British diplomacy takes centre stage at the United Nations General Assembly
The Cable | No. 12.2024
Welcome to the 12th Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
World leaders gathered at the United Nations (UN) in New York for the annual General Assembly meeting, where Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, and David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, laid out His Majesty’s (HM) Government’s mission to reconnect with the global community and take a leading role in defending the free and open international order. In his speech, Sir Keir warned the attendees that conflict and the breakdown of multilateralism is eroding the progress made towards ending poverty, ill-health and insecurity. To counter this, he called for a reassertion of ‘fundamental principles…to recommit to the UN, to internationalism, to the rule of law. To work together for peace, progress and equality.’ He also called for fairer representation at the UN and stated his support for permanent African, Brazilian, Japanese and German representation on the UN Security Council.
Lammy’s speech echoed the sentiments of the prime minister’s, calling for responsible global leadership, a reformed multilateral system, and urgent action to tackle the climate and nature crisis. A high point was Lammy calling out the actions of Russia:
Your invasion [of Ukraine] is in your own interests…To expand your mafia state into a mafia empire. An empire built on corruption…An empire built on lies. Spreading disinformation at home and abroad to sow disorder.
He further warned: ‘If we let an imperialist redraw borders by force, those will not be the last borders to be redrawn. If we let an imperialist deny a nation its path, Ukraine will not be the last state to be subjected.’
Key diplomacy
On 26th September, Sir Keir met with António Guterres, Secretary General of the UN, where they discussed the growing number of global crises. Guterres thanked the UK for playing a key role within the UN while Sir Keir reaffirmed Britain’s commitment to the principles of the UN Charter and international law. The two men agreed to cooperate on the UN’s new Pact for the Future, which aims to ‘transform global governance.’
On 28th September, Ed Miliband, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero, met with Mukhtar Babayev, President-Designate of COP29, to discuss strategies to accelerate the energy transition, deepen international cooperation and expand access to green technologies, all of which are key drivers for reaching global climate targets. Both Miliband and Babayav emphasised the importance of keeping global warming below the limits set by the Paris Agreement.
Defence
On 26th September, the UK hosted a meeting of the AUKUS nations’ defence ministers, the first such meeting to be held outside of the US. Following the talks, the defence ministers issued a joint statement in which they reaffirmed their commitment to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific, and their determination to collaborate and build resilience across their shared industrial bases and supply chains, while also enhancing the development of advanced technologies as part of Pillar II of the AUKUS agreement.
On 27th September, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) released a report called ‘Global Strategic Trends: Out to 2055’, providing thematic analysis of the geostrategic outlook over the next 30 years. The new edition:
Identifies six key drivers of global change: global power competition, demographic pressures, climate change and pressure on the environment, technological advances and connectivity, economic transformation and energy transition and inequality and pressure on governance;
Merges the six drivers with 22 underlying trends to provide a framework to explore five ‘fictitious but plausible’ potential pathway scenarios that could result in ‘the emergence of a different world order’;
Provides analysis for the outlook of geographic regions and thematic areas, such as cyber, space, economy and society.
The MOD announced that it will complete the transfer of 16 AS-90 artillery pieces to Ukraine within the next few weeks, surpassing its pledge to provide a dozen guns within 100 days of the new government taking power. HM Government has also announced the creation of a new joint MOD and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) Ukraine unit, to create a whole of government approach towards Ukraine and integrate the expertise found in both ministries.
How Britain is seen overseas
The Hudson Institute in Washington released a commentary piece examining Britain’s nuclear modernisation programme and its central position in influencing America’s view of the UK as a premier security partner. The article highlights that the United States (US) Government places a high premium on British deterrence capabilities as a cornerstone of European and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) nuclear policy, providing ‘additional strategic challenges for potential adversaries’ and that the planned modernisation of the UK’s deterrence is viewed positively by Washington, particularly in the current geopolitical climate.
With this in mind, the article suggests that the new British government not only renews its continual at-sea deterrent but also adds a second delivery system, which ‘could enhance flexibility and resilience.’ As Labour prepares to conduct a new Strategic Defence Review, the article calls for decision makers to deliberate its nuclear policy carefully and provide adequate resources to the programme.
How competitors frame Britain
Russia Today reported that the Russian Embassy in South Africa released a statement in which it claims that Britain and the West are replacing history with propaganda. The embassy in Pretoria claims that Lammy’s accusations of imperialism against Russia are ‘just the most recent instance of a Western campaign to revise history and replace it with propaganda narratives.’ Wilful deflection from a country engaged in a war of imperial conquest!
The Global Times released propaganda lashing out at the British media for its critical reporting on Xinjiang, stating that it continues to spread ‘outrageous stories of human rights abuses and even genocide there.’ Continuing the attack, the article blames newspapers such as the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail of pushing ‘Western narratives’ but dismisses ‘Beijing’s explanation for the extraordinary security measures in the region’, namely terrorism. The piece concludes by claiming that there is no evidence of the Uygur genocide, forced labour or arbitrary detentions. More of the same from a country which crushes any form of domestic dissent and blatantly ignores international law.
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
21st-27th September: Though invisible, the Royal Navy’s ballistic missile nuclear submarine continued to deter the most severe threats to British interests from the depths of the North Atlantic. HMS Somerset returned from patrol in the North Atlantic, while HMS Duncan remained present in the Eastern Mediterranean providing air defence in support of British interests. On the other side of the world, HMS Protector visited Talcahuano in Chile, while HMS Lancaster remained on patrol in the Arabian Sea.
Offshore patrol vessels HMS Forth, HMS Trent, HMS Spey and HMS Tamar continued to maintain a British presence across the globe. HMS Forth remained on station in the Falkland Islands, HMS Medway repatriated turtles in the Azores during the vessel’s crossing of the North Atlantic, HMS Trent left Bermuda, HMS Spey paid a visit to Sihanoukville in Cambodia, and HMS Tamar remained in New Zealand.
The Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) also continued to support British interests: RFA Argus was on operations in the South Atlantic, RFA Lyme Bay visited Diego Garcia, RFA Mounts Bay steamed from Rhodes in Greece to Cyprus, and RFA Tidesurge was in the North Atlantic.
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
Last week John Healey, Defence Secretary, was joined in London by Richard Marles and Lloyd Austin, his Australian and American counterparts. The defence secretaries gathered to discuss and reaffirm their commitment to the AUKUS partnership. They also touted the progress already made in providing Australia with nuclear powered (but conventionally armed) attack submarines (SSNs) and outlined the future steps of the trilateral in a wide range of areas.
Some key announcements relating to the UK include: an agreement to use British-made Stingray torpedoes in the submarine-hunting P-8A Maritime Patrol Aircraft; a confirmation by the MOD that more Australian personnel will receive nuclear reactor expertise as part of the Royal Navy’s training programme in 2025; and, most importantly, a declaration that a new bilateral security treaty will be negotiated between London and Canberra. This latter initiative aims to: ‘establish the strategic and operational framework for bilateral cooperation under AUKUS with a focus on the core elements of the delivery of SSN-AUKUS [submarines].’
Implications
Looking at the bigger picture, this meeting underscores the growing importance of Britain’s partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. Indeed, a recent Council on Geostrategy publication predicts an eastward shift in the UK’s most important allies and partners and argues that by 2030, Australia will surpass France in importance, making it second only to the US.
The announcement of a new bilateral security treaty also bolsters the new government’s interest in the region, adding weight to Labour’s commitment to support a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’, which was recently highlighted by a joint statement released by the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) nations at last weeks UN General Assembly meeting.
Whether Labour will deepen engagement in the Indo-Pacific more broadly – AUKUS having been initiated under the previous Conservative government – remains to be seen. Similar uncertainties hang over the potential need to reconcile AUKUS developments with ambitions to deepen defence cooperation between the UK and its European allies.
For now, however, the message is clear. Under Labour, AUKUS will proceed as planned. Not that this should have ever been in doubt. For all his criticisms of the ‘tilt’, Healey has long been an enthusiast for the trilateral. The next question is: Can the same be said if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year?
Read more: What allies want: Appraising Britain’s defence relationships – William Freer and Dr Alexander Lanoszka, 30/09/2024
If you found this Cable useful, please subscribe or pledge your support!
What do you think about this Cable? Why not leave a comment below?