Welcome to the 70th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
On 26th November, Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, unveiled her second autumn Budget since Labour came into power in July 2024. The Budget focused on new taxation and benefit reform, with limited time given over to defence. However, in her speech to the House of Commons, Reeves did reaffirm last year’s commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027. The document also included multiple references to defence spending being a catalyst for economic growth.
Nevertheless, raising the defence budget to reflect the worsening geopolitical environment accurately continues to prove financially and politically difficult. An issue was highlighted by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which calculated that for Britain to reach the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) target of spending 3.5% of GDP on defence by 2035, it would cost the United Kingdom (UK) an additional £32 billion in today’s money.
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On 25th November, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, co-chaired a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing with France and Germany. Also in attendance were Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine; Marco Rubio, Secretary of State of the United States (US); and representatives and leaders from 35 other countries. In the meeting, the co-chairs reiterated support for a peace deal in Ukraine, but underlined that it would only be acceptable, and lead to a just and lasting peace, with Kyiv’s full involvement, long-term security guarantees and borders that remain unchanged by force.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has announced it has halted the use of the Ajax armoured fighting vehicle after more than 30 soldiers were taken ill during recent exercises using the Ajax due to vibrations and intense noise. This comes after the MOD declared the vehicle was at Initial Operating Capability (IOC) on 7th November.
The UK Space Agency has announced that it is investing £6.9 million into five British-led satellite communications (SATCOM) projects under the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Advanced Research in Telecommunications Systems (ARTES) programme. The projects will include work on satellite refuelling, advanced 5G networks, and optical and lunar communications. This announcement comes ahead of the ESA’s Ministerial Council on 26th-27th November, where further financial commitments will be negotiated.
For additional defence news stories, follow this link to the DSEI Gateway news portal.
Earlier this week, HMS Severn, a River class Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV), intercepted two Russian warships, the RFN Stoikiy and Yelnya, transiting the Dover Strait in the English Channel. This follows the reemergence of the Russian spy vessel Yantar last week and John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, labelling its movements as ‘deeply dangerous’.
According to reporting by Sky News, the UK’s military chiefs, led by Sir Rich Knighton, Air Chief Marshal, held a ‘very difficult’ meeting with senior MOD officials this week to discuss funding to rebuild the British Armed Forces. Reports have shown growing concern over a gap between the promises made by His Majesty’s (HM) Government and the reality of the size of the defence budget.
The Nuclear Regulatory Taskforce has published the final report of its Nuclear Regulatory Review 2025, which calls for a ‘radical reset’ to reverse the ‘relative decline’ of the UK’s nuclear industry. The report highlights the ‘overly complex nuclear regulatory system’, which has made Britain the ‘most expensive place in the world to build nuclear projects’, and includes 47 recommendations aimed at simplifying and streamlining regulation in the UK’s nuclear industry.
How competitors frame Britain
Andrey Kelin, Russian ambassador to the UK, stated on Rossiya-24 that the UK continues to ‘live in a fantasy world’ in regards to Ukraine. He said that Britain’s strategy of supplying weapons to Kyiv and continuing sanctions on Moscow is ineffective, as it misunderstands what is happening on the frontline and in wider negotiations. Kelin concluded that ‘London is currently living in a world of political illusions’, as the UK constantly ‘twists things for their own benefit’. Britain’s one concern is to ensure peace and independence for Ukraine and will continue to pursue that goal.
The Global Times published a piece on the upcoming approval of the new Chinese embassy in London, labelling the delays to the project as unnecessary and contradictory. It argues the latter by highlighting that the UK continues to ask to ‘accelerate its own project in China while indefinitely delaying China’s lawful application in London’. The article goes on to dismiss all concerns over espionage risks as unsupported accusations that ‘veer into the absurd’. The threat to British interests from Beijing are far from absurd and any delays in approval reflect this.
Fallen stars: US Navy cancels the Constellation class
Earlier this week, the US Navy cancelled the Constellation class, its current frigate programme. Of the more than 20 ships planned, only the first two will be completed.
The Constellation programme is a warning of how good defence procurement ideas can be undone. It is also a lesson in taking brave decisions to cancel a programme which is not achieving what was needed, going back to the drawing board, and avoiding a sunken cost fallacy. The decision also opens an opportunity for the UK to attempt to muscle in with its own frigate designs.
On paper, the approach taken to the Constellation class was correct. The US needed Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW) platforms capable of operating in a high-threat environment in and around its Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs). After the Cold War, it saw little need for ASW capabilities, but Russia modernised its submarine fleet and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has invested heavily in catching up.
Now the US needs ASW frigates, and quickly. The decision was taken to go for an ‘off the shelf’ design of over 20 frigates, to be modified to fit American equipment. This saw the FREMM (Franco-Italian frigate design) selected, where the plan was for around 20% modification to the base design. This would have helped to keep costs down and do away with time-consuming design phases, allowing production to start as soon as possible.
Unfortunately the programme quickly ran into problems. Limited shipyard capacity and a shortage of workers were always going to constrain construction. Additionally, constant design tinkering – ongoing even while construction was underway – led to far more changes than envisioned. Rather than 80% commonality and 20% modification, the design had morphed closer to the inverse. Delays and cost-overruns led to the programme to be scrapped.
Now, the US must go back to the drawing board for its ASW. Time will be even more of the essence. Britain should seriously consider whether it could persuade America to select the Type 31 or Type 26 design. There are a host of advantages (e.g., Aegis is already integrated on some Type 26 designs, and the Type 31 can be built relatively quickly and for relatively low cost), but also a number of drawbacks for each option. And competition will be tough; Japan, South Korea, and a suite of US companies will be looking to offer solutions.
Though by no means a shoe-in, there is an opportunity for HM Government to show its new partnership with industry in action, and present a united front in pushing for a British-American frigate partnership.
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