Rocky relations: World leaders come together for the G7 summit
The Cable | No. 24.2025
Welcome to the 47th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
This week, the Group of Seven (G7) summit is taking place in Canada. The leaders descending on the Canadian Rockies face a daunting number of global crises, from the sudden escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran into a full-scale air war and Russia’s renewed offensive in Ukraine to growing economic instability and fractures in the free and open alliance following the return of Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), to the White House.
The summit has been overshadowed by divisions between the world leaders, exacerbated by Trump leaving early to manage America’s response to the unfolding crisis in the Middle East. But for Britain there have been successes: Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, signed a deal with Trump removing some trade barriers between the United Kingdom (UK) and US, and agreed with Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, to deepen bilateral relations.
Welcome back to The Cable!
Sir Keir arrived in Canada for the G7 summit on 14th June, and was hosted by Carney for talks on the 15th. The pair discussed the situation in the Middle East and the need for de-escalation in the region. They also discussed the potential to advance defence and economic ties between the two nations, with Carney confirming that Canada would ratify the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). In a joint statement, the two prime ministers also agreed to set up a joint task force to ‘turbocharge’ areas of mutual interest, including in developing new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), bio-manufacturing and quantum communications. This taskforce will also advance progress towards a wider UK-Canada Free Trade Deal.
Following the start of Israel’s air campaign against Iran last week, Sir Keir has been engaged in a diplomatic push with several world leaders to de-escalate the conflict:
On 13th June, Sir Keir spoke with Trump, where they discussed the ongoing military action and agreed on the importance of diplomacy and dialogue.
The Prime Minister also held a call with Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, with Sir Keir stating that Israel has a right to self-defence but reiterating the need for a diplomatic solution.
On 14th June, the Prime Minister spoke to Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, and Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. In both calls, Sir Keir agreed on the need for a diplomatic solution to the conflict in the Middle East, and stated that Britain will make the region a priority at the G7 summit.
On Wednesday 11th June, Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer, unveiled the Spending Review, detailing how His Majesty’s (HM) Government will invest in government departments for the rest of this Parliament. Overall departmental spending is set to rise by 2.3%, but certain departments – such as the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and the Home Office – are expected to see cuts. The big winners of this Spending Review are the Ministry of Defence (MOD), the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and the Department for Health and Social Care, while capital investment in infrastructure is also set to rise.
HM Government announced on 16th June that the next Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) will be a woman for the first time. Blaise Metreweli has been an intelligence officer since 1999, and will take over from Sir Richard Moore in the autumn. Metreweli is currently serving as Director General ‘Q’ – responsible for technology and innovation in MI6 – and has previously held a Director-level role in MI5.
The MOD announced on 13th June that the British Army had successfully trialled new tactics for using multiple autonomous systems by a single operator. The next stage of the trial will apply the concept to further missions, including deploying swarming drones in an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance role. Following battlefield lessons learnt from Ukraine and a greater emphasis on autonomous systems in the Strategic Defence Review, the UK military is expected to continue to develop new capabilities for these systems.
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, delivered his 2025 Mansion House speech on 13th June, in which he highlighted the destabilising effect of rapid technological change, stating:
A century ago, our world was experiencing what the great historian Adam Tooze called a deluge of modernity. New technologies…new industries…shifted the balance of power…2025 is also a molten moment…when the earth moves. What we are living through is in fact a Great Remaking…as modernity leaps forward and reshapes geopolitics. In 2025, technology is power.
Lammy also acknowledged that the world is entering a multipolar era and that Britain should build stronger relations with emerging middle powers and nations from the so-called ‘Global South’, calling for ‘...new constellations and coalitions which give us all a seat at the table’.
How competitors frame Britain
Russia Today interviewed Sergei Lavrov, Foreign Minister of Russia, in which he claimed that Britain was ‘100% helping Ukraine to stage terrorist acts’. The belief in Russia that the UK was directly involved in Operation SPIDER’S WEB is another example of the Kremlin’s obsession with British intelligence services being behind every attack in the country.
In a similar vein, Sputnik International released propaganda stating that the UK and Ukraine are planning ‘possible Baltic Sea provocation against Russia’, including a ‘torpedo attack on a US Navy ship’ according to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). Another example of the Russian state media’s long-term campaign to churn out complete falsehoods about shadowy British plots against its interests.
Operation RISING LION: Lessons for the UK from the air and missile campaign unfolding in the Middle East
Beginning on 12th June, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) unleashed a large-scale air campaign against Iran, with priority targets so far being Iranian air defences, nuclear facilities and senior military figures. This has led to several days of exchanges between the IAF and Iranian missile forces, which have launched a number of salvoes of strike weapons – primarily ballistic missiles – at targets in Israel.
A number of lessons should be drawn from the fighting so far for the British Armed Forces, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) more broadly. The first is that, despite what many proponents of the drone revolution (citing the fighting in Ukraine as evidence) have claimed, long-range large payload air power is still vital and cannot be replicated. The IAF has, within 48 hours, achieved air superiority over Iran; essentially allowing them free rein in payload choice and loitering time. Without modern combat aircraft, as well as their enablers, such as in-flight refuelling tankers, this operation would not have been possible.
Britain and its NATO allies would do well to heed this lesson. Air superiority, if/when achieved, is still as decisive as it ever was. Though Russian air defences are far more sophisticated, more layered and more dense than those of Iran, drone strike weapons should be seen as a complement to NATO air power, not a means of replacing it. Investment in NATO air power should not be tapered to enable investment in attack drones.
The second lesson – related to the first – is on the importance, but limits, of Integrated Air and Missile Defences (IAMD). Israel has one of the most capable IAMD networks in the world, aided by the fact that it has a small geographical area to defend. Israel’s missile defences intercepted most of the Iranian counter-attacks, which featured hundreds of ballistic missiles over several days. But interceptor missiles are expensive and take time to build. Israel is now in a race against munition stocks to find and eliminate Iran’s ballistic missile launchers (evidence shows these are now one of the new priority targets); no easy feat given the size and terrain of Iran.
This campaign should serve as a reminder of the urgency with which NATO, and the UK in particular (given decades of underinvestment in this capability area), should expand its IAMD capabilities. Russia is estimated to produce hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles each month. In order to buy time for NATO air power to achieve air superiority and eliminate Russian launch platforms, NATO needs wider missile coverage and, more crucially, far deeper stocks of interceptor missiles.
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