From tilt to rebound in the Indo-Pacific?
The Cable | No. 13.2024
Welcome to the 13th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
On 3rd October 2024, His Majesty’s (HM) Government announced an agreement to cede sovereignty of the British Indian Overseas Territory (BIOT) – also known as the Chagos Archipelago – to Mauritius. Bought from Mauritius on Mauritius’ independence in 1965, the United Kingdom (UK) has faced increasing international pressure to cede the BIOT since the Mauritian government renewed its claim to the islands in 1982. The deal is the result of 13 rounds of negotiations with the Mauritian government over the last two years.
Under the agreement, the Diego Garcia military base will remain under joint British-American control subject to a 99-year lease (with the option to renew). The base hosts one of the four dedicated ground antennas which supports the operation of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and a telescope array which forms part of the US Air Force’s Ground-Based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance System (GEODSS), tracking objects in orbit. The archipelago’s location in the central Indian Ocean also provides significant geostrategic advantage to the UK (and US), particularly as the Indo-Pacific becomes an increasingly central theatre of geopolitical competition.
The agreement has proven controversial as there are fears that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will benefit from its close relations with the Mauritian government and the fact that Chagossians – who the British government displaced and eventually resettled in the 1960s-1970s – were not involved in the negotiation process. Additionally, many observers critique the claim that by ceding control of the BIOT, the UK will gain a diplomatic boost with unaligned ‘middle ground’ countries, particularly in Africa.
Key diplomacy
On 1st October, Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, was in Brussels to meet top European Union (EU) officials, including Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, as part of HM Government’s planned ‘reset’ of relations with the EU. In a joint statement released by Sir Keir and von der Leyen, the two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to enhance strategic cooperation between the UK and the EU.
On 3rd October, David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, attended talks in Dublin with Micheál Martin, his Irish counterpart, with the pair committing to closer cooperation between Britain and the Republic of Ireland and to usher in a ‘new chapter’ of UK-Irish relations. This was the first visit by a British foreign secretary since 2017.
Defence
John Healey, Defence Secretary, visited Cyprus on 2nd October to highlight the UK’s commitment to ‘de-escalation’ in the Middle East and to support British facilities which are being prepared in contingency of a further worsening of the conflict. In the last two weeks, around 700 additional Armed Forces personnel, as well as Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) and Home Office officials, have been transferred to Cyprus.
The British Armed Forces are taking part in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) Operation CHELONIA training exercise. Over 1,000 British troops are operating alongside NATO allies in the Balkans, to highlight the alliance’s commitment to Balkan security. One of the major training missions will see British troops deployed to Kosovo via an amphibious landing in Albania.
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has announced the acquisition of a semiconductor plant in County Durham to protect the British Armed Forces’ supply chains. The factory in Newton Aycliffe is the only facility in the UK which produces gallium arsenide semiconductors, which are used in a wide range of military platforms, but particularly in fighter jets.
Environment and climate
In another milestone on the road to Net Zero, the UK shut down its final coal power plant on 30th September, becoming the first Group of Seven (G7) nation to phase out coal for electricity generation. The closure of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar plant brings an end to nearly 150 years of coal power in the UK, with coal generating almost all British electricity before the 1960s, before dropping to 76% in 1980 and 32% in 2000.
The week that saw the phaseout of coal power also saw the final blast furnace at the Port Talbot Steelworks close, bringing an end to over a century of steel production at the site. The closure leaves only the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe with the capability of producing virgin steel in the UK, though this facility is expected to close by the end of the year.
HM Government has made contingency plans to fund the Sizewell C nuclear power plant in case of major delays with private investors. The plant’s construction has already faced delays and there are now fears that there will be no final agreement with potential private investors within the next two years. However, HM Government has told partners that a formal announcement on Sizewell C funding would not occur until 2025.
How Britain is seen overseas
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies released a commentary analysing the impact of the US Presidential Election on British-American relations. The article stresses that while, historically, the so-called ‘special relationship’ has been critical for both capitals irrespective of their political flavour, a second Trump administration could prove difficult for Sir Keir to navigate – due to both domestic and external pressures.
The article concludes by assessing four key policy priorities for future relations: reconnecting with Europe, strengthening UK defence, a UK-US trade agreement, and climate action and green energy.
How competitors frame Britain
The Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the Iranian government has condemned British and American strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen during the ongoing attacks on shipping carried out by the group in the Red Sea. Esmaeil Baghaei Hamaneh, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, stated that the US and Britain ‘are in clear violation’ of international law and that both countries should be held to account for their ‘illegitimate and illegal actions.’ The propaganda piece goes on to say that London and Washington continue to maintain their ‘illegal presence’ in West Asia on behalf of monarchical Arab regimes. An interesting take for a country that has spent the last 20 years pursuing an aggressive foreign policy across the whole Middle East.
Dimitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, issued another threat towards the UK which was picked up by Russia Today. Responding to Elena Vyalbe, banned Olympic skier, who called for London to be bombed so that ‘we [Russian Olympians] would be allowed everywhere’, Medvedev stated: ‘but we need to solve the problem radically and just sink the damned island of Anglo-Saxon dogs.’ Providing Ukraine with British weapons has certainly rattled the Russians; the ‘Anglo-Saxon dog’ can bite hard if provoked.
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
28th September-4th October: Though invisible, the Royal Navy’s ballistic missile nuclear submarine continued to deter the most severe threats to British interests from the depths of the North Atlantic. HMS Prince of Wales steamed out of Portsmouth on 28th September to prepare for Exercise Strike Warrior in the North Sea. HMS Duncan left Limassol in Cyprus on 4th October but remained present in the Eastern Mediterranean providing air defence in support of British interests. On the other side of the world, HMS Protector is training while en-route to the Antarctic, while HMS Lancaster prepared to leave the British defence ‘hub’ in Duqm to patrol in the Gulf and Arabian Sea.
Offshore patrol vessels HMS Forth, HMS Trent, HMS Medway, HMS Spey and HMS Tamar continued to project British presence and goodwill across the globe. HMS Forth remained on station in the Falkland Islands, HMS Medway and HMS Trent crossed one another in the North Atlantic as the former cruised to the Caribbean to relieve the latter, HMS Spey arrived in Kuantan in Malaysia to partake in the annual Bersama Lima exercises, and HMS Tamar visited Suma in Fiji.
The Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) also continued to support British interests: RFA Argus was on operations in the North Atlantic, RFA Lyme Bay was in the Indian Ocean, RFA Mounts Bay joined HMS Duncan in the Eastern Mediterranean, and RFA Tidesurge remained in the North Atlantic.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
On relinquishing the lease to Hong Kong in 1997, Tony Blair, former prime minister, stated: ‘Britain is too small. We mustn’t lose any more territory.’ 27 years later, and HM Government is about to surrender one of the most geostrategically-important locations in the Indian Ocean, if not the world.
Two governments – Conservative and Labour – have overseen this development. Although Lord Cameron and Grant Shapps, as foreign and defence secretaries, respectively, put a stop to it, Liz Truss and James Cleverly allowed negotiations to get underway and accelerate. In a way, Lammy merely issued the coup de grâce. What drives their decision-making?
Implications
In the media, the decision to give Mauritius BIOT is often presented as weakness or ‘wokeness’ – and those supportive of ‘decolonisation’ (though over 2,000 kilometres away, BIOT was never part of Mauritius) have certainly cheered. But, counterintuitively, there is another answer. In the Cable a fortnight ago, we explained how Britain’s strategic mentality as a great power drives the way it engages with the wider world. Once other options are exhausted, the UK tends to marshal its full strength, mobilising a coalition of like-minded states, to stop aggressors in their tracks.
But it takes some time for HM Government to do what is often needed. Safe behind its maritime moat, the UK feels a degree of safety many other countries do not. This means Britain sometimes is slow to act. The fact that HM Government feels it can surrender territory is emblematic of its maritime disposition and its great power status.
In short, the UK still feels it can give a lot away to appease irritants or to buy off threats. The problem here is that Britain ought to think more strategically. In the case of BIOT, is it really advantageous to buy off Mauritius’ lawfare for goodwill in the Commonwealth when the PRC looms over the horizon?
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