Japan’s election aftermath: Still the anchor of East Asian security?
The Memorandum | No. 16.2024
Since the 2012 general election, political leadership in Japan has offered an anchor of political stability to regional security. In particular, for the first eight years of this period the late Shinzo Abe, former Prime Minister of Japan, charted the ruling coalition – composed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito – through a political transformation which resulted in a series of significant reforms in defence and security policy.
Crucially, Abe introduced the first national security strategy in 2013, aimed at integrating the levers of national power. He created a national security secretariat which could act as a control tower for policy implementation, and reformed legislation to empower the Japanese Self-Defence Forces (JSDF) with greater capacity to act nationally and internationally. He propelled the United States (US)-Japan alliance into a new phase of operational integration while developing new security ties with countries such as Australia and India.
In the aftermath of Abe’s premiership, Fumio Kishida, his successor, proved just how significant the Japanese transformation had been through the actions he took in response to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Indeed, whether directly – by pledging a significant increase of the defence budget and the specific procurement of advanced capabilities for conventional deterrence – or indirectly – through concerted political actions with the Group of Seven (G7) and European partners – Japan continued to provide a steady sense of leadership in international security.
The political continuity provided by the ruling coalition for more than a decade came to a grounding halt with the general election on 27th October 2024. Falling short of the minimum number of seats in the lower house of the Diet to secure a simple majority, the LDP-Komeito coalition faced a considerable electoral defeat. It secured only a combined 215 seats (out of 465), with the LDP losing 56 seats.
The electoral results raise a key question as to whether Japanese politics has entered a period of turbulence and fluidity. In the immediate future, the results put Shigeru Ishiba, the current Prime Minister of Japan, in a difficult position for two reasons. First, he will have to secure the Diet’s nomination to serve as prime minister in a special session in which the current cabinet will resign and a new vote will take place. Second, he will have to focus on party politics to widen the ruling coalition and ensure his own party’s support.
The political transition in Japan is also coming at a difficult time in East Asian geopolitics. Increasing Chinese aggression in the Strait of Taiwan and the South China Sea, and combined military activities conducted jointly by Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the waters adjacent to Japan, coupled with the outcome of the US presidential election, provide additional factors of concern over the future of regional stability.
Against this background, there are two crucial questions to ponder. First, to what extent is the continuity and stability of Japanese defence and security policy of the past decade likely to be affected by the country’s current political transition? Second, what will the political costs be to defence and security policy as Ishiba attempts to create a wider coalition?
Answering these questions invites three key observations. The first concerns political leadership in Japan. One of the remarkable aspects of the recent LDP leadership contest concerned the fact that Ishiba’s victory remained uncertain until the very end. Indeed, Takaichi Sanae, the other final contender in the leadership contest for the LDP, looked set to take over the party after she won the first round of voting. However, the limits of Ishiba’s political popularity within the LDP does not diminish the support he receives on defence, resulting from his prior experience as both Director General of the Defence Agency and Minister of Defence.
Indeed, this leads to a second observation. Where defence and security policy is concerned, Ishiba’s instincts capture a growing consensus across the Japanese political landscape.
Even his more controversial views over the demand for an ‘Asian NATO’, while not without critics, draw upon a growing political understanding in Japan of the need to deepen the capacity for agency within regional security frameworks. More importantly though, his views to improve the capabilities of the JSDF and invest in defence find considerable approval in Japan.
By contrast, Ishiba’s views on the need to reform the asymmetric character of the US- Japan alliance find much less support across party legislators. This is an area where Ishiba’s position differs from recent prime ministers, including Abe and Kishida, and which would demand considerable political capital to be articulated fully and implemented. In particular, his definition of an alliance among more ‘equal’ partners remains unclear, suggesting that in the face of a coalition-building effort domestically, this aspect of his agenda might take a less prominent role. While it is likely that the coming months will bring about considerable political transition in Japan, there is consensus over the current government’s priorities of defence and security.
Plans for consolidating reconnaissance, targeting and counterstrike capabilities will continue to receive support, and so will programmes such as the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) with the United Kingdom (UK) and Italy to develop a next generation fighter aircraft – as there is wide political support for Japan’s multilateral efforts and growing maturity on security issues. The real cost of coalition building for defence policy might focus instead on the ability of the Japanese Government to nurture new initiatives or indeed to champion significant changes to the dynamics of the US- Japan alliance to reflect greater ‘equality’.
In this respect, it would seem fair to suggest that the continuity in the defence and security endeavours which informed Japanese actions in recent years might very well be the most relevant way for the next government to navigate the choppy waters of the country’s immediate political transition.
Prof. Alessio Patalano is the Hebert Richmond Associate Fellow in Maritime Strategy at the Council on Geostrategy. He is also the Professor of War and Strategy in East Asia in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London.
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