Welcome to the 61st Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
Last week, Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), travelled to the United Kingdom (UK) for his second state visit to the country. While in Britain, Trump met with His Majesty King Charles III, and was hosted by Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, at Chequers. Following their meeting, the Prime Minister gave a speech emphasising the close bond between the two countries, describing what he called the ‘renewed special relationship for a new era’.
Alongside the political show of unity, a flurry of new bilateral deals were announced between the UK and US, including a package of investment into Britain worth around £150 billion, focused on clean energy, defence, science and emerging technologies. These include the Technology Prosperity Deal and the Atlantic Partnership for Advanced Nuclear Energy. This investment could be a critical injection of funding for the British economy, aiding in the development of key industries and deepening economic ties between the two countries.
The role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in strengthening the UK’s economy was highlighted in a recently published a Report by the Council on Geostrategy as part of its Caudwell Strong Britain programme, entitled: ‘Fixing the foundations: Making Britain a more attractive destination for Foreign Direct Investment’. Read the Report for a greater understanding of the UK’s strategy to attract FDI.
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On 22nd September, Yvette Cooper, Foreign Secretary, made a statement condemning ‘Russia’s imperialist warmongering’ at the United Nations (UN) Security Council meeting, following Russian fighter jets violating Estonian airspace on 19th September. Cooper highlighted the ongoing escalation of Russian actions on the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) eastern flank, with drones entering both Polish and Romanian airspace in recent weeks. She went on to reiterate Britain’s ‘full solidarity’ with its NATO allies, before warning Moscow that its:
reckless actions risk a direct armed confrontation between NATO and Russia. Our Alliance is defensive. Be under no illusion. We stand ready to take all steps necessary to defend NATO’s skies and NATO’s territory. We are vigilant.
His Majesty’s (HM) Government has formally recognised Palestine. The move came following months of warnings by HM Government for Israel to end its military actions in Gaza.
On 16th September, HMS Richmond, a Type 23 frigate, arrived in Manila, Philippines. As part of the port visit, Lord Coaker, Minister of State for Defence, met with representatives of the Government of the Philippines to discuss expanding defence cooperation between the two countries. Following the meeting, both countries have agreed to start negotiations for a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA), paving the way for military exercises between the two countries on each other’s territory.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) sourcing portal has issued a notice for a new medium surface Commando Insertion Craft (CIC) for the UK’s Commando Force. These platforms must support the Commando Force’s ‘surface manoeuvre’ and the military’s ‘littoral strike’ capabilities. Likewise, the craft must be able to embark, transport, disembark and operate a range of payloads including ‘commando teams, ultra-light vehicles, fires, offboard uncrewed systems and medium combat loads’.
For additional defence news stories, follow this link to the DSEI Gateway news portal.
On 22nd September, King Charles III participated in the commission ceremony for HMS Agamemnon, the Royal Navy’s latest Astute class nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN), at the BAE shipyard in Barrow-in-Furness. HMS Agamemnon is the sixth of seven Astute class vessels, with HMS Achilles, the final boat, under construction and projected to enter service in early 2029. In a separate ceremony, led by John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, steel was cut on HMS King George VI, the fourth and final Dreadnought class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), marking the start of its construction.
Last week, the European Council opened negotiations with Britain on its participation in the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence loan mechanism. SAFE will allow participating nations to borrow from its €150 billion (£130 billion) pot to support joint defence projects. For the UK, negotiations will focus on its entry fee and the limits of British defence firms in supplying the ‘total value of finished defence products’. HM Government welcomed the opening of talks, stating it was in the interests of both sides to ‘bring together our unique capabilities and expertise to make Europe a safer, more secure and more prosperous place’.
Navantia, a state-owned Spanish shipbuilder, has confirmed that most of the construction of the first of three Royal Navy vessels (as part of the £1.6 billion Fleet Solid Support [FSS] programme) will now take place in Spain. In the original plans, the midsection of the first ship was to be built at the Harland and Wolff (H&W) Belfast shipyard, but due to these shipyards still ‘undergoing upgrades’, the midsection will now be built in Cadiz, Spain. The bow will still be built at the H&W Appledore facility in Devon. A spokesperson for the MOD confirmed that the final assembly of the three ships will still be done in Belfast.
How competitors frame Britain
TASS interviewed Alexander Stepanov, military expert at the Institute of Law and National Security of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), in which he stated that the UK is ‘creating a military protectorate in Ukraine’. Stepanov argued that the ‘Paris-London axis’ was playing the ‘dominant role’ in obstructing the peace process between Kyiv and Moscow, with Ukraine losing its sovereignty due to its reliance on European allies in supporting its economy and military. More insanity from the Russian political class; Britain is supporting an ally invaded by its imperialist neighbour, which does, in fact, wish to turn independent Ukraine into a vassal state.
Last week, following HMS Richmond and USS Higgins sailing through the Taiwan Strait, the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theatre Command warned the UK and US that they were engaged in ‘trouble-making and provocation’, and their actions send ‘the wrong signals and undermine peace and stability’. Perhaps Beijing should look in the mirror and realise that its provocative stance towards Taiwan and its encroachment on its neighbours’ maritime territory is the true destabilising force in the region.
What does the alleged re-prioritisation of the US National Defence Strategy to the Western Hemisphere mean for Britain?
In May, Pete Hegseth, US Secretary of War, sent a memorandum to Elbridge Colby, US Undersecretary of War for Policy, tasking him to write the new National Defence Strategy (NDS). On 5th September, Politico published a piece predicting a major shift in direction in the upcoming NDS. While many were anticipating something akin to the PRC-focused strategy of the 2018 NDS, or something drawn from Colby’s 2021 book The Strategy of Denial, Politico alleged that three people briefed on the draft had stated it represented ‘a major shift for the US and its allies’.
The draft was said to lay more emphasis on national and Western Hemisphere (particularly Latin America) regional security than on the competition with the PRC. Right off the bat, this would seem to fit the desired drawdown of the US’ global commitments by elements of the American electorate, alongside the use of US military units to police the southern border and coerce Venezuela over alleged support to drug cartels. If one had to guess, it would seem that immigration has become the central principle deciding the future of American national security strategy.
It is certainly not about the balance of power in the international system, since Latin American power – even when aggregated – is only half that of the US. Asia, with 40% of global domestic product is – according to The Strategy of Denial – the world’s most consequential region.
It may well be due to the growing war which the Trump administration has declared on the drug trade, with cartels such as the Sinaloa Cartel and the Gulf Cartel recently being designated as ‘Foreign Terrorist Organisations’ by the White House. It has also used the US military to strike and sink three different vessels alleged to be engaged in drug trafficking.
What does this mean for Britain? In some ways, it contradicts the overall trend of US allies – in both the Indo-Pacific and Europe – to prioritise competition with the PRC and Russia. It might signal a downgrade in American global commitments, as well as a push for allies to take responsibility for security in their own regions – both worrying, if true.
On the other hand, it does represent some shared interests and opportunities for the UK and US to cooperate, since much UK-bound drug trafficking originates from Latin America as well. One might imagine the Royal Navy and US Navy cooperating more closely in the region on this. Nonetheless, counter-narcotics and immigration operations are peripheral to the broader strategic competition taking place, and were not even mentioned in June’s Strategic Defence Review. If the rumours about the NDS are true, this portends a lack of American leadership that would be a blow to Britain and its closest allies.
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