Welcome to the 68th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
Last week, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, flew to Brazil to take part in the United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference (COP30), which began in Belem on 10th November. In a speech delivered at the World Leaders Summit in the days leading up to COP30, Sir Keir warned that the consensus on tackling climate change ‘is gone’, but that the United Kingdom (UK) remains committed to its climate goals. He also urged global leaders to ‘strengthen international collaboration’ to mitigate global warming.
However, with the leaders of the world’s three largest polluters – the United States (US), the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India – not in attendance, and coupled with the worsening geopolitical environment, the likelihood of greater global cooperation on the climate looks less likely than it did when the Paris Accords were signed ten years ago.
Welcome back to The Cable!
Following a spate of incursions into Belgian airspace by suspected Russian drones, His Majesty’s (HM) Government has announced that Britain will provide military support to deter further violations. The incursions into Belgian airspace follow similar incidents across European nations including Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Germany.
Last week, the UK-led Carrier Strike Group 2025 (CSG2025) arrived in the Mediterranean Sea, via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, following its deployment to the Indo-Pacific. CSG2025 is now participating in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) Exercise FALCON STRIKE. This is an Italian-led large-scale air and maritime exercise, where Britain will integrate its air and maritime forces while working in support of NATO.
On 7th November, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced that the Ajax armoured fighting vehicle has entered Initial Operating Capability (IOC), with this key delivery milestone meaning that it can now deploy a squadron on operations. Ajax will replace the Combat Vehicle Reconnaissance (Tracked) (CVR[T]) family of vehicles, which first entered service in 1971. The British Army has 589 Ajax vehicles on order, which will form the ‘heart’ of both the Armoured and Deep Recce Strike Brigades.
On 5th November, the Royal Navy put out a tender to acquire 20 Uncrewed Surface Vessels (USVs) to support training and enhance its ‘tactics, warfare and capability development’. The project, codenamed ‘BEEHIVE’, is part of the Royal Navy’s plans to expand its surface fleet into a hybrid force of crewed and uncrewed vessels. Project BEEHIVE is expected to run between February 2026 and February 2028, with successful candidates receiving £10 million in funding from UK Defence Innovation.
For additional defence news stories, follow this link to the DSEI Gateway news portal.
New figures released by the MOD have revealed that the British Army has seen a 38% decline in new recruits over the past year, compared to 2019-2020. The data also showed that the number of recruits failing to complete basic training has also risen from around one in four to one in three over the same period.
How competitors frame Britain
Russia Today released propaganda this week claiming that Ukraine, with the support of the British intelligence services, planned to ‘steal a MIG-31 fighter jet’ from Russia to create a diplomatic incident by flying the aircraft over a military air base in Romania. The article states that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) ‘foiled the plot’, and that the operation was organised by Ukraine ‘in coordination with the UK’s MI6’. The usual spiel from the Russian security apparatus, who see British operatives in every shadow.
Following recent reports that academics from a British university were prevented from carrying out research in the PRC, the Embassy of the PRC to the UK released a statement rejecting these claims. The spokesperson said that ‘China firmly opposes activities by any institution or individual to slander and smear China by fabricating falsehoods and spreading lies’. The statement concluded by claiming that the researcher was part of a ‘disgraceful political campaign’ to ‘defame’ the PRC. This is clearly the latest example of Beijing forcibly censuring investigations into human rights abuses taking place in Xinjiang.
The Joint Expeditionary Force and Ukraine
Ukraine’s accession as the first ‘Enhanced Partner’ of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) represents a positive strategic development. It is the logical next step in the growing and deepening bilateral partnership between the UK and Ukraine. It formalises a relationship built on successive agreements and practical support, further embedding Ukraine within the Euro-Atlantic security architecture while enhancing military interoperability.
The geostrategic implications of this decision are significant. As a British-led coalition of ten nations, the JEF has, until now, focused on Northern Europe and the Baltic Sea. Ukraine’s admission as an enhanced partner, however, fundamentally extends the JEF’s strategic geography by linking the Baltic to the Black Sea. As the Baltic and Nordic states are drawn south, two of Europe’s most important and contested maritime areas are now connected.
Ukraine’s participation, in effect, also mirrors the JEF’s original intent. When established, it was conceived not only as a rapid-reaction force in defence of NATO, but also as a means to enhance NATO ties with Finland and Sweden – then non-NATO partners. Admitting Ukraine – a non-NATO country with unparalleled contemporary experience in high-intensity warfare – as an enhanced partner reinvigorates this original mission. Drawing Ukraine closer to the JEF may prepare it more effectively for NATO membership.
But Ukraine’s admission as a new partner also throws up new questions. As originally conceived, the JEF was to be explicitly expeditionary; it was to provide a platform for close British allies – such as Estonia, which had been under British command in Afghanistan – to continue to operate and gain experience alongside the British Armed Forces when they deployed overseas.
As the JEF’s nuclear custodian, the UK will remain central. But as the grouping links the Baltic and Black seas closer together, it is transcending its original purpose. Today’s JEF is starting to act as NATO’s outer bulwark or praetorian guard: the most agile and politically responsive ‘first responder’ to potential Russian aggression.
This begs two vital questions: Has the time come to rebrand the JEF as the Joint Deterrence Force? After all, its strategic objective is now unambiguous: it serves to harden NATO’s long eastern front. And after Ukraine, could additional countries be invited to join as Enhanced Partners – such as Poland, Romania and Germany?
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