Welcome to the 71st Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
2026 looks set to be another eventful year in international relations with the geopolitical environment looking ever more unstable and uncertain. The United Kingdom (UK) faces numerous challenges, both from revisionist countries such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, Iran and North Korea – the so-called ‘CRINK’ nations – and from a United States (US) which continues to refocus its efforts away from the Euro-Atlantic.
What is clear is that we are witnessing a transformation of the free and open international order. Reminders about the need to possess hard power capabilities in an uncertain world will continue to be reinforced. In this new era, Britain should focus on building up its military power while also enhancing its national resilience to sub-threshold and economic warfare. Tectonic shifts are afoot and the UK must prepare itself for this new world.
Welcome back to The Cable!
Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, gave a statement on 3rd January in response to American military action in Venezuela. He stated that the UK has long supported a ‘transition of power’ in the Latin American country, but reiterated His Majesty’s (HM) Government’s commitment to upholding international law. However, a number of Labour Members of Parliament (MPs) have criticised the US administration’s actions, most prominent among them being Dame Emily Thornberry, Chair of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee.
On 3rd January, the Prime Minister spoke to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, during which the leaders welcomed American efforts to ‘push for a just and lasting peace’. Sir Keir also paid tribute to the Ukrainian people and discussed the ongoing work to ensure a multinational force could deploy to Ukraine in the days following a ceasefire.
The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) issued a statement following the PRC carrying out large-scale military drills around Taiwan on 29th and 30th December. An FCDO spokesperson said:
China’s military exercises around Taiwan…increase cross-strait tensions and the risk of escalation. A peaceful Taiwan Strait is critical to global prosperity and the UK economy. We consider the Taiwan issue one to be settled peacefully…without the threat or use of force or coercion.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced that the Royal Air Force (RAF) carried out strikes in Syria against Daesh in a joint operation with France over the weekend. The strikes, which form part of the UK’s ongoing counter-terrorism operations in the region, successfully targeted an underground facility.
Last month, TheCityUK, a financial sector advocacy organisation in London, launched a Defence and Resilience Group (DRG), which aims to ‘leverage the UK’s financial sector’ to tackle funding and investment barriers in defence. The DRG is set to focus on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) within the ‘defence and dual-use arena’, with the intention of scaling them up to enhance the UK’s ‘defence capability and national resilience’.
For additional defence news stories, follow this link to the DSEI Gateway news portal.
HM Government has signed a £52 million contract with Germany as part of a joint procurement deal for the RCH 155 Self-Propelled Gun module to bolster the UK’s artillery capabilities following the transfer of the British Army’s AS90 systems to Ukraine. The deal will see Britain receive an Early Capability Demonstrator (ECD) platform of the RCH 155, with two more going to Germany for joint testing. Additionally, the UK and Germany will share test data and facilities, accelerating procurement timelines and reducing costs. The RCH 155 will be mounted onto Boxer armoured vehicles, and is expected to enter service by 2030 at the earliest.
According to new data released by Cornwall Insight, an energy market consultancy, a ‘record number’ of renewable energy projects in Britain received planning approval in 2025. These new battery, wind and solar projects are set to provide 45 Gigawatts (GW) of capacity once operational, almost double the capacity approved in 2024. This increase was primarily driven by a rapid expansion of battery storage and healthy growth for offshore wind projects.
How competitors frame Britain
TASS released propaganda claiming that Britain and the so-called Coalition of the Willing were ‘involved’ in the supposed ‘attempted strike’ on the state residence of Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, in the northwestern Novgorod region of Russia. The article claims that ‘Western’ countries provided ‘target coordinates and flight instructions’ for the drone strikes. Not only has this story been met with scepticism in many European capitals, it is Russia which is guilty of bombing its neighbour continuously and has, on multiple occasions, attempted to assassinate its leader.
On 27th December, Russia Today published an article claiming that British defence exports saved the UK economy from ‘bankruptcy’, which explains why HM Government is ‘uninterested in a peaceful settlement’ of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The piece concludes by reiterating a Kremlin talking point that Britain and its European allies are risking ‘sparking a wider conflict on the continent’ by pursuing ‘rabid militarisation’. Russian state media continues to blame European countries for escalating tensions, but it is the Kremlin which has raised the risk of further conflict via its invasion of Ukraine and sub-threshold activities against European nations.
Venezuela, not a ‘green light’, but two warning lights
The recent US actions in Venezuela – the capture of Nicolás Maduro – has led to an outpouring of commentary on the issue. One of the most common themes from commentators in free and open countries, but especially in the UK and Europe, has been that this action serves as a ‘green light’ for assertive autocratic regimes to be even bolder in their aggression. This overlooks the fact that the good behaviour of free and open countries has extremely limited impact on the aggression of adversaries compared to more significant factors such as the balance of hard power capabilities and judgements on willpower. Rather than a ‘green light’, recent events in South America have shown two very different warning lights.
The first of these is another reminder – if one was needed – that the supposed ‘rules-based international order’ is a relic of a bygone era. This of course assumes it ever existed: there are strong arguments it was never the rules, but the dominance of the combined economic and military might of free and open countries which kept the general peace, rather than an inherent love of the rules. The action in Venezuela is yet another signal that military capability is of growing importance on the international stage. For a continent which allowed its military capabilities to atrophy, this should further reinforce the urgency of rebuilding hard power – an urgency some, such as Poland, have to their credit understood.
The second warning light is one which adversaries will take serious note of, far more so than believing this action could legitimise their own aggression. The American action is a real-world demonstration of incredible military competence. This operation required a perfect combination of intelligence, power projection, operational know-how, and the logistics to underpin all of the above. The fact that the US military was able to fight their way into the capital of Venezuela and then capture and exfiltrate the President of the country, all without the loss of life of a single American life nor the loss of any military equipment, is remarkable. Even if Venezuela is no military giant, this is still impressive.
Demonstration of military competence is far more useful for deterrence than unbacked moral grandstanding.
Of course, big questions remain to be answered. Especially those related to the endgame the US hopes for, or whether the resources allocated to this operation could have better served American interests elsewhere. Additionally, the fact this episode has been followed by renewed US rhetoric towards desires on Greenland is deeply troubling. The UK and European partners should be clear that going after a hostile, illegitimate and terrible dictator is one thing, but that an act of aggression against a longstanding and supportive ally is totally different. Such talking points would be better reinforced by bringing meaningful hard power to the table than by citing international law.
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This is an interesting article that raises many valid points. While it notes that no US lives or equipment were lost I think it's important to point out some 40 Venezualan and Cuban lives were lost during the operation. Both security forces and civilians. It would be interesting to see how an operation that kidnapped for e.g. a Gulf or European head of state would be framed, that involved the killing of 40 local security forces.