Welcome to the 73rd Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
Since the start of the year, tensions over Greenland have ratcheted up following renewed demands from Donald Trump, President of the United States (US), to take control of the world’s largest island from Denmark – a North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) ally. The United Kingdom (UK), Denmark and six other European countries now face 10% tariffs from Washington, following their vocal support for Greenland’s self-determination.
In response to this development, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, gave a speech on 19th January, during which he called for ‘calm discussion between allies’ and remarked that the threat of tariffs against allies are ‘completely wrong’, before highlighting that the UK and US are ‘close allies and close partners. That relationship matters profoundly’.
Threatened militarily by the regime of Vladimir Putin, President of Russia; facing increasing geoeconomic challenges from the People’s Republic of China (PRC); and now with the decades-old transatlantic defence apparatus under strain, Britain and its European allies have an urgent need to increase defence spending and harden their societies to ensure their security in a new age of geopolitical fragmentation and competition.
Welcome back to The Cable!
Britain and Ukraine marked the first anniversary of their 100 Year Partnership by announcing several new initiatives focused on enhancing Ukrainian security. This includes a £20 million package of energy infrastructure support to bolster Ukrainian energy security following the intensification of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector, and the expansion of a school twinning programme. On the anniversary, Yvette Cooper, Foreign Secretary, said:
Our support for Ukraine as it continues to resist Putin’s barbaric war is steadfast, and our ongoing support for energy security and resilience will help to keep the lights on and Ukrainian homes warm when vulnerable civilians need it most.
Sir Keir met Karol Nawrocki, President of Poland, on 13th January at 10 Downing Street to discuss bilateral relations between the UK and Poland. They agreed that both nations would deepen their relationship, including security cooperation in areas such as ‘enhanced training’ initiatives and an agreement to ‘explore the development and procurement of new capabilities to counter a range of air threats’. Turning to Ukraine, the two leaders agreed on the importance of securing a just and lasting peace, and will continue discussions around security guarantees to Kyiv as part of the Coalition of the Willing.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has announced that new accommodation and specialist training facilities at the Duke Gloucester Barracks will benefit the 13 Signal Regiment, who deliver defensive cyber operations for the British Army. The £279 million contract will also see the barracks house the Army’s Cyber, Information and Security Operations Centre, which will protect networks from cyber threats – both at home and overseas on exercises and operations.
The UK and Sweden are set to enhance bilateral defence cooperation in the Baltic and the Wider North to combat the growing security risks in both regions. In a speech on 13th January, John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, outlined the threat Russia poses to both countries, and highlighted the activities of Britain and Sweden to counter these challenges. These include efforts to support Ukraine, increased activity by the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and Sweden’s accession to NATO in March 2024.
The Foreign Secretary gave a statement on Greenland and wider Arctic security to the House of Commons on 19th January. In her speech, she highlighted His Majesty’s (HM) Government’s position, firstly that the future of Greenland is a matter for ‘Greenlanders and the Danes…alone’, and secondly that the threat of tariffs against allies is unwarranted and counterproductive. Finally, Cooper stated that Arctic security is a ‘shared concern and a shared responsibility for both sides of the Atlantic’, which can only can only be addressed and maintained through ‘cooperation between transatlantic allies’.
Last week, the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) announced a ‘record’ 8.4 Gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind capacity secured during ‘Europe’s biggest ever offshore wind auction’. This auction round, known as Contracts for Difference AR7, will secure enough clean electricity to power the equivalent of 12 million homes.
How competitors frame Britain
Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, gave a statement in which he claimed that the UK’s position on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is ‘of a destructive nature’. This was in relation to reports that France, Germany and Italy wish to ‘resume dialogue with Russia on Ukraine.’ Only Russia’s actions could be described as destructive in nature, as it is the Kremlin which has launched a war of conquest against its neighbour.
TASS reported on a statement made by Andrey Kelin, Russian Ambassador to the UK, claiming that ‘British plans to intercept Russian vessels effectively represent a return to the age of piracy. Kelin warned that the UK ‘has long ceased to be the “ruler of the seas”, and its actions will not go unpunished.’ Russia only has itself to blame for the actions being taken by Britain and its allies and partners, and the Kremlin has a continuous track record of interfering in the activities of other states.
Show me the money
On 12th January, Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sir Richard Knighton, Chief of the Defence Staff, was questioned by the Defence Select Committee. One of the key themes of the session was the issue of defence funding, arising from reports of a £28 billion funding gap over the next four years. While many of the UK’s European allies have laid out their fiscal plans for reaching 3.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) spending on defence by 2035, Britain is yet to do so. The Defence Investment Plan was supposed to be published in autumn 2025, but continues to be delayed by several factors.
Despite these troubles, it is important to note one thing: for the first time in decades, planners in the British Armed Forces can work on the assumption of more investment to come. Defence spending has already grown (albeit not by much), with the expectation that it will hit 2.6% of GDP in 2027.
Yet, these incremental increases are not fit for the strategic context the UK faces. They may have been adequate a decade ago, but Britain now needs to go further and faster to restore its hard power capabilities.
Within European NATO, the UK risks losing the position of influence it has traditionally held, although its nuclear arsenal ensures this can only fall so far. Just a few years ago, Britain was the second highest defence spender in European NATO as a percentage of GDP. Now, it is no longer even in the top ten. Where European allies are rapidly expanding and deepening capabilities, the British Armed Forces face numerous capability gaps, which look set to linger for the time being.
ACM Knighton faced a difficult challenge in explaining delays, and made many good points. In particular, he noted that it is more important for the Defence Investment Plan to be good than for it to be published as soon as possible, and that defence planners can only spend what HM Government is willing to give them.
Given all the geopolitical shocks to date, it is difficult to imagine what sort of disaster it would take for HM Treasury to change its mind on allocated budgets.
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The tension between "good" vs "fast" on defense planning gets at somethng real. ACM Knighton's right that spending matters less than capability output, but falling from 2nd to outside top 10 in European NATO while facing this threat environemnt is rough. The nuclear deterrent only buys so much influence when conventional gaps keep widening and allies are surging past 3% GDP commitments.