Britain prepares for the return of Trump
The Cable | No. 18.2024
Welcome to the 18th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
Donald Trump emerged victorious in the United States (US) presidential election on 5th November, an outcome which will cause seismic change across the world. The re-election of Trump will have significant ramifications for the United Kingdom (UK) and Europe, as in his first term, Trump railed against European countries’ failure to pay for their own defence and threatened to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Likewise, the potential for US tariffs on European goods could weaken already sluggish growth across the continent.
On 6th November, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, called the president-elect to congratulate him on his win and to discuss how the ‘special relationship’ could thrive in the coming years. At the same time, His Majesty’s (HM) Government has engaged with other European countries to prepare for the new American administration and to maintain political and material support for Ukraine as Russia’s war of conquest continues.
Key diplomacy
Sir Keir visited Budapest on 7th November for the European Political Community (EPC) Summit. The fifth such meeting (following the summit held at Blenheim Palace in July 2024) saw dozens of European leaders discuss shared challenges such as illegal immigration and Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. At the summit, Sir Keir chaired a meeting on irregular migration where he called on European partners to identify new ways to tackle the issue across the continent.
While in Budapest, Sir Keir met with several key political leaders, including; Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland, with these discussions focusing on deepening defence partnerships and continuing to support Ukraine.
On 11th November, Sir Keir attended the French Armistice Day Ceremony in Paris – the first British prime minister to do so since Winston Churchill in 1944 – alongside Emmanual Macron, President of France, with both men laying wreaths at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at the Arc de Triomphe. In a meeting before the ceremony, Sir Keir and Macron discussed Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East and illegal migration across the English Channel.
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, travelled to Nigeria and South Africa last week in his first official trip to the African continent. Highlighting the growing status of Africa – particularly in terms of demographics – Lammy called for a new approach to Britain’s diplomatic activities with African countries. During his visit to both nations, Lammy emphasised economic growth and climate action, signing a Strategic Partnership with Nigeria and agreeing to develop a new UK-South Africa Growth Plan.
Defence
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced that the new Juno military satellite will be designed and built in the UK. Expected to launch in 2027, Juno will enable the British Armed Forces to capture detailed daytime images of Earth’s surface, enhancing the UK’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Juno is part of the MOD’s Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Programme, which will deliver a ‘constellation of satellites and supporting ground systems by 2031.’
John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, has stated HM Government’s plans to develop options for re-establishing a nuclear fuel cycle dedicated for defence. The plan is part of the modernisation of the Defence Nuclear Enterprise, a network of organisations responsible for maintaining the UK’s nuclear deterrent and nuclear submarine fleet.
Environment and climate
The United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP 29) began in Baku Azerbaijan on 11th November. Running until 22nd November, the talks will focus on enhancing climate finance mechanisms for rich countries to aid developing nations in their transition away from fossil fuels. The re-election of Trump – who withdrew the US from the 2015 Paris Climate Accords in his first term – will impact COP29 as observers fear that action to tackle climate change could be impeded by the lack of American leadership. Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, has pledged that the UK will lead efforts to secure an agreement at COP29 to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change.
How Britain is seen overseas
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) released a new article examining the ramifications of ceding the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) for British defence and foreign policy. The article states that the decision to cede the archipelago was seen by HM Government as a way to improve Britain’s image in the so-called ‘Global South’. However, the article argues that handing over the BIOT could undermine the status of other British Overseas Territories, such as Gibraltar, the Falkland Islands and the Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia in Cyprus.
How competitors frame Britain
Following the announcement last week that HM Government has forced a Chinese company to sell its majority stake in a Scottish microchip manufacturer, the Global Times released propaganda stating that for Britain’s reset with the PRC to work, its actions towards Chinese interests should be consistent. In its conclusion, the article calls for HM Government not to ‘repeat the foreign policy mistakes of its predecessors.’ The state media outlet seems to be oblivious to the PRC’s own transgressions.
Russia Today released propaganda claiming that UK-Ukraine relations are ‘worsening’ due to London’s failure to send more long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Kyiv. According to the Kremlin’s mouthpiece, this is one of the key reasons why Sir Keir has not yet visited Ukraine. These are peculiar claims: Britain remains one of the most vocal and strongest supporters of Kyiv.
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
2nd-8th November 2024: Though out of sight, the Royal Navy’s ballistic missile nuclear submarine continued to deter the most severe threats to British interests from the deep waters of the North Atlantic. HMS Queen Elizabeth left Portsmouth on 6th November after a rapid turnaround to undertake exercises in the English Channel and HMS Portland deployed to visit the Royal Norwegian Navy’s main base in Haakonsvern.
HMS Duncan, supported by RFA Mounts Bay, remained in the Eastern Mediterranean, providing air defence in support of British interests. On the other side of the world, HMS Protector – still in Chile – was under maintenance preparing for her deployment to Antarctica, while HMS Lancaster undertook torpedo training in the Arabian Sea.
Offshore patrol vessels HMS Forth, HMS Trent, HMS Medway, HMS Spey and HMS Tamar were engaged around the world. HMS Forth patrolled around South Georgia and HMS Medway remained in the Caribbean. Meanwhile, HMS Trent continued her stay in Valletta in Malta for maintenance, while HMS Spey left Manilla in the Philippines after a brief visit where she received Catherine West, Minister for the Indo-Pacific. And HMS Tamar left Fiji on 3rd November to begin fisheries patrols with the Royal New Zealand Navy.
The Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) also continued to support British interests: RFA Lyme Bay took part in Exercise GRAND AFRICAN NIMO and RFA Tidespring remained in northern waters.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
Trump overwhelmingly won re-election as US president, with the Republican Party also making sweeping gains in Congress. The new administration and Congress will likely shift how the US approaches its overseas commitments, particularly in Europe. Which has the potential to alter the historically close relationship Britain has enjoyed with the US.
Implications
Over the decades, Britain has thought about the ‘special relationship’ in different ways. While in British defence and diplomatic circles the relationship is seen a genuinely special, there are three or four schools of thought in British society: those who see the relationship as truly special, those who see it from the perspective of transactional realism, those who believe the UK is too weak to do anything other than tack as closely to the US as possible, and those who see the relationship as destructive (i.e., anti-Americanism).
The extent to which any one of these schools of thought dominates depends on circumstance and the character of the relationship between the British prime minister and American president. When Britain and the US are in agreement on international matters, the relationship is heralded as special. When the US sides with other countries, particularly other European countries, British hackles arise as to whether the relationship is becoming ‘less special’. And when the US does or threatens to do something the UK disagrees with, questions arise as to whether Britain has become too dependent on US goodwill.
This has been the stable pattern of the relationship since the Second World War. However, the return of a domestically unimpeded Trump is likely to cause friction with HM Government, particularly as the central tenants of British-American cooperation, namely NATO, defence of the free and open international order and unimpeded trade are under threat. Despite this, the new Labour government is likely to follow the course of its predecessors and work with the new administration and try to influence its decisions to favour British interests.
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