Britain green lights the use of cruise missiles in Russia
The Cable | No. 20.2024
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On 17th November, Joe Biden, President of the United States (US), authorised Ukraine to use American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) mid-range missiles on Russian territory. This move resulted in both the United Kingdom (UK) and France following suit, green lighting the use of Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG long-range cruise missiles by Kyiv. To be accurate, these weapons rely on US technology. Since 20th November, there have been unconfirmed reports Ukrainian forces have used Storm Shadow missiles in the Kursk salient. Although these weapons may not by themselves change the outcome of the war, they will give Ukrainian forces the capability to degrade Russian command-and-control nodes and logistical hubs, while also forcing Moscow to move personnel, material and equipment away from the front.
These authorisations come at a time of increasing uncertainty for Ukraine, as the re-election of Donald Trump, President-elect of the US, brings America’s continued support of Kyiv into question. As a result, His Majesty’s (HM) Government is aiming to enhance its support for Ukraine. At the Group of 20 (G20) summit, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, stated that Britain would ‘ensure Ukraine has what is needed for as long as needed’. Additionally, on 22nd November, in a call with Mark Rutte, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Sir Keir stated his intention to set out the path to spend 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence in spring 2025.
On his return from the G20 summit, Sir Keir gave a speech in Parliament, reiterating his government’s commitment to Ukraine.
After 1,000 days of war – 1,000 days of Ukrainian bravery and sacrifice – I am clear that we must double down on our support. We will not be deterred or distracted by reckless threats…The UK’s support for Ukraine is always for self-defence, and it is proportionate, co-ordinated and agile. It is a response to Russia’s own actions…
Key diplomacy
Following a bilateral meeting between Sir Keir and Narandra Modi, Prime Minister of India, at the G20 summit, the two leaders confirmed that UK-India free trade talks will recommence in the new year. This follows a visit by Catherine West, Minister for the Indo-Pacific, to India last week to ‘deepen partnerships’ with the South Asian giant. Alongside a trade agreement, HM Government seeks to deepen cooperation with India on security, education, technology and tackling climate change.
On 20th November, David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, signed two new agreements with Moldova. The first focused on irregular migration, which will strengthen HM Government’s ability to return Moldovans who have no legal right to be in the UK. The second is a defence and security partnership which will enhance Moldova’s capacity to resist external threats, in particular ‘grey zone’ attacks from Russia. Additionally, Lammy has offered British support to help the Moldovan Government tackle corruption.
On 21st November Sir Keir hosted Prabowo Subianto, President of Indonesia, at 10 Downing Street. The two men discussed how to enhance bilateral ties and work more closely together to ‘address global challenges.’ They also agreed to pursue a new UK-Indonesia Strategic Partnership, which will be launched in 2025. The strategic partnership will focus on sustainable economic development, climate change and the energy transition and will also focus on deeper cooperation in foreign and defence policy.
Defence
John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, announced in Parliament that the Ministry of Defence (MOD) will decommission ageing military equipment to save £500 million over the next five years. This will include the scrapping of the two Albion class amphibious assault ships, the two Wave class tankers, a Type 23 class frigate, more than 30 helicopters and 46 Watchkeeper uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV). The decommissioning will occur early next year and will allow the MOD to redirect resources into acquiring new equipment.
Last week, the MOD announced that Operation INTERFLEX, the British-led multinational military operation to train and support the Armed Forces of Ukraine, has now trained over 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers since it began in July 2022. While troops only receive a short-period of training in Britain, according to a report by the National Audit Office (NAO), 89% of the most recent tranche of trainees stated that they ‘felt better equipped to survive on the battlefield’ following the completion of the training course.
The Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) – the UK-led minilateral group composed of northern European countries and the Netherlands – has concluded Exercise JOINT PROTECTOR 24. The month-long operation in Latvia tested how rapidly the JEF can deploy from across Europe to respond to an emerging threat on NATO’s eastern flank. Ukrainian military officers attended the exercise for the first-time, with JEF personnel looking to learn from Ukraine’s experience fighting Russia’s full scale invasion.
Environment and climate
On 22nd November, the United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP 29) came to a dramatic close with a deal on climate funding being agreed despite criticism from countries in the developing world. Rich countries agreed to increase funding to help poorer nations fight climate change from US$100 billion (£79.6 billion) to US$300 billion (£238 billion) per year by 2035 – a sizable increase but far from the US$1.3 trillion (£1.03 trillion) that the developing countries had been asking for.
How Britain is seen overseas
The Centre for European Policy Analysis released a commentary piece analysing the UK’s semiconductor industry. Outlining the centrality of semiconductors to the global economy, the article shows that Britain is home to ‘Europe’s leading tech ecosystem’ including 16 semiconductor ‘unicorns’ but the sector is increasingly being ‘squeezed’ between the US, European Union (EU), and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). An issue that is compounded by a lack of clarity in HM Government’s tech policies. To counter this, the article argues that Britain’s semiconductor industries require government support and instead of focusing on developing ties with the PRC, Britain should engage instead with the US and the EU.
How competitors frame Britain
Sputnik International released an interview with Yuri Knutov, a Russian military analyst and historian, in which he stated that the US, Britain and France have ‘de facto declared war on Russia’ following the recent missile strikes on Russian territory by Ukraine. Absurd rhetoric. If the three Euro-Atlantic military powers were genuinely at war with Russia, missile strikes from Ukraine would be the least of Moscow’s worries.
The Global Times published an editorial opinion piece stating that the UK should engage with the PRC pragmatically. The article states that British policy towards Beijing has become increasingly hostile over the last decade, but the new Labour government provides a chance to ‘recalibrate’ the relationship. While they don’t see eye to eye on many issues and there are ‘anti-China’ interests in Britain, the authors call for Sir Keir to ‘engage and cooperate’ with the PRC in a pragmatic manner. An improvement in relations with the PRC would require Beijing to act as a sensible and responsible nation on the world stage.
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
16th-22nd November 2024: Though out of sight, the Royal Navy’s ballistic missile nuclear submarine continued to deter the most severe threats to British interests from the depths of the North Atlantic. HMS Queen Elizabeth visited Hamburg in Germany, helping to solidify the recent Trinity House agreement. HMS Portland visited Stavanger in Norway and HMS Iron Duke visited Riga in Latvia, reflecting Britain’s vital interests in Northern Europe.
HMS Duncan left Valletta in Malta on 17th November, while HMS Dauntless prepared to leave Portsmouth on 22nd to visit Brest in France. Meanwhile, at least two of the Royal Navy’s Astute class nuclear powered attack submarines are deployed; one surfaced near Whitsand Bay on 17th November.
On the other side of the world, HMS Protector – still in Chile – was under maintenance preparing for her deployment to Antarctica, while HMS Lancaster continues to support Britain’s military presence in the Middle East. Offshore Patrol vessel HMS Forth remained in patrol around the Falkland Islands and HMS Medway remained in the Caribbean, while HMS Trent underwent maintenance in Valletta in Malta, HMS Spey remained in Southeast Asia, and HMS Tamar paid a port call in Cairns in Australia.
The Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) also continued to support British interests: RFA Lyme Bay left Freetown in Sierra Leone en-route to Gibraltar and RFA Mounts Bay remained in the Eastern Mediterranean.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
COP29 has concluded with a deal agreed on climate finance, but the talks suffered from a lack of global leadership – an issue exacerbated by the looming return of Trump to the White House. However, Britain has used this as an opportunity to push for a greater role in the fight against climate change and to advance its own climate agenda.
Implications
Since the 1990s, three streams of thought have influenced the UK’s climate policy:
The climate pioneers push for strong domestic emission reductions, a commitment to multilateral climate targets, and attempt to use British leverage to advance global mitigation efforts.
The climate moderates, more wary of the costs of the energy transition, hold more cautious policy positions and are open to enhancing energy security and economic growth through fossil fuels and weaker climate targets.
The climate sceptics, whose view has evolved in response to growing public discontent with climate policies and the stagnation of the British economy, often try to water down and delay existing climate targets while also minimising British international commitments.
British governments have oscillated between these schools of thought over the last 25 years. In the 2000s and the period between 2016-2022, Britain pursued global climate leadership, making history with the 2008 Climate Change Act, the first legally binding mitigation target set by a country. In 2019, the UK became the first major economy to enshrine a commitment to Net Zero by 2050 into law. Likewise, at COP26 held in Glasgow in 2021, HM Government announced an ambitious target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 68% by 2030.
However, during the first half of the 2010s the climate moderates came to the fore. While progress continued in cleaning the energy grid – in particular the replacement of coal with offshore wind – cuts were made to certain green policies, including new onshore wind projects, which were banned in England in 2015. Under Rishi Sunak’s premiership, HM Government flirted with climate sceptic policies, with the watering down of previous targets in areas such as transport and housing.
With the return of Labour to government in July 2024, the pendulum has once again swung the other way, with climate change being placed front and centre of its foreign policy and industrial strategy. Yet HM Government faces many challenges to its lofty goals. A stagnant economy and the worsening geopolitical environment will undermine the new government’s plans to take the reins on global climate action, while the rise of the Reform Party and the new ‘Net Zero sceptic’ leader of the Conservatives demonstrates the growing influence of the climate sceptic wing of British politics.
Read more: The trilateral initiative: A minilateral to catalyse Russia’s defeat? – James Rogers and William Freer 24/09/2024
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