Storm clouds gather as the threat from the authoritarian CRINK grows
The Cable | No. 15.2024
Welcome to the 15th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
The growing partnerships between the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, Iran and North Korea – brought together under the new umbrella acronym, ‘CRINK’ – is the most significant threat that the United Kingdom (UK) and its allies have faced since the end of the Cold War. Increasingly, these revisionist powers are collaborating to undermine the open international order.
Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine serves as a clear example of the threat, with Tehran and Pyongyang providing military assistance to the Kremlin. Moreover, there is a growing body of evidence indicating that North Korea is deploying troops to Russia in support of the Russian war effort. Likewise, Beijing has provided Russia with a host of dual-use materials and has recently been accused by the United States (US) of providing lethal aid to the Kremlin. This is not a one-way street, with Russia providing technical expertise and technology transfers to enhance the Iranian and North Korean nuclear and missiles programmes, while also providing political and material support to all three nations.
However, the largest threat emanates from the PRC, which is using its significant economic and industrial strength to build up its military capabilities. Recent exercises conducted around Taiwan, coupled with the fact that the East Asian country is stockpiling a range of different commodities, shows that Beijing is entering a new stage in its competition with countries – from Japan and Australia, to the UK and US – it considers as rivals.
Key diplomacy
On 18th October, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, arrived in Berlin to meet with Joe Biden, President of the US, Olaf Scholz, Chancellor of Germany, and Emmanual Macron, President of France, to discuss future assistance to Ukraine. The leaders condemned Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and reviewed the ‘victory plan’ recently announced by Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine. Additionally, they discussed the war in the Middle East, calling for an end to the conflict and the return of the remaining hostages kidnapped by Hamas.
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, flew to the PRC on 18th October for talks with Wang Yi, his Chinese counterpart. Lammy stressed that Britain and the PRC have an obligation to work together pragmatically in areas where mutually beneficial cooperation is possible. The two also discussed several foreign policy issues, including Russia’s war against Ukraine, human rights and the conflict in the Middle East. Both men agreed to maintain channels of communication and to hold regular discussions in the future.
More importantly, Lammy visited South Korea, where he and Cho Tae-yul, Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Korea, issued a joint statement condemning North Korea’s ‘unlawful arms transfers and the reported deployment of its troops to Russia.’ Both foreign ministers reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine and stated that both countries will closely monitor the possible transfer of Russian materials and technology to Pyongyang, particularly in the missile and nuclear sectors.
On 19th October, John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, took part in the first Group of Seven (G7) defence ministers’ summit in Naples. The summit focused on Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine and how G7 nations can increase support to Kyiv and also ramp up defence production. In a statement following the summit, the ministers reaffirmed their support for Ukraine’s ‘irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) membership.’
Defence
His Majesty’s (HM) Government announced it will lend Ukraine an additional £2.26 billion for weapon purchases, with the loans to be repaid using the interest from the US$300 billion (£231 billion) of frozen Russian assets held in Europe and North America. The deal will be part of a wider G7 loan programme which is set to provide US$50 billion (£38.5 billion) to Kyiv. Britain’s loan will supplement the £3 billion that HM Government has committed to donate to Ukraine per year.
The Royal Air Force (RAF) has successfully tested a cutting edge air protection laser in a live fire exercise. Carried out in Sweden, the laser system eliminated a range of missiles which were fired simultaneously, bringing such self-protection weapons one step closer to active service. The laser is designed to be fitted to a range of RAF aircraft, such as the A400M Atlas transport or the Shadow R2 intelligence aircraft.
On 17th October, Healey announced a new defence roadmap agreement with Estonia to bolster NATO’s eastern flank. The joint declaration was signed during a meeting of the alliances’ defence ministers in Brussels, and will see thousands of troops from the British Army’s 4th Brigade be held at ‘high readiness, ready to defend NATO…’ Additionally, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced that the UK will take a leading role in enhancing the alliance’s missile capabilities through the new DIAMOND initiative – which will integrate NATO’s missile defences – while also supporting the development of new long-range missiles.
Environment and climate
The United Nations Biodiversity Summit (COP 16) began on 21st October in Cali in Colombia. Delegates from 196 countries will take part in the talks aimed at halting the collapse of global biodiversity through strengthening existing national commitments and developing new conservation financing initiatives. Despite lofty goals being agreed at COP 15 in 2022, the actions of individual countries have left much to be desired.
HM Government has appointed the UK’s first Special Representative for Nature to improve the country’s response to the biodiversity crisis. Ruth David, a former environment campaigner and policy expert, took up the role on 20th October and is now in Colombia to attend COP 16. The announcement follows the appointment of Rachel Kyte as the UK’s Special Representative for Climate in late September.
How Britain is seen overseas
The Wilson Centre published an article analysing the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) and Britain’s central position within the minilateral partnership. The article acknowledges that the grouping is not well known in the US, but describes the JEF as an ‘unsung contributor’ to European security. It goes on to highlight the growing number of exercises the minilateral carries out and the deepening of military ties and interoperability between member nations. Additionally, the JEF supplements NATO by focusing on Northern European security and countering threats which ‘fall below the threshold of NATO’s Article 5.’
How competitors frame Britain
Russia Today reported on an interview by Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, in which he said that ‘the West’s war against Russia…is increasingly turning into a real direct war.’ Comparing the effort to support Kyiv to the Nazi German invasion of the Soviet Union, Lavrov accused Britain of trying to restrain Russia. Typical gibberish coming out of Lavrov, pretending that Russia is the victim rather than the aggressor.
The Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the Iranian government has condemned new sanctions imposed by the UK and European Union (EU) for the sale of ballistic missiles to Russia. Esmaeil Baghaei, Spokesman at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, rejected the ‘allegations’ stating that Tehran respects the tenets of sovereignty and territorial integrity. An interesting take for a country which has spent the last 20 years spreading instability across much of the Middle East.
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
12th-18th October 2024: Though out of sight, the Royal Navy’s ballistic missile nuclear submarine continued to deter the most severe threats to British interests from the depths of the North Atlantic. HMS Prince of Wales, HMS Dauntless and HMS Iron Duke – supported by RFA Tidespring and RFA Tidesurge – led Exercise Strike Warrior in the North Sea. HMS Duncan remained in the Eastern Mediterranean, providing air defence in support of British interests. On the other side of the world, HMS Protector remained in Chile under maintenance, while HMS Lancaster remained in Bahrain, having received Lammy.
Offshore patrol vessels HMS Forth, HMS Trent, HMS Medway, HMS Spey and HMS Tamar continued to project British presence and goodwill across the globe. HMS Forth participated in an exercise near the Falkland Islands, HMS Medway darted in and out of San Juan as she undertook maritime security operations in the Caribbean and North Atlantic, HMS Trent visited Tangier in Morocco before patrolling the Western Mediterranean, HMS Spey was in the Strait of Malacca to partake in the annual Bersama Lima exercises, and HMS Tamar remained off the coast of Samoa having assisted with the recovery of HMNZS Manawanui.
The Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) also continued to support British interests: RFA Lyme Bay was in Cape Town and RFA Mounts Bay remained in Limassol, Cyprus.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
Awareness of the CRINK as a collection of toxic actors supporting each other’s nefarious activities has been slow to build in the UK. The MOD seems to be awake to the issue, with Lord Robertson, Head of the Strategic Defence Review, describing the CRINK as a ‘deadly quartet’ and earlier this year Adm. Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, outlined how a battle of ideas is unfolding between authoritarian and belligerent nations – such as the PRC, Russia and Iran – and responsible democratic countries.
Implications
The British strategic community has taken a while to get to this position. The wheel began to turn in 2015 when the Strategic Defence and Security Review, highlighted ‘state-based threats’ – viz. Russia – as a growing challenge to British interests. Even before the Kremlin’s deployment of nerve agents in Salisbury in 2018, HM Government began to explain in clear terms what the threat from Russia meant. Next came a growing awareness of Chinese intentions, with the Integrated Review of 2021 describing the PRC as a ‘systemic challenge’. Two years later, the Integrated Review Refresh sketched out how the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific theatres were being drawn together by the new geopolitics. Iran and North Korea have always been seen as irksome, but there is now a growing awareness of how they can support Russia and the PRC.
The problem is that the new thinking on the CRINK is not spreading across government as quickly as it should. There can be advantages to a multi-faceted approach to the CRINK, for example to drive wedges between the four capitals. But this does not seem to be the driving force behind engagement with the Chinese, for example. Instead, establishing deeper economic ties appears to be the primary motivation – odd considering the Chinese economy, hobbled by demographic challenges, reduced global demand, and a property sector on life support, is not the growth machine it once was.
Hopefully, the coming months and years – as the emphasis on geostrategic competition and ‘securonomics’ takes root – will see more unity of perception, and therefore of effort, between the various elements of HM Government in relation to the CRINK. Ultimately, strategic direction can only come from Number 10 itself.
If you found this Cable useful, please subscribe or pledge your support!
What do you think about this Cable? Why not leave a comment below?