Summit, strategy, ceasefire: Security’s central significance
The Cable | No. 25.2025
Welcome to the 48th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
This week sees the United Kingdom (UK) participating in another international summit; this time the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit held in The Hague. Strengthening the alliance’s collective defence and deterrence capabilities is a top priority, with Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, recommending member states increase defence spending to 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – also the preference of Donald Trump, President of the United States (US).
Although Britain agreed to increase defence spending to 5%, and reiterated this in Tuesday’s National Security Strategy – going beyond the targets of 2.5% by 2027 and 3% by the next Parliament set in the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) – the proposal has not been met with unanimous approval within NATO. Notably, Spain has announced its refusal to commit to 5% of GDP – suggesting a 2.1% target instead (although in 2024 it spent less than 1.3%) – and Trump has said that the 5% target should not apply to the US. While America is leading ceasefire efforts in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, European NATO members remain focused on Ukraine and the challenges to defence stemming from Russia’s aggression against its neighbour.
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Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, talked to a number of world leaders in the past week, including:
On 22nd June, Sir Keir held a phone call with Trump to discuss the unfolding conflict in the Middle East. The two leaders discussed the US action taken against Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities, agreeing that Iran should be prevented from developing nuclear weapons. They also stressed their desire for Iran to return to the negotiating table.
Also on 22nd June, the Prime Minister spoke to Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada. They discussed the Iran-Israel conflict, and reaffirmed their support for a diplomatic solution to be reached.
On 23rd June, Sir Keir met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, in Downing Street. The two discussed NATO’s support for Ukraine and the importance of ensuring the Ukrainian Armed Forces are sufficiently equipped to defend the country. Before this meeting, His Majesty King Charles III hosted Zelenskyy at Windsor Castle. The Prime Minister also spoke with the Ukrainian President at the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada on 17th June, to discuss increasing economic pressure on Vladimir Putin, President of Russia.
On 16th June, David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, arrived in Pakistan on the first official visit by a British Foreign Secretary since 2021. Lammy met with Shehbaz Sharif, Prime Minister of Pakistan, and reiterated British support for the steps taken by Pakistan and India to secure a ceasefire after the hostilities between the two nations in May.
On 22nd June, Dame Barbara Woodward, UK Permanent Representative to the United Nations (UN), delivered a statement at the emergency UN Security Council meeting on Iran. She affirmed British support for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran-Israel conflict, as well as for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to be respected and Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
On 23rd June, Mohammad Yasin MP, UK Trade Envoy to Pakistan, began a three-day visit to Karachi and Islamabad. He met with senior Pakistani governmental officials and business leaders to discuss trade and investment, as well as lay the groundwork for the UK-Pakistan Trade Dialogue set to launch later in 2025.
His Majesty’s (HM) Government published its Clean Energy Industry Sectors Plan on 23rd June. The plan provides a governmental target of doubling investment in clean energy by 2035 – amounting to more than £30 billion – and includes earmarking a further £700 million for the Great British Energy project to invest in clean energy supply chains. The plan is expected to generate thousands of jobs in coastal towns and industrial centres, and suggests that the Clean Industry Bonus scheme, which encourages offshore wind power investment in sustainable British supply chains, could be expanded to include other renewable energy sectors such as hydrogen and onshore wind power.
As the Iran-Israel conflict has intensified, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) announced on 23rd June that a Royal Air Force (RAF) flight evacuating British nationals from Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories had departed from Ben Gurion Airport outside Tel Aviv. Vulnerable British nationals, alongside their immediate family members, were first flown to Cyprus before transferring to a civilian charter flight to the UK.
On 24th June, HM Government published the National Security Strategy (NSS), which builds upon the SDR to identify the challenges which Britain faces in the 21st century and creates a ‘strategic framework’ to address them. The 55-page document incorporates the ‘China Audit’, detailing HM Government’s strategy towards the People’s Republic of China (PRC), which is increasingly positioning itself as an adversary to the UK and its allies and partners. The NSS also draws together findings from other governmental projects, namely the Strategic Security Review, AUKUS Review, Resilience Strategy, and the Industrial and Trade Strategies.
Also on 24th June, HM Government announced that Britain will purchase 12 F-35A Lightning II Joint Combat Aircraft for the Royal Air Force (RAF), which will be equipped with nuclear capabilities in order to contribute to NATO’s airborne nuclear mission. This is a welcome move for the UK’s defence capabilities, with the expansion of Britain’s nuclear arsenal having been recommended by the Council on Geostrategy prior to the publication of the SDR.
How competitors frame Britain
TASS reported on a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) which warned of a ‘British-Ukrainian terrorist tandem’ planning acts of sabotage on Russian soil to prolong the conflict and derail the ‘US-Russian negotiation process’. Evidently, the SVR does not recognise the hypocrisy of accusing the UK of promoting terrorism in Russia, considering the Kremlin’s previous atrocities in Britain.
The Global Times published an article on the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) response to the Royal Navy’s offshore patrol vessel HMS Spey transiting the Taiwan Strait, reporting that Guo Jiakun, Spokesperson for the PRC’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that the PRC ‘firmly opposes any country making provocations or threatening China’s sovereignty and security in the name of freedom of navigation’. Such a statement being issued by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is nothing short of ironic given the PRC’s aggressive attitude towards its neighbours’ sovereignty.
NATO’s new target: Implications for Britain
At the ongoing NATO summit in The Hague, alliance members agreed to a new defence spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035. This now replaces HM Government’s pre-existing target of reaching 2.6% by 2027 (including intelligence spending), then 3% during the next Parliament (meaning 2034 by the latest). The last time that the UK invested over 5% of GDP on defence was towards the tail end of the Cold War in 1986; Britain spent, on average, 6.4% of GDP on defence across that prolonged period of near-war geopolitical competition.
This commitment, especially one to be taken up by the whole of the alliance (though far less enthusiastically by some members), is a welcome and significant step. That just a little over ten years ago in Wales a 2% target was agreed shows just how much the geopolitical situation has worsened in a short period of time.
However, there are a number of caveats to this figure, which means it is not quite the giant leap it appears on paper. Of course, on the other hand, it also means that it is more achievable than some would complain.
The 5% figure is divided into two segments: 3.5% on ‘core defence’ and 1.5% on defence-related activities, such as infrastructure resilience or cyber security. According to HM Government’s announcement on agreeing to the commitment, it claimed that, using the new NATO estimates, the UK would reach 4.1% by 2027. The assumption, therefore, should be that, by virtue of including areas which Britain is already spending on, it has hit the 1.5% target on defence-related activities. This means in reality that the gap is only an extra 0.9% on ‘core defence’ spending – only 0.5% above what HM Government had initially planned to do. An extra 0.9% of GDP spent on defence investment this year would result in an extra £25 billion-£30 billion.
This is still a significant sum of money though, and it would go a long way in enabling the UK to boost the capabilities of its armed forces. This shows that the commitment is far more manageable than headline figures suggest, especially when factoring in the ten-year timeframe.
What is more important is the follow through. Later this year, HM Government will produce a Defence Investment Plan which will – hopefully – explain how much will be spent by which date, and on what.
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