Very interesting discussion, thank you. I think Russia is a spent power, I don't see how they can rebuild their economy after this war without fundamentally changing their form of government, which looks extremely unlikely. Their economy was based almost entirely on exporting energy products, manufactured goods for energy generation like generators and turbines, nuclear plants etc, and exporting what were thought to be fairly high-end weapons systems to those who couldn't afford, or weren't allowed, to buy Western systems. Is Europe going to buy Russian oil and gas like it did before the war? No, even if it did it would be in lower quantities and probably lower prices as our generation networks de-carbonise. Physically, they will struggle to export as much to China, and China has already wrung very low gas prices out of them. Given how poorly most of their high-end systems have performed in Ukraine, and how their biggest markets like India are quickly moving to indigenous systems, I don't see how they can rely on the arms trade to rebuild their economy either, although this is probably what they will try to do in the short term. For a long time Russia held an advantage over China in some key areas of technology like nuclear, rocketry, jet turbines, and submarine systems, but it seems likely that they have had to "sell" a lot of this tech in exchange for Chinese materials and goods in the war. China is not supporting Russia, it is, as Prof. Freedman often pointed out, looking after itself and profiting from this situation. Chinese banks and larger firms are actually now very wary of dealing with Russia due to secondary sanctions. China will milk Russia for it's money and tech, and then happily let it wither or become a de-facto economic vassal. China is the only real threat in this "CRINK" non-bloc.
Very interesting discussion, thank you. I think Russia is a spent power, I don't see how they can rebuild their economy after this war without fundamentally changing their form of government, which looks extremely unlikely. Their economy was based almost entirely on exporting energy products, manufactured goods for energy generation like generators and turbines, nuclear plants etc, and exporting what were thought to be fairly high-end weapons systems to those who couldn't afford, or weren't allowed, to buy Western systems. Is Europe going to buy Russian oil and gas like it did before the war? No, even if it did it would be in lower quantities and probably lower prices as our generation networks de-carbonise. Physically, they will struggle to export as much to China, and China has already wrung very low gas prices out of them. Given how poorly most of their high-end systems have performed in Ukraine, and how their biggest markets like India are quickly moving to indigenous systems, I don't see how they can rely on the arms trade to rebuild their economy either, although this is probably what they will try to do in the short term. For a long time Russia held an advantage over China in some key areas of technology like nuclear, rocketry, jet turbines, and submarine systems, but it seems likely that they have had to "sell" a lot of this tech in exchange for Chinese materials and goods in the war. China is not supporting Russia, it is, as Prof. Freedman often pointed out, looking after itself and profiting from this situation. Chinese banks and larger firms are actually now very wary of dealing with Russia due to secondary sanctions. China will milk Russia for it's money and tech, and then happily let it wither or become a de-facto economic vassal. China is the only real threat in this "CRINK" non-bloc.