Britain enters key trade agreement with Asian and Pacific nations
The Cable | No. 23.2024
Welcome to the 23rd Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy. This will be our last Cable until 7th January 2025.
As we head into the final weeks of 2024, the world shows no sign of slowing down. Russia continues to launch attacks on Ukraine, South Korean legislators have impeached their president following his unsuccessful coup attempt, and the international community continues to watch the fallout following the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.
For the United Kingdom (UK), there has been a flurry of diplomatic activity: David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, visited the Caribbean; the agreement between Britain and Mauritius over the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) came under pressure; and fresh from his trip to the Arabian Gulf, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, travelled to Tallinn, Estonia for the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) Leaders’ Summit.
Welcome back to The Cable.
Britain joins a global trade agreement with economic and geopolitical implications
On 15th December, Britain became the 12th member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a trade agreement between Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. As the first European country to join the CPTPP, Britain will gain greater access to a market of over 500 million people which makes up approximately 13% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
While the immediate economic benefits to the UK will be limited – by His Majesty’s (HM) Government’s own calculations, joining the trade agreement will add only £2 billion a year to the British economy – there is significant potential for future growth. This results from the expected expansion of the CPTPP in the coming years and the existing membership of several nations whose economies are developing fast.
More important than economic advantage, joining the CPTPP provides an opportunity to enhance the UK’s geopolitical position. As the second biggest economy in the group, Britain will have considerable leverage within the CPTPP, which can be used by HM Government to pursue its national interests and guide the bloc in a direction that favours the UK. However, Britain will have to navigate certain obstacles, such as the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) application to join the CPTPP.
Key diplomacy
The recent agreement for Britain to cede sovereignty of the BIOT over to Mauritius, is now under pressure following Navin Ramgoolam, the newly elected Prime Minister of Mauritius, submitting a counter-proposal to HM Government ‘aimed at ensuring that the final agreement aligned with the nation’s interests.’ While not officially confirmed, the leasing of the joint British-American military base on Diego Garcia for 99 years appears to be the main point of contention for the new government in Port Louis. With the incoming administration in the United States (US) believed to be unhappy with the deal as well, the future of the BIOT may not yet be sealed.
On 16th December, Lammy and John Healey, Secretary of Defence, hosted Penny Wong, Foreign Minister of Australia, and Richard Marles, Defence Minister of Australia, for the annual bilateral ministerial meeting known as AUKMIN. These talks focused on boosting economic growth and enhancing defence partnerships between the two English-speaking countries. This includes:
Confirmation that the UK Carrier Strike Group to the Indo-Pacific in 2025 will visit Australia, and will take part in a multinational military exercise;
Agreement to extend Australian support for training Ukrainian Armed Forces through OPERATION INTERFLEX;
Establishing a new submarine programme office in Bristol, which will aid the coordination and integration of British and Australian AUKUS programmes and supply chains;
Committing to further enhance cooperation on climate action, including climate finance, with HM Government to support Australia's bid to host the United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP 31) in 2026.
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria on 8th December, Lammy confirmed that HM Government is in contact with key rebel organisations including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – which remains a proscribed terrorist group. On 16th December, British diplomats met with Ahmad al-Sharaa, the leader of HTS, in Damascus. HM Government also announced £50 million in humanitarian assistance to Syria, and £120,000 to the Organisation of the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).
Last week, Lammy travelled to the Caribbean for bilateral talks with Barbados and Guyana. In his first official visit to the region, these talks focused on climate action, security and tackling organised crime:
In Barbados, Lammy visited locations hit by Hurricane Beryl last summer, where he announced new British funding initiatives to support Caribbean countries in their green energy transition and to protect nature from illegal logging;
In Guyana, Lammy viewed the construction site of a new hospital being built with British support, part of a push by HM Government to expand commercial and construction ties between the two nations as Guyana develops rapidly through its newfound natural resource wealth. Importantly, Lammy also expressed the UK’s ‘steadfast support for Guyanese territorial integrity’ following Venezuelan claims on the oil rich Essequibo region of Guyana. Caracas’ illegitimate claim has grown since it held a referendum on the issue in December 2023, to which the UK responded by sending a gunboat to show support for Guyanese sovereignty.
Defence
Between 16th and 17th December, the JEF Leaders Summit took place in Tallinn. The British-led minilaterial coalition brings together ten nations, including the Netherlands and the Baltic and Nordic nations to provide expeditionary capabilities to supplement the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The summit focused on continuing support for Ukraine, with the potential for Kyiv to join the framework in the future. Likewise, Northern European security and increasing defence spending were key topics of discussion. However, the summit failed to result in any concrete agreement on raising additional funding for defence.
Britain, Japan and Italy have announced the creation of a joint venture to develop the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), which will produce a sixth generation stealth fighter aircraft by 2035. The joint venture, split equally between Britain’s BAE Systems, Italy’s Leonardo and the Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co (JAIEC), will be based in the UK and will be responsible for the development and delivery of the project. This is the latest step of GCAP, following the signing of a trilateral treaty between the three countries in December 2023. There are also discussions on bringing Saudi Arabia as a full partner into the project, but this faces opposition from Japan. As a compromise, Saudi Arabia may become a purely financial participant in the programme.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has confirmed that the British Army has successfully tested its first terrestrial high-energy laser weapon system, mounted on a Wolfhound vehicle. Using a concentrated beam of infra-red light, the weapon successfully targeted and destroyed several drones. Laser weapons provide a significant advantage over conventional systems as they do not require ammunition, meaning they could be used as a cheap alternative to pre-exiting weapon systems, particularly for short range air defence.
Environment and climate
On 16th December, Sir Keir announced a new Green Industrial Partnership with Norway focused on developing renewable energy and carbon capture infrastructure in both countries and in the North Sea. During his whirlwind visit to Norway on Monday, Sir Keir stated that: ‘Our partnership with Norway will make the UK more energy secure, ensuring we are never again exposed to international energy price spikes and the whims of dictators like Putin.’
How Britain is seen overseas
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace released an article analysing the future direction of the British-led JEF. The article argues that Donald Trump’s return to the White House will only quicken the pace of American disengagement from Europe and that Europeans need to take their security into their own hands via frameworks such as the JEF. For the JEF to achieve success, the author states that the minilateral should set out an ambitious programme of military exercises, work closer with NATO and key European capitals such as Berlin and Warsaw, and engage more deeply with Ukraine.
How competitors frame Britain
The PRC’s Embassy to the UK released a statement decrying Members of Parliament (MPs) as ‘shameless’ and ‘arrogant’ following reports of alleged ties between Prince Andrew and Yang Tengbo, a businessman who has been accused of spying for the PRC. The spokesperson went on to claim that the accusations are the result of ‘anti-China clamours made by a handful of UK MPs’ and that ‘they have done nothing but fully reveal their twisted mentality towards China.’ If the PRC wants to improve relations with Britain, should it not stop its ongoing espionage operations within the UK?
The Global Times released an ‘opinion piece’ claiming that the British Broadcasting Company (BBC) has a distinctively ‘anti-China’ bias, using examples such as ‘calling individuals jailed in Hong Kong under the national security law are characterised as “pro-democracy figures”’ and claiming that reporting on recent clashes between the Filipino vessels and the China Coast Guard relies on ‘unverified video supplied by the Philippines.’ The article goes on to state that the BBC’s bias results from chasing anti-Chinese funding. This is an interesting take from a media organisation run directly by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
11th-19th December 2024: Unseen in North Atlantic waters a Royal Navy ballistic missile nuclear submarine was on station for the permanent vigil of Britain’s continuous at sea deterrent. In the Euro-Atlantic there was a flurry of activity, much of it to bring sailors home for Christmas. Two Astute-class nuclear attack submarines, presumably HMS Anson and HMS Astute, returned to Faslane. HMS Dauntless returned to Portsmouth from its deployment to Norway.
The frigate fleet remained very active with HMS Iron Duke being visited by Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, while alongside in Tallinn. HMS St Albans conducted drone attack training in home waters, while, on 16th December, HMS Portland shadowed a Russian convoy transiting the English Channel. Further from home, HMS Lancaster remains deployed in the Western Indian Ocean.
In the South Atlantic, HMS Protector, transiting the Patagonian Canals on the 12th December, and HMS Forth – with the crew showcasing an excellent array of Christmas jumpers – continue to represent British interests in the region.
The rest of the River class ships have been keeping themselves busy: HMS Medway remains deployed in the Caribbean; HMS Trent visited the port of Tangiers in Morocco on the 13th December; HMS Spey was visited by Ian Murray MP, Secretary of State for Scotland, in Singapore; and HMS Tamar conducted training drills in the Pacific.
RFA Mounts Bay returned home for Christmas, being seen in the Solent on the 19th December, having previously been in Gibraltar. RFA Lyme Bay remained in Gibraltar for maintenance.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
Recent reports that the newly elected government in Mauritius wishes to change details of the agreement struck by its predecessor have re-opened the debate in the UK around the status of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). So how does Britain think about its only overseas territory in the Indian Ocean?
Essentially, there are four perspectives:
Legalists are those who believe that International Law and its furtherance are paramount. They believe that the UK’s best interests are served by following international law to the letter to show others how to behave. In relation to BIOT, legalists desire to hand over British sovereignty to Mauritius to avoid any risk that the UK may be in breach of international law.
Sovereignists believe that British sovereignty is paramount and to hand over control of BIOT is detrimental to the UK’s national identity. In particular, they emphasise the potential loss of the large Exclusive Economic Zone surrounding BIOT.
‘Middle groundists’ take a similar, but slightly more realist, approach to the legalists. They believe that UK control over BIOT damages Britain’s relations with so-called ‘middle ground’ or ‘Global South’ countries and that sovereignty should be handed over to build favour with those nations.
‘Power projectionists’ think that the geostrategic importance of BIOT, providing command over the Indian Ocean, means all other arguments should be given minimal consideration. For them, Britain’s continued possession of the air and naval facilities are critical, particularly in an age of worsening geopolitical competition.
Implications
During the Cold War, as Britain surrendered its Indo-Pacific holdings, an alliance of power projectionists and middle groundists dominated strategy. Since the end of the Cold War and the perceived ‘end of History’, the legalists rose to prominence. The utility of the base during the so-called ‘War on Terror’ kept the legalists at bay for a time, but the rise of geostrategic competition has seen a new convergence between the legalists and the middle groundists. This is what led to the rushed deal over BIOT.
A solid case could be made for the middle groundist view over BIOT, but the notion that relinquishing sovereignty will improve Britain’s diplomatic hand are optimistic. It is just as likely that surrendering sovereignty will encourage other middle ground countries to find their own grievances with which to press Britain into providing financial or territorial incentives to buy off their complaints. Given the vital importance of the military facilities in BIOT, especially with the PRC’s rapidly growing maritime strength, handing over sovereignty – even if a lease keeps the base running – seems an enormous risk to take. After all, Mauritius has walked away from agreements before.
This section is named after Gould Francis Leckie, author of An Historical Survey of the Foreign Affairs of Great Britain (1810) – the first modern geopolitical text.
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