Britain’s top spy calls for vigilance amid growing global dangers
The Cable | No. 21.2024
Welcome to the 21st Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
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On 29th November, Sir Richard Moore, Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service, visited Paris to meet Nicolas Lerner, his French counterpart. The pair commemorated the 120th anniversary of the Entente Cordiale and discussed the increasing security threats the two countries face. In a speech during his visit, Sir Richard highlighted the deep security and intelligence relationship between Britain and France over the last 120 years, before warning of the grave geopolitical situation both countries face today:
In 37 years in the intelligence profession, I have never seen the world in a more dangerous state. And the impact on Europe – our shared European home – could hardly be more serious.
Sir Richard highlighted the enduring threat from terrorism and the emergence of the CRINK – the growing relationship between the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, Iran and North Korea – which is attempting to undermine the open international order.
However, he stressed that while the deepening relationship between the CRINK nations is a concern, is it transactional: ‘...there is no real trust or respect, its roots are shallow.’ There are limits to the partnership.’ It will become clear what those limits are in the months and years ahead.
Key diplomacy
Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, held calls with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine and Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany, on 28th November. In the call with Zelenskyy, Sir Keir reiterated Britain’s ‘steadfast support’ for Kyiv, with the two national leaders discussing Ukraine’s long-term future and the importance of increased investment in European security. In his conversation with Scholz, Sir Keir highlighted the need to tackle illegal immigration and trafficking gangs. The two men also discussed how best to support Ukraine through the coming winter.
On 25th November, David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, visited Italy for the Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers’ meeting in Fiuggi – the last meeting of the group before the Trump administration takes power in the United States (US). The talks concluded with the release of a statement which focused on continuing to assist Ukraine through 2025, supporting ceasefire efforts in the Middle East and the G7’s commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific.
On 29th November, His Majesty’s (HM) Government published its critical mineral Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Indonesia, which was agreed upon in September 2024. This strategic partnership will see greater collaboration between commercial and governmental organisations, while also increasing information sharing between governments to make mining more sustainable and safe. Indonesia is one of the largest producers of critical minerals, in particular nickel, cobalt, lithium, graphite and rare earths.
Defence
On 2nd December, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) released a statement of intent to develop a new defence-industrial strategy to boost economic growth and enhance British security. The new strategy will focus on investing in UK defence firms, streamlining procurement processes and strengthening the resilience of British supply chains and industry for a more competitive world. Consultations on the defence-industrial strategy will continue into spring 2025 running in parallel to the ongoing Strategic Defence Review.
The Royal Navy has signed an information sharing agreement with Global Fishing Watch (GFW) to tackle ‘global illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing (IUUF)’. HM Government already works closely with GFW to tackle IUUF across the world, a significant issue, with around 20% of global catch believed to come from IUUF. Such unsustainable practices are leading to overfishing and the degradation of the maritime environment.
The MOD confirmed that construction has begun on HMS Sheffield, a Type 26 frigate, which will be the fifth of a planned eight such frigates to be built for the Royal Navy. The first Type 26 will enter service in late 2026 or early 2027, with the class expected to serve into the 2060s.
Environment and climate
On 28th November, HM Government announced that it will provide £1.98 billion to the International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank’s fund for the world’s lowest income countries, over the next three years. This funding – a 40% increase over the previous government’s pledge – will be used for projects promoting economic growth, tackling poverty and addressing the impacts of climate change in some of the world’s least developed nations. Due to the financial mechanisms used by the World Bank, the funding provided by HM Government is expected to attract additional capital from the private sector.
The Times has reported that Électricité de France (EDF) is considering a proposal to extend the operating life of Sizewell B, one of Britain’s nuclear power stations, for up to 20 years. EDF, the operator of Britain’s nuclear fleet, originally planned to decommission the power plant – which provides around 3% of the UK’s electricity – in 2035, but if the £700 million proposal is accepted, it will continue to power the country into the 2050s. With the aging of Britain’s nuclear power stations and the slow progress on developing new reactors, life extension plans such as this could be critical for the energy transition and energy security.
How Britain is seen overseas
Bruegel in Brussels published an article arguing for closer trade relations between the UK and the European Union (EU). The article argues that as HM Government intends to ‘reset’ relations with the EU, coupled with the large trade volume between the two and the worsening geopolitical environment, there are strong incentives to cooperate further on trade. With a UK-EU Summit set to take place next year, the author states that ‘both sides [should] agree on the strategic case for reinforced trade cooperation and to prepare the ground for trade negotiations, which could be completed no later than 2026.’
How competitors frame Britain
The Russian foreign ministry released a statement following a new series of sanctions placed on members of the Russian government and organisations by HM Government. The propaganda called the actions a continuation of the ‘unrelating aggressive anti-Russian coming from the UK’ – part of London’s ‘reckless policy to support the neo-Nazi Kiev [sic] regime’. The Russian foreign ministry also banned an additional 30 British citizens from entering Russia, including politicians, journalists and business people. The Kremlin seems to think it will not suffer consequences for launching a war of aggression.
Russia Today published a piece of propaganda in which it accused Britain of working to keep the war in Ukraine going through a ‘secret military operation’. According to the author, this ‘secret operation’ includes plans for stay-behind sabotage actions in Ukraine and disinformation campaigns. More lunacy from Russian state media.
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
23rd November-3rd December 2024: Though out of sight, the Royal Navy’s ballistic missile nuclear submarine continued to deter the most severe threats to British interests from the deep waters of the North Atlantic. Aircraft carriers HMS Queen Elizabeth returned to Portsmouth on 29th November after visiting Hamburg in Germany, while HMS Prince of Wales visited Liverpool. HMS Portland remained in Norway and HMS Iron Duke visited Tallinn in Estonia, reflecting Britain’s vital Northern European interests.
HMS Duncan visited Barcelona in Spain before heading south to pass the Strait of Gibraltar into the Atlantic, while HMS Dauntless participated in Exercise SKY SHARK with the Marine Nationale. Meanwhile, at least two of the Royal Navy’s Astute class nuclear powered attack submarines are deployed; one – possibly HMS Astute – was seen leaving Gibraltar on 29th November.
On the other side of the world, HMS Protector – still in Chile – was under maintenance, preparing for her deployment to Antarctica, while HMS Lancaster visited Muscat in Oman. Offshore Patrol vessel HMS Forth remained on patrol around the Falkland Islands and HMS Medway visited the Turks and Caicos Islands, where she received the islands’ governor. HMS Trent continued to undergo maintenance in Valletta in Malta, HMS Spey received Ian Murray, Secretary of State for Scotland, in Singapore on 30th November, and HMS Tamar left Cairns in Australia on 25th November.
The Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) also continued to support British interests: RFA Lyme Bay received Adm. Sir Ben Key, First Sea Lord, in Gibraltar on 27th November and RFA Mounts Bay arrived in Valletta in Malta on 30th November.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
Following the US presidential election, Donald Trump, President-elect of the US, has been busy nominating candidates for his cabinet and providing more details on his plans for creating a ‘peace deal’ between Russia and Ukraine. This has implications for how Britain thinks about assisting Ukraine; it is still unclear how Trump’s approach will differ from that of HM Government or his predecessor.
Since the mid-2010s, three discourses have dominated how Britain approaches Ukraine:
The ‘pro-Russia’ camp: This includes a peculiar combination of extreme social conservatives who admire Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, for his authoritarianism, and extreme leftists, who see in Russia an anti-capitalist force. Both advocate for allowing the Kremlin free rein across Eastern Europe. The pro-Russia camp is found on the political fringes.
The ‘anti-escalation’ camp: This camp is not necessarily uncritical of Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, but fears Russia’s nuclear arsenal and determination to succeed. It is not opposed to supporting Ukraine, so long as Britain stays out of the conflict. More sizeable than the pro-Russia camp, this group often includes isolationists and so-called ‘realists’, who appear to embrace its logic for their own ideological reasons.
The ‘pro-Ukraine’ camp: This camp has become dominant since 2021. This group believes that support for Ukraine’s independence – described as ‘ironclad’ for ‘as long as it takes’ – is vital in creating a forward bulwark for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) to prevent Russian revisionism from growing or broadening. Besides those supportive of Ukraine, it also attracts traditional British ‘Russia sceptics’, who have also grown in number over the past decade due to Russian aggression towards the UK.
Implications
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Britain viewed Ukraine as something of a corrupt backwater. HM Government chose instead to prioritise relations with Russia. It is often forgotten that during the 2000s and early 2010s, the UK attempted to draw Russia into the Euro-Atlantic order, not least by inviting it into the Group of Seven (G7) and by overlooking Russian transgressions (such as the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko on British soil in 2006 and aggression towards Georgia in 2008).
This changed with Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014. From that moment, Britain began to focus more on Ukraine, even if relations with Russia remained the priority. Pro-Ukrainians advocated for the establishment of Operation ORBITAL in 2015, though ‘anti-escalators’ prevented it from becoming more than a non-lethal training and capacity building exercise.
But as Russian aggression grew, the pro-Ukraine camp grew larger and began to drive the debate – especially in 2021 and 2022. British military assistance was ramped up: though limited, this support proved instrumental in blunting Russia’s initial advance. Although military aid has since expanded significantly – to include long-range weapons, tanks, and a greatly enlarged training programme in Operation INTERFLEX – it has not been commensurate with the rhetoric.
Should Trump decide to attempt to force Ukraine to surrender land in exchange for ‘peace’, it remains unclear how the UK would respond. Will the pro-Ukrainians gain even greater sway, or will the anti-escalators seize the moment?
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