British intelligence services have their work cut out
The Cable | No. 14.2024
Welcome to the 14th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
Ken McCallum, Director General of the Security Service (MI5), gave a speech on 8th October detailing the United Kingdom’s (UK) current national security threats, which he described as ‘the most complex and interconnected threat environment we have ever seen.’ Starting with domestic terrorism, McCallum highlighted the growing diversity of extremist ideologies and the role of online radicalisation in creating today’s terrorists.
Turning to threats from aggressor states, McCallum stated that Britain has been facing an increasing quantity of attacks by state actors for several years, with the number of investigations British security services are running having ‘shot up by 48%’ in the last year. With Russia and Iran relying on cyber activities and increasingly using proxies to carry out ‘their dirty work’, including private intelligence operations and criminal activities. Russian actors, in particular, are attempting to undermine continuing support for Ukraine by generating ‘mayhem on British and European streets.’
However, McCallum believes that the threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is different, as Beijing is both an economic partner and a competitor, requiring the risks to be managed effectively and strategically. As he puts it:
It is up to ministers to make the big strategic judgments on our relationship with China: where it is in the UK’s interests to cooperate, and how we do so safely.
Responding to the speech, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, acknowledged the ‘sober findings’ raised by McCallum but reassured the British public that the security services are working tirelessly to keep them safe.
Key diplomacy
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, attended a meeting of the European Union (EU) Foreign Affairs Council on 14th October, becoming the first British foreign secretary to be invited in over two years. The discussions focused on several core challenges to European security, including Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine and its interference in European affairs. It also focused on the Middle Eastern conflict and the threat emanating from Iran. The UK’s participation in the meeting is part of His Majesty’s (HM) Government’s plan to engage more closely with the EU and strengthen UK-EU security cooperation.
On 10th October, Sir Keir hosted both Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, and Mark Rutte, the new Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). With Zelenskyy, Sir Keir reaffirmed Britain’s continuing support for Ukraine, and discussed the country’s long-term future. With Rutte, the two leaders stated the importance of NATO to European security and highlighted the UK’s important contribution to the alliance’s capabilities.
Defence
The Royal Air Force announced that one of its RC-135W Rivet Joint electronic surveillance aircraft conducted a full transit of the eastern border of NATO from southern Greece to northern Finland. Signal intelligence missions are common to counter Russian activity, but the UK has become the first nation to carry out such an extensive operation.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced that the construction of HMS Formidable has begun with a steel cutting ceremony at the Rosyth shipyards in Scotland. HMS Formidable is the third (out of five) of the Royal Navy’s next generation Type 31 class frigates to start construction, with HMS Venturer – the first of its class – set to enter service in late 2026.
The Royal Navy has tested a new anti-ship missile from one of its Wildcat maritime attack helicopters. The Sea Venom is designed to destroy larger, more heavily armoured ships and, with the successful test, the Royal Navy has added a significant new capability to its arsenal.
Environment and climate
On 10th October, HM Government appointed eight leading industry and academic experts to a new Advisory Commission to help accelerate the UK’s mission to decarbonise the electricity grid by 2030. The new Advisory Commission will support Chris Stark, the Mission Control for Clean Power, in the development of the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan, which the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) plans to publish by the end of the year.
HM Government has announced a new scheme to attract investment in renewable energy storage. The scheme is set to remove barriers to building long duration energy storage (LDES) infrastructure and boost investor confidence in such projects. LDES are a critical part in developing a green electricity grid, with the National Electricity System Operator estimating that to achieve Net Zero, the UK will require between 11.5 and 15.3 gigawatts (GW) of LDES capacity by 2050. Britain currently has only 2.8 GW of LDES installed.
In a related move, HM Government has welcomed the confirmation of more than £24 billion in clean energy investment ahead of the UK’s first International Investment Summit, held on 14th October. This investment will focus on wind and solar power, but will also include energy storage and materials that are essential for Britain’s nuclear power sector.
How Britain is seen overseas
War on the Rocks released an article analysing last week’s announcement that HM Government will cede sovereignty of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) to Mauritius. The piece supports the agreement, stating that it will legitimise British-American use of its critically important military base on Diego Garcia while also ending the decades-long sovereignty dispute that has ‘hampered’ both countries’ relations with many island nations and multilateral institutions.
However, the article highlights several uncertainties that arise from the agreement. In particular, it notes that Mauritius is a signatory of the African Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty, which prohibits the research, development, manufacture, stockpiling, or possession of nuclear explosive devices. It claims some sort of exception will have to be negotiated between the Mauritian Government and the governments of Britain and the US to work around this issue.
How competitors frame Britain
Following McCallum’s warnings that Beijing poses a significant risk to the UK, The Global Times released propaganda calling on Britain to ‘show sincerity and pragmatism’ in developing ties with the PRC. The piece states that because economic and social problems afflict the UK, the new government will take a more cautious and pragmatic approach towards Beijing, rather than simply following the lead of the US or the EU. It concludes by urging Britain to ‘demonstrate sincerity and abandon its twisted mindset if it wishes to recalibrate relations with Beijing.’ Based on this rationale, should not the PRC be more pragmatic in its engagement with Britain? After all, the Chinese economy is riddled with mounting structural problems.
Russia Today attacked the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) for being a ‘state-funded operation’ and gloatingly quotes Tim Davie, Director General of the BBC, who recently bemoaned cuts to the BBC World Service resulting in a loss of British influence in Africa and Asia, allowing Russian and Chinese media to replace it. The piece concludes by saying that while many countries in Europe and several American social media companies have banned Russia Today, it ‘isn’t going anywhere’ and ‘will continue to find new ways to reach audiences – in every corner of the world.’ An unsurprising take for a Kremlin mouthpiece which spreads lies and misinformation across the world.
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
5th-11th October 2024: Though unseen, the Royal Navy’s ballistic missile nuclear submarine continued to deter the most severe threats to British interests from the depths of the North Atlantic. HMS Prince of Wales, HMS Dauntless and HMS Iron Duke – supported by RFA Tidespring – geared up for Exercise Strike Warrior in the North Sea. HMS Duncan remained present in the Eastern Mediterranean, providing air defence in support of British interests. On the other side of the world, HMS Protector is preparing to venture into Antarctic waters, while HMS Lancaster visited Bahrain, where she received Lammy for a tour.
Offshore patrol vessels HMS Forth, HMS Trent, HMS Medway, HMS Spey and HMS Tamar continued to project British presence and goodwill across the globe. HMS Forth remained on patrol around the Falkland Islands, HMS Medway visited San Juan in Puerto Rico, HMS Trent returned to Gibraltar, HMS Spey remained in Malaysia to partake in the annual Bersama Lima exercises, and HMS Tamar steamed to Samoa.
The Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) also continued to support British interests: RFA Argus returned home to Weymouth, RFA Lyme Bay called into Cape Town, RFA Mounts Bay was spotted in Limassol, and RFA Tidesurge remained in the North Atlantic.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
Reports have emerged which suggest that the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has intervened to postpone plans for a visit to the UK by Tsai Ing-Wen, former President of Taiwan. This is ahead of a potential visit by Lammy, to the PRC. Beijing is famously prickly about the issue of Taiwan and the FCDO presumes that any visit by Tsai Ing-Wen shortly before Lammy heads to the PRC could cause serious diplomatic headaches.
At the same time, Lord Robertson, leader for HM Government’s Strategic Defence Review (SDR), has described the PRC as one of the ‘deadly quartet’ (alongside Russia, Iran, and North Korea) acting against the ‘West.’ There appears to be little consistency.
Implications
This shows there is a clear disconnect between the national security component of HM Government and its diplomatic and economic components when it comes to PRC policy. This is nothing new and has been a feature at least since David Cameron’s ill conceived ‘Golden Era’ of UK-PRC relations.
In his Foreign Affairs essay ‘The case for progressive realism’, Lammy outlined how the UK needed a ‘more consistent’ China strategy – one which challenges, competes, and cooperates with the PRC as appropriate. Given recent developments, and the fact Lammy has placed heavy emphasis on climate change as the number one priority for the FCDO, it appears the FCDO is leaning much more towards the cooperate element (with HM Treasury following suit).
Given the PRC is an aggressive authoritarian state with an increasingly fragile economy, it is difficult to see how emphasising cooperation with the PRC is either progressive or realist.
With the FCDO, MOD, and HM Treasury all working towards their own PRC agendas, can they develop a consistent strategy? Is it even possible to create consistency between the challenge, compete, and cooperate strands (not dissimilar from the previous government’s ‘protect, align, and engage’ strategy which also created a very muddled approach)? Greater strategic direction is essential to ensure an aligned, whole of government approach that is working towards a common PRC policy.
Read more: China: The top 10 priorities for early Labour government action – Charles Parton 03/09/2024
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