticise Trump and his tariffs won few plaudits.
Canada remains too integrated with the US on both economic and security grounds, meaning that few credible alternative options exist.
Despite promising to sharpen Canada’s independence from the US, Carney likely will not engage in any dramatic shift in Canadian foreign policy. The room for manoeuvre is small because Canada has few options available to it, due to its geography and a long series of policy choices which constrain its capacity for acting autonomously.
Canada remains too integrated with the US on both economic and security grounds, meaning that few credible alternative options exist. The Canadian defence industry exports primarily to America, while Canada and the US share a unique mission within the Euro-Atlantic security community to defend the North American airspace. Openly reconsidering the F-35A Lightning II Joint Combat Aircraft purchase might make for good campaign sound bites, but Canada has already cancelled or postponed its replacement for the CF-18 Hornet fighter jets several times, creating a serious capability gap as well as a pilot shortage. The choice now is not between American planes and European ones for protecting Canadian airspace, but between American planes with American pilots and American planes with Canadian pilots. Canada has already negotiated trade agreements with the European Union (EU) and has friendly trading partners in the western Pacific via the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which includes the United Kingdom (UK). Talk of EU membership is fundamentally unserious, not least since Canadian farmers will not be welcomed by their European competitors, but also because joining that customs union would further erode Canada’s own ability to manage its commercial relations abroad.
Carney does not have a strong hand to play against Trump. Although he is likely to remain in power for at least a year or two – because a vote of nonconfidence still requires the cooperation of three opposing parties – he does not command an unfettered majority. Moreover, the economic situation within Canada has worsened over the course of the last decade. Mounting federal deficits, growing income inequality and a persistent affordability crisis remain key problems which the new Liberal government must tackle. Fiscally conservative in sensibility, Carney will lead a government which will have to be more austere than Trudeau’s. Nevertheless, Carney may face pressure to increase discretionary spending so as to maintain sufficient cross-party support, and thus the confidence of the Parliament of Canada. The financial firepower for dealing with Trump and his protectionist policies, however lackadaisical and ill-considered they are, will be limited. A new trade deal may yet be negotiated, but how it would improve upon the status quo for Canada is hard to see.
Canada will thus lumber along for the next few years. It will remain engaged in missions abroad, such as the Multinational Brigade in Latvia. It will still offer humanitarian and legal support to Ukraine, if not financial assistance as well. It will pursue executive agreements with like-minded allies and partners in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions to attempt closer diplomatic and economic ties. It will contribute token forces to a handful of international missions, as it has now done with the UK’s Carrier Strike Group 2025. It could even join the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force, as some analysts recommend.
Indeed, Carney met with Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the UK, in early March with the goal of improving trade and boosting technological cooperation in the areas of artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing. Owing to his (at times controversial) stint as Governor of the Bank of England between 2013 and 2020, arguably no other Prime Minister in Canadian history knows Britain as well as Carney does. Yet, expectations of what he could do to shape bilateral relations should be tempered in view of the constraints on his government and the Canadian economy. Budgetary realities will inhibit any major expansion of defence spending to levels approaching 2% of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Changes will likely be more symbolic than impactful in affecting the course of Canada’s foreign and defence policies. Expect much of the same from Canada.
Dr Alexander Lanoszka is an Associate Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy and Associate Professor in International Relations at the University of Waterloo.
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