Missile production the answer to the Russian threat
The Cable | No. 21.2025
Welcome to the 44th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
Last week, His Majesty’s (HM) Government concluded its deal to hand over the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) to Mauritius. Due to its strategic location in the Indian Ocean, the decision has been the subject of intense debate since negotiations began in 2022. And although Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, has argued that the only way to secure the long-term future of the base was by signing the deal, he has not explained what international legal action could force Britain to relinquish sovereignty of the territory. Is the United Kingdom (UK) giving the territory away to secure international goodwill?
Welcome back to The Cable!
Ukraine faces a Russian blitz
As attempts to bring Russia to the negotiation table continue to falter, Moscow has upped the ante in its aerial campaign, launching over 350 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities on 25th May – the largest attack of the war so far. This massive bombardment is a sign of the increasing quantity and quality of Russian aerial weapons, which is stretching Ukraine’s air defences to the limit. Moscow has used the distraction of ceasefire talks to increase its domestic production of munitions – particularly of Shahed drones – while also benefiting from deliveries of North Korean ballistic missiles. Likewise, Russian forces have adopted new tactics, such as decoy drones, to undermine Ukrainian air defences.
At the same time, Ukraine is facing a growing munitions shortage. With the lack of active support from the United States (US) for Kyiv, and European nations lacking the manufacturing capacity to produce enough interceptor missiles to keep Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure safe, Kyiv is facing a mounting number of successful strikes. If the US is unwilling to deliver the systems and ammunition needed to protect Ukraine from incessant bombardment, the time has come for Britain and its European allies to step up their own support for Ukraine.
There has been significant movement on this front in the last month. On 28th May, Germany signed an agreement with Kyiv to provide a €5 billion (£4.18 billion) military aid package, including air defence munitions and systems. Likewise, the first tranche of Britain’s £2.26 billion loan – backed by profits from frozen Russian assets – was delivered to Ukraine in early May, which will allow Kyiv to buy the military equipment it needs to defend itself.
Innovative solutions, such as the UK’s Raven air defence system, are essential in the short term, but over the long term, greater political will is needed – not only to increase defence spending (to allow for a serious expansion of missile production capabilities in Europe), but also to increase the quantity and variety of Ukraine’s own arsenal of strike weapons. Unless Kyiv is provided with the means to attack Russian launch platforms and weapon stockpiles more successfully, these kinds of bombardments will continue.
Key diplomacy
On 27th May, King Charles III arrived in Canada to deliver the Speech from the Throne, opening the new session of the Canadian Parliament on 28th May. This is his first state visit to the country since becoming King, and the first time a monarch has opened Canada’s Parliament since Queen Elizabeth II in 1977. The invitation from Mark Carney, the new Prime Minister of Canada, to Charles III has been viewed as a riposte to Donald Trump, President of the US, who has repeatedly stated his desire for Canada to become the 51st state of the US.
Sir Keir spoke to a number of world leaders over the last week, the most important being:
On 20th May, the Prime Minister held a phone call with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine. They discussed the recent European Political Community (EPC) Summit in Albania and the latest package of sanctions imposed by HM Government on Russia. Sir Keir also reiterated the UK’s long-term support for Ukraine and the government’s desire to secure a just and lasting peace.
The Prime Minister also hosted Nikos Christodoulides, President of Cyprus, at Downing Street on 21st May. The pair spoke about Sir Keir’s visit to Cyprus in December and agreed to strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries. They also discussed last week’s summit between the UK and the European Union (EU), with Sir Keir thanking Christodoulides for his support in resetting the relationship between the two powers.
On 22nd May, the Prime Minister called Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, President of Egypt. The two discussed the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, agreeing that restrictions on aid must be lifted. Sir Keir also pressed El-Sisi for the release of Alaa Abd El-Fattah, a British national who has been incarcerated in Egypt since 2019.
On 20th May, HM Government announced over 100 new sanctions on Russia, targeting military, energy and finance sectors and individuals in the Kremlin’s disinformation networks. HM Government also stated that it is working with its allies and partners to tighten the Oil Price Cap to restrict oil revenues for Russia further.
Defence
Over five days, the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force (RAF) conducted the largest ever defence Artificial Intelligence (AI) training operation. Operation WINTERMUTE – now on its third iteration – involved military personnel from the Royal Navy and RAF, scientists from the Defence Science Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and representatives from industrial and international partners.
MBDA, the multinational defence company, has announced that it will invest £200 million to expand its Bolton site, working on missile system manufacturing technologies. This investment is expected to more than double the output of MBDA’s Bolton plant by 2028 and expand the company’s apprenticeship programme.
The first Type 26 class frigate has been officially named HMS Glasgow in a ceremony on the River Clyde. HMS Glasgow will be the first of eight of its class, due to replace the Type 23 frigates as the Royal Navy’s primary anti-submarine warfare vessels. HMS Glasgow is expected to enter service by 2028, with the construction of the entire class scheduled to be completed in the mid-2030s.
Environment and climate
According to the Financial Times and Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), an energy research organisation, planning delays, supply chain issues and rising costs are likely to see the UK miss its 2030 offshore wind targets. While HM Government has stated it wishes to reach at least 43 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind generation by 2030, a new report by BNEF suggests that only 33GW will be in operation by then. As a result, the upcoming seventh Contracts for Difference (CfDs) auction for offshore wind projects will be a critical moment for the British wind power sector.
Carbon Brief, a climate and energy research organisation, has published an analysis stating that gas is the main culprit for high energy prices in the UK, due to wholesale gas prices more than doubling in recent years. Since 2021, the average British household has seen a 54% increase in their energy bills, or around £324 more per year. The analysis highlights that the UK’s high exposure to global gas markets is a critical factor in current high energy prices.
How Britain is seen overseas
International Politics Quarterly published an article focused on the recent UK-European Union (EU) summit and the shift towards renewed cooperation in the post-Brexit era. The piece argues that the agreement is a step in the right direction, and that while it doesn’t undo all the challenges which have arisen from the UK leaving the EU, it will help Britain consolidate its position as a critical power in European security at a time of increased geopolitical threat.
How competitors frame Britain
Russia Today has published propaganda calling the new agreement to cede sovereignty of the BIOT to Mauritius a ‘clear example of post-colonialism’. The author states that the deal demonstrates the ‘reluctance of Western powers to relinquish their colonial past’ and that losing control of the base would be ‘too painful’ for the UK and the US, who wish to ‘uphold global hegemony at the expense of the interests of the native inhabitants of the formerly colonised states’. An interesting narrative for Russian state media to take, considering that the Kremlin is invading Ukraine in an imperialistic war of conquest.
Sputnik International interviewed Andrey Kelin, the Russian Ambassador to the UK, in which Kelin argued that bilateral relations would improve if British officials stopped issuing ultimatums. He went on to say that if UK diplomatic staff learned ‘to speak respectfully and listen to what they are told…the security situation in Europe would change for the better’. Typical Kremlin hot air and self-victimisation – the only way for European security to improve is for Moscow to end its invasion of Ukraine.
The utility of overseas bases
The furore over HM Government’s deal regarding Diego Garcia has highlighted an important fact about the value of the UK as a partner and ally: it has incredible global reach, provided by a wide sprinkling of islands and territories which it can use in military operations or crises. The Overseas Territories provide many of the known sites, as do a number of former colonies, but by some accounts, Ministry of Defence (MOD) personnel can be found in 145 nations across the seven continents.
It is difficult to explain how useful this is to those who take such overseas presence for granted. Still more valuable are the territories where Britain administers bases, as these can be utilised to defend the global interests of the UK. Newly risen powers, such as India and the PRC, are clearly developing both the appetite and ability to project military power overseas in defence of their national interests, but lack the ability to develop these easily. The PRC’s appetite for bases has thus far been limited to one in Djibouti and creating military outposts in the South China Sea.
These bases fulfil a number of functions: primarily as staging posts for military operations. Take Diego Garcia, for example, where both British and American air elements flew out of its airfield for both Iraq Wars and the war in Afghanistan, or the Ascension Islands, where the UK staged its forces for the Falklands War. A second function is one of defence diplomacy: despite complex base politics, host nations gain close security relationships with the UK and an implicit defence guarantee, as well as a steady income from leasing.
It is true – as shown with Mauritius – that relations with former colonies are more complicated than those with new partners. But these problems are not insurmountable – as the logistics post in Singapore has shown – the key is ensuring that these bases meet the national security interests of both nations and that arrangements are built to weather the various political storms.
If you found this Cable useful, please subscribe or pledge your support!
What do you think about this Cable? Why not leave a comment below?
 | A guest post by
|