Welcome to the 51st Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
Last week, Emmanuel Macron, President of France, flew to Britain for the first state visit by a French President since 2008. Nearly a decade after the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU), it was a sign of the improving relations between London and Paris, with both sides hailing the closer relationship as vital to their national interests.
In the worsening geopolitical environment, and with the ever-increasing evidence that European nations must rearm, defence was at the heart of the visit. The result was a declaration to modernise UK-French defence and security cooperation,which laid out six key areas to enhance defence cooperation between the two countries. These included:
Deepening cooperation on nuclear deterrents;
Overhauling the existing Combined Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) into the Combined Joint Force, refocusing it on the Euro-Atlantic and warfighting at scale to deter potential adversaries; and
Establishing an ‘Entente Industrielle’ to enhance capability and industrial cooperation in defence.
While in the early stages of development, this move is encouraging. Now, however, words must be followed up with action.
Welcome back to The Cable!
The UK-led Carrier Strike Group (CSG), alongside British Army and Royal Air Force (RAF) personnel, is taking part in Exercise TALISMAN SABRE 2025 between 13th July and 4th August. More than 35,000 military personnel from 19 countries are participating in the exercise, which is taking place across northern Australia, Christmas Island and Papua New Guinea. TALISMAN SABRE 2025 is the largest exercise conducted in Australia and will consist of live-fire exercises and field training activities, incorporating force preparation activities, amphibious landings, ground force manoeuvres, and air combat and maritime operations.
Poppy Gustafsson, Minister for Investment, was in Tokyo last week to sign a new partnership with top Japanese trading company Sumitomo Corporation. The Sumitomo Corporation aims to facilitate £7.5 billion of investment into key UK infrastructure and clean energy projects by 2035. Gustafsson is currently on a trade mission to Japan and South Korea, meeting a range of investors and businesses to encourage further investment into Britain.
The National Audit Office published a report on the F-35 Lightning II Joint Combat Aircraft programme in the British military, focused on procurement and management of these advanced fighter jets. The report highlights ongoing issues which negate the effectiveness of the F-35 Lightning II in service with the RAF and Royal Navy, revealing that only a third of the UK fleet were ‘full mission capable’ last year. Likewise, issues in procuring additional aircraft, a lack of long range air-to-surface weapons and cost overruns are serious long-term issues for the programme. Finally, personnel gaps continue to hamper the effectiveness of the fleet. These are particularly acute for engineers, pilots, flying instructors and cyber warfare officers.
Britain is set to deepen relations with countries across the Indo-Pacific to bring together UK and Southeast Asian innovation and technology to drive economic growth and create new business opportunities at key meetings in Malaysia on 11th July. David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, will participate in the region’s main security forum – the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) - for the first time as Guest of Chair. Additionally, Lammy will join the ASEAN Foreign Ministerial Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, and will meet with Anwar Ibrahim, Prime Minister of Malaysia, and Mohamad Hasan, Foreign Minister of Malaysia, to ‘reinforce the shared ambition to elevate the relationship between the UK and Malaysia to a Strategic Partnership’.
Lammy also visited Singapore over the weekend, where he gave a speech on Britain’s relationship with Southeast Asia and the digitisation of trade and foreign policy. Highlighting the UK’s increasing involvement in the Indo-Pacific, Lammy stated:
‘The Indo-Pacific matters to the UK. ASEAN will be the world’s fastest-growing economic bloc over the next decade…Over the past year, we have been delivering on our promise to bring our economies closer together…But we want to go much further…We’re working with ASEAN on their Power Grid and economic resilience.’
He congratulated Singapore for its historical focus on cutting-edge technology and called for Southeast Asia, with the help of Britain, to build a free and open Indo-Pacific and harness new technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) to transform the countries’ economies and governmental institutions for the 21st century, stating:
‘In an age of ever-accelerating speed and complexity, we need the tools to match…We live in a volatile world. Technology is reshaping our societies, making power more diffuse…Diplomacy in 2025 needs machine speed and a human touch. It can help us to make better decisions amidst rising uncertainty.’
On 14th July, HM Government officially announced the start of construction of Port Talbot’s electric arc furnace project. This follows the closure of Port Talbot’s last blast furnace in October 2024. The electric arc furnace is expected to be operational by late 2027 and will reduce the site’s carbon emissions by approximately 90%.
A new agreement to co-develop Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) has been signed by Britain and Czechia. This Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) will ‘unlock’ new opportunities for industrial collaboration as well as the potential for the UK and Czechia to export SMRs to other countries in Europe. Additionally, it will support the delivery of up to six SMRs in Czechia, to be built by Rolls-Royce. In response to the news, Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, stated:
‘This agreement will put the UK back where it belongs – at the very forefront of the global race on nuclear energy, working in lockstep with our Czech partners to deliver economic growth, clean energy and highly-skilled jobs for both nations.’
How competitors frame Britain
TASS reported on an interview with Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, in which he stated that geopolitics rather than the ideological conflict of the 20th century ‘hampered’ relations between Russia and the ‘West’. Putin went on to claim that for Britain and France, their animosity towards Moscow is caused by London and Paris blaming Russia for the dismantling of their colonial empires. While geopolitical interests have indeed played a key role in the antagonism between Britain and Russia since the 19th century, contemporary relations between the two countries have worsened due to the Kremlin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and numerous covert operations on British soil.
Russia Today published propaganda which claims that the ‘West’ wishes to destroy Russia and that ‘World War Three has already begun’. It goes on to state that the coming decades ‘will be turbulent’ and that ‘Russia must fight for its rightful place in a new world order’, before warning that ‘European powers like Britain, France, and Germany must be made to understand they are vulnerable…Provocations must be met swiftly and decisively.’ Quite pointed threats emerging from Russian state media – while nothing new, it does demonstrate that the Kremlin already considers itself at war with the UK and other free and open nations.
Entente Amicale and competing visions of the future of Europe
Macron’s announcement that the Bayeux Tapestry would be provided on loan to the British Museum provided an apt backdrop to the latest phase of British-French relations. The Tapestry is a reminder that – to put it mildly – Paris and London have had complicated relations over the last 1,000 years. Macron’s speech, Lancaster House 2.0 and the Northwood Declaration all signalled that a new phase of warmer relations is on the horizon, but it is important to remember there remain a number of divergent interests which will be difficult to manage. If not managed successfully, they could jeopardise some of the welcome recent announcements for deeper defence cooperation.
The two most obvious sticking points in the national security sphere are, firstly, differing approaches to the future of European security, and secondly, continued defence industrial competition.
Both the UK and France have recognised that the future of deterrence in Europe will involve a much smaller American presence than there has been over the last seven decades. The British approach is twofold; to keep the United States (US) in as long as possible – to buy time for European countries to manage the transition – and to keep transatlantic cooperation as strong as possible even after this transition is completed, thus fostering a world of differing theatre priorities, but with continued cooperation on shared threats.
France sees things differently and views the current situation as an opportunity to push for greater European ‘strategic autonomy’. This is laid out in French strategic documents, and evidenced by recent announcements related to potential changes to French nuclear doctrine and increasing EU attention to its role in foreign and defence policy – where these have historically been left either to North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) or individual members.
Intertwined with this will be continued competition between French defence firms and UK-based defence firms. This is true both within Europe and beyond. Paris wants to see the EU make it harder for non-EU defence firms to operate in the EU in order to maximise the opportunities for French defence exports, even if this means it will be slower for EU members to acquire the capabilities they need – especially so if American assets need to be backfilled.
France has announced plans for its defence budget for 2027 to be double what it was in 2017. Though both Britain and France have committed to the NATO ‘5%’ (really 3.5%) pledge, if London is slower to make increases, Paris will wield greater influence in the next few years.
Both countries will benefit from Lancaster House 2.0 and the Northwood Declaration, as will NATO’s overall posture. Careful management of competing visions will be required to maintain these benefits.
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Err - I think not . They are just in the process of allowing 2 million plus Gazans into France . The Channel crossing boat business just went gangbusters ……