Welcome to the 54th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
On Friday, 1st August, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia began five days of joint naval exercises off the coast of Vladivostok in eastern Russia; an example of the two countries’ deepening military ties. Of more immediate importance is the body of evidence that Beijing is directly supporting Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in particular exporting so-called ‘dual use goods’ to keep the Russian war machine running, while recently cutting the export of drones to Kyiv. In another example of the PRC’s hardening position towards Ukraine, Wang Yi, Foreign Minister of the PRC, told Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs, at a recent meeting in Brussels that Beijing ‘can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine’ as the war prevents the United States (US) from focusing on the challenges presented by the PRC.
For policymakers in the United Kingdom (UK), Russian aggression remains the chief security priority, but the growing cooperation between the PRC, Russia, Iran and North Korea – the ‘CRINK’ – demonstrates the indivisibility of the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific theatres. His Majesty’s (HM) Government and its allies and partners should understand that Beijing is not a benign actor in Ukraine, and therefore should implement policy accordingly.
Welcome back to The Cable!
On 29th July, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, announced that Britain will recognise a Palestinian state by the next meeting of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in September unless certain ‘substantive steps’ are taken by the Israeli Government to end ‘the appalling situation in Gaza.’ These conditions include allowing the UN to restart the supply of aid to Gaza, agreeing to a ceasefire, committing to no further settlement in the West Bank and reviving the prospect of a Two State Solution. Alongside this statement, the Prime Minister has been engaged in diplomacy to bring an end to the current conflict in the Middle East. This included phone calls with Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister of Australia, Haitham bin Tarik al Said, Sultan of Oman and Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, President of Egypt. Sir Keir also held a call with Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, urging Netanyahu to lift all restrictions on aid access in Gaza and informing his Israeli counterpart that the UK was considering next steps for the recognition of Palestine.
After a four-month deployment, the Royal Air Force (RAF) has officially concluded its part in Operation CHESSMAN – the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) enhanced Air Policing (eAP) mission in Poland. During the deployment, RAF Eurofighter Typhoons racked up over 460 flying hours and were scrambled more than 20 times in response to Russian aircraft flying close to NATO airspace.
Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, visited RAF Lossiemouth and the St Fergus Gas Plant on Saturday, 2nd August, where she outlined HM Government’s support to Scotland’s energy and defence sectors. Reeves highlighted government support for the Aberdeen Acorn Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and the ordering of three new E-7 Wedgetail airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. In a statement, Reeves said:
We’re seizing the huge potential and opportunities that Scotland has on offer. Whether it’s in defence to keep the UK safe, or clean energy to power all corners of the country.
HM Government published a new fact sheet outlining Britain’s support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. In total, the UK has committed up to £21.8 billion to Kyiv, including £13 billion in military aid, £5.3 billion in non-military support and £3.5 billion cover limit in export finance. The factsheet also highlighted Britain’s leading diplomatic role in supporting Ukraine and sanctioning Russian assets.
Last week, the Scottish Government approved one of the world’s largest offshore wind farms, 38 kilometres from the East Lothian coast. The Berwick Bank project is planned to include up to 307 turbines, with an installed generation capacity of 4.1 gigawatts (GW) – enough to power more than six million homes annually. Following the announcement, Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, stated:
...this decision…puts us within touching distance of our offshore wind targets to deliver clean power by 2030 – boosting our mission to make Britain a clean energy superpower.
Analysis by the Financial Times found that the ‘true cost’ of the planned Sizewell C nuclear power plant could reach £100 billion when financing and lifetime costs are accounted for. This is well above HM Government figures of approximately £38 billion. Sizewell C, which is due to become operational in the late 2030s, is one of two large-scale nuclear power projects currently being built in Britain, alongside the Hinkley Point C power plant.
How competitors frame Britain
TASS reported on an apparent plan by the UK and US to ‘nominate’ Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former Commander-in-Chief and current Ambassador to the UK, for President of Ukraine at a ‘secret meeting in the Alps’. The report came from Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), with the secret plan supposedly aiming to ‘reset Ukraine-West relations’. Another example of the paranoia driving Russian thinking towards NATO and Ukraine.
Following the remarks by John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, in which he stated Britain was ready to fight in the Indo-Pacific to support Taiwan, the Global Times released an editorial stating that ‘the Taiwan Straits are not a “projection screen” for Britain’s imperial nostalgia…nor an arena for countries to show off their geopolitical relevance’. The piece went on to warn that the UK should ‘respect’ the One China principle and that ‘China’s strategic resolve, military preparedness and unwavering will to defend national reunification cannot be shaken by a few warmongering remarks from some Western figures’. Britain stating its strong commitment to its Indo-Pacific allies and partners, especially one which faces increasing pressure from Beijing, is not imperial nostalgia, but rather understanding the threat posed by the PRC to the free and open nations in the region.
Operation CHESSMAN: UK defence activities on opposite sides of the world
The packed itinerary of the Carrier Strike Group 2025 deployment to the Indo-Pacific, aided by some cracking photo opportunities, has absorbed most of the defence-related headlines in the UK. But, closer to home, Britain’s NATO activities have quietly continued their vital role through participating in Operation CHESSMAN.
Operation CHESSMAN was a four-month RAF deployment to Poland to support air policing operations along NATO’s eastern flank. The operation is a reminder that the UK’s choice is not between the Euro-Atlantic or the Indo-Pacific, and that it is more than capable of pursuing its interests in both regions simultaneously.
The benefits of the RAF taking part in Operation CHESSMAN, alongside aircraft from the Polish and Swedish air forces, are numerous. RAF pilots built up their experience of conducting joint operations with allied forces (and with different aircraft, such as the Swedish Gripen and Polish Mig-29s and F-16s), and it demonstrated Britain’s continuing resolve to support NATO allies to defend and deter against outside threats.
The operation is also a reminder of the UK’s capabilities. In many ways, 2025 has been a painful year for British defence efforts as they go through a period of long-delayed and underfunded recapitalisation. Yet, even on a ‘bad day’, the UK has shown that it can simultaneously send (half) a sovereign Carrier Strike Group to the Indo-Pacific to exercise with allies on the other side of the world while also patrolling the skies of eastern Europe – amid myriad other concurrent operations. Few nations on Earth possess such abilities.
It is easy to become a pessimist when looking at Britain’s defence efforts. The list of problems is long, and the reasons behind them are many. One of the key factors has been the lack of political will to prioritise, the result being that the UK maintains a wide spectrum of capabilities but often by razor-thin margins. Yet, it is well known that rebuilding a capability from scratch is many times harder than building out from an existing base, small as that may be.
With defence investment set to rise to 3.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over the next decade – although it seems that the rises over the near term will be modest for now – Britain is in a good position to build out certain capabilities it has retained at low levels – levels where its allies will struggle to introduce these capabilities if they have not previously possessed them.
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