British strategy in Europe shifts West
The Cable | No. 16.2024
Welcome to the 16th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
On 23rd October, His Majesty’s (HM) Government signed a new defence agreement with Germany to bolster both nations’ security and prosperity. The Trinity House Agreement is the first bilateral security treaty between Europe’s two largest defence spenders.
The new agreement will see the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany cooperate to strengthen the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) eastern flank, enhance protection of underwater infrastructure, and work to integrate European air defence systems – alongside additional partners. In a joint communique, both nations agreed to strengthen coordination between their defence industrial bases, with Rheinmetall – one of the largest defence contractors in Europe – agreeing to open a new factory in Britain to manufacture large calibre barrels for artillery systems. Looking to future capabilities, the agreement will also see investment into new long-range missiles, uncrewed systems and Artificial Intelligence (AI), among other advanced technologies.
In his opening remarks during the press conference, John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, stated:
…in a more dangerous world, allies are our strategic strength, and we must do more together…today’s agreement also sends a signal to our adversaries. We will deter and we will defend against any aggression together.
Key diplomacy
Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, and David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, attended the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Samoa, making Sir Keir the first sitting British prime minister to visit a Pacific Island country. During the summit, HM Government announced several measures to boost intra-Commonwealth trade and investment, support democratic governance and insulate countries from climate change. However, Commonwealth leaders released a statement calling for a conversation about reparations for the transatlantic slave trade, despite HM Government’s attempts to keep the subject off the agenda.
While in Samoa, Sir Keir also met with Anthony Albanese, Prime Minister of Australia, the first meeting of the two leaders since Labour came to power in July 2024. The prime ministers agreed to deepen bilateral cooperation on mitigating climate change and expanding their respective green energy industries. They also agreed to enhance defence and trade ties between the two countries, with particular focus on the AUKUS partnership.
Following his visit to South Korea and Indonesia last week, Lammy declared that ‘a new chapter’ was beginning for relations between Britain and the two Asian nations. Talks between Lammy and representatives from both countries focused on deepening security ties while also placing green growth at the heart of future relations.
Defence
The Royal Air Force (RAF) has revealed that more than 200 Ukrainian pilots have now completed their Elementary Flying Training programme in the UK. Part of the Air Capability Coalition, in which Ukraine’s partners are helping to modernise the country’s air force. These graduated pilots will now take part in advanced flight training in France to prepare for flying F-16 fighter jets.
Britain has taken part in several NATO exercises held across Europe in the last two weeks:
Between 14th-24th October, STEADFAST NOON saw NATO’s annual nuclear deterrence exercise where aircraft take part in training flights over the North Sea and host countries of Belgium and the Netherlands.
Starting on 24th October, NEPTUNE STRIKE saw more than 20 vessels take part in ‘enhanced vigilance activity’ and tests the ‘integration of joint high-end maritime strike capabilities.’
Beginning this week, STEADFAST DUEL 2024 will see NATO’s Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) and Allied Air Command (AIRCOM), ‘practice defence operations at both the operational and higher tactical levels.’ The exercise will simulate multi-domain operations to improve coordination between AIRCOM and other command structures within the alliance.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has announced a series of major reforms to enhance British security, minimise waste and boost industry. One of the most significant changes will see the creation of a new military strategy headquarters, run by the Chief of the Defence Staff, which will oversee the individual Service Chiefs. Additionally, a new National Armaments Director will be appointed to run the UK’s defence industrial strategy and align procurement from across the different branches of the British Armed Forces.
Environment and climate
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) has commissioned a strategic spatial plan to ‘provide a blueprint for Great Britain’s energy infrastructure out to 2050.’ The strategy will analyse how best to develop new energy infrastructure in ways which will complement other sectors, such as transport and water supplies. With a focus on electricity generation and energy storage, the plan aims to speed up project delivery, reduce costs and improve investor confidence in Britain. Publication is scheduled for 2026.
The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has responded to a request from Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, for guidance on setting the level of ambition for emission cuts for the next Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The CCC has recommended that the UK should pledge to cut emissions to 81% below 1990 levels by 2035. Countries are expected to reveal their next NDC proposals for 2025 to 2035 by December 2025 at the United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP 30) in Brazil.
How Britain is seen overseas
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) released an article examining the implications of HM Government’s decision to cede sovereignty of the British Indian Ocean Territory to Mauritius. The article argues that de-colonisation is a ‘politically explosive’ issue between post-colonial nations and developing nations. It notes that decolonisation can be weaponised by revisionist powers, such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia and India.
How competitors frame Britain
Following the decision of the UK and the other Group of Seven (G7) nations to use seized Russian assets to provide loans to Ukraine, Russia Today reported that the Russian Embassy in the US denounced the plan, stating ‘theft [has been] elevated here to the rank of state policy.’ Likewise, Anton Suluanov, Finance Minister of Russia, condemned the decision and warned that the Kremlin would utilise frozen assets from North American and European countries, saying ‘We have frozen money from “unfriendly countries” and organisations.’ Russia can blame Britain and its allies all it wants, but these assets were frozen in response to the Kremlin’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, has dismissed claims by Ken McCallum, Director General of the Security Service (MI5), that Moscow is responsible for creating unrest in the UK. Putin instead blamed domestic issues for recent disturbances in Britain. Typical deflection from the Kremlin, not that anything better should be expected.
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
19th-25th October 2024: Though out of sight, the Royal Navy’s ballistic missile nuclear submarine continued to deter the most severe threats to British interests from the deep waters of the North Atlantic. HMS Prince of Wales, HMS Dauntless and HMS Iron Duke – supported by RFA Tidespring and RFA Tidesurge – continued to lead Exercise STRIKE WARRIOR in the North Sea, besides participating in NATO’s exercises STEADFAST NOON and NEPTUNE STRIKE. HMS Duncan remained in the Eastern Mediterranean, providing air defence in support of British interests. On the other side of the world, HMS Protector remained in Chile under maintenance, while HMS Lancaster undertook maritime interdiction operations in the Arabian Sea.
Offshore patrol vessels HMS Forth, HMS Trent, HMS Medway, HMS Spey and HMS Tamar were busy as ever. HMS Forth remained in the Falkland Islands and HMS Medway participated in maritime security operations in the Caribbean and North Atlantic. Meanwhile, HMS Trent paid a port call to Valletta in Malta, HMS Spey visited Kuching in Malaysia after the BERSAMA LIMA exercises, and HMS Tamar received a video call from the prime minister as the vessel acted as ‘guard ship’ for CHOGM in Samoa.
The Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) also continued to support British interests: RFA Lyme Bay visited Tema in Ghana and RFA Mounts Bay remained in the Eastern Mediterranean.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
On 23rd October, the UK and Germany signed what they described as a ‘landmark’ defence agreement: the Trinity House Agreement. In opposition, the Labour Party had long promised a security and defence pact with Germany and the Trinity House Agreement could hint at Britain returning to its old position of closer relations with Western Europe in contrast to the decades-long shift towards Eastern and Northern Europe. Though most of the details are to be welcomed, Britain ought to be clear-eyed about German limitations.
Implications
For many years, London did little to nudge Berlin out of its post-Cold War strategic slumber. No doubt, inertia played a role. Yet this was not always the case. During the Cold War, the UK enjoyed a close relationship with West Germany, with the British Army of the Rhine deployed there to deter Soviet aggression. But, back then, it was undeniable that the Germans took defence seriously. In the 1980s, the West German Army could field 38 brigades.
Since the end of the Cold War, however, the German military has been significantly downsized and its readiness levels – though they have improved in recent years – were woefully inadequate. The much vaunted Zeitenwende, the national security awakening following Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, also appears to have fizzled out.
In some ways, British thinking simply shifted. HM Government prioritised allies in Northern and Eastern Europe, which have taken meaningful steps to improve their armed forces. Poland will soon spend around 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence and is in the process of generating two entirely new divisions, while Sweden – NATO’s newest member – has more than doubled its defence budget since 2022. But little was done to apply pressure on Germany.
Given the geopolitical context, it is wise for the UK to pursue closer defence ties with Western Europe, but to serve British interests more effectively, HM Government’s strategic thinking should not slip back into the 2010s. First, the UK should push Germany to match its words with actions, starting with increasing its defence expenditure and unlocking greater support for Ukraine (particularly by providing Taurus cruise missiles). Second, Britain ought to ensure that this pursuit does not result in a reduced focus on relations with allies in Northern and Eastern Europe.
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