Labour embraces the dawn of the Atlantic-Pacific

The Cable | No. 06.2024

Welcome to the sixth Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.

His Majesty’s (HM) Government has followed up its recent diplomatic push in the Indo-Pacific by reaffirming Britain’s interest in and commitments to the region. On 8th August, the Government announced that Alisa Terry will be appointed as Private Secretary for Foreign Affairs to Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister. Terry spent the last year as British High Commissioner to Malaysia, and by bringing a diplomat with experience in Asia into his foreign policy circle, Sir Keir is showing that the new government is taking the Indo-Pacific seriously.

Another area in receipt of British attention was Northern Europe. After a meeting between John Healey, Secretary of Defence, and Bjørn Arild Gram – his Norwegian counterpart – on 6th August, the Ministry of Defence (MOD) announced that Norway will join the 2025 Indo-Pacific deployment of the Royal Navy’s Carrier Strike Group, to be led by HMS Prince of Wales. The Royal Air Force also began taking part in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) air policing mission over Iceland. Four F35B Lightning II Joint Combat Aircraft became the first British stealth warplanes to operate over the country or contribute to an air policing operation. Right now, Iceland is under the protection of parts of the Royal Air Force’s (RAF) Lightning II fleet, while the Royal Norwegian Navy is preparing for a lengthy tour of the Indo-Pacific – a powerful signal of Britain’s will and ability to convene and align Northern European allies. 

Moving to Ukraine, Maria Eagle, Minister for Defence Procurement and Industry, met with her Ukrainian counterparts and members of the defence industrial sector in Kyiv to begin negotiations for contracts under the new Defence Export Support Treaty, signed during the recent visit of Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, to Britain. The treaty provides Ukraine with £3.5 billion in export finance to buy military equipment from the UK’s defence industry.

In other news, the MOD announced plans to redevelop Cawdor Barracks in Wales into an advanced radar facility – reversing the planned closure of the base. Known as the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability (DARC), the proposed Cawdor Barracks installation will be part of a network of ground-based radars facilities in Britain, Australia, the United States (US). The DARC programme will increase the AUKUS nations’ ability to detect, track and identify objects in geostationary orbit (i.e., 36,000 kilometres above Earth), in particular satellites. 

When discussing the plans, Healey stated:

Space plays a crucial role in our daily lives…It is also used by UK Defence to conduct vital tasks such as supporting military operations, navigating forces and gathering intelligence…This new radar programme will not only enhance our awareness of deep space, but also help protect our space assets alongside our closest partners.

The DARC programme is another example of how Britain, Australia and the US can mutually develop advanced capabilities and improve all three countries' security.

How Britain is seen overseas

As we enter the Labour government’s second month in power, think tanks, universities and governmental research services across the world continue to analyse this new era in British politics.

The ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore released an article calling for Labour to maintain the previous Conservative government’s Indo-Pacific ‘tilt’ and remain engaged ‘east of Suez’. The article explains that the countries of Southeast Asia want a strong British presence in the region and that it is in London’s interests to have an active foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific. The article also suggests a number of ways in which Britain can enhance its regional presence, including participation in naval exercises with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, forming reciprocal access agreements with Asian nations, and through deeper involvement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). 

How competitors frame Britain

• Sputnik International released propaganda looking into the state of the British Armed Forces. The piece states that British forces are unprepared to fight a conflict due to transferring equipment and ammunition to Ukraine. It also highlights poor housing for troops and their families, all playing a part in ‘the demoralised state of the UK’s military.’ Perhaps Sputnik should focus on the terrible conditions and poor morale that Russian troops face in Ukraine (and now also in Kursk).

• Seemingly gleeful at the violent disorder on British streets last week, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement urging HM Government to ‘refrain from any unjustified or unproportionate use of violence against protestors’. Amusingly, it noted that ‘Russia is known for opposing and never allowing itself to meddle into the domestic affairs of other countries.’ Ukraine would probably beg to differ.

• The Global Times reported that David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, is expected to visit Beijing, to ‘steer the bruised ties back on track.’ That depends on whether the PRC is prepared to behave like a trustworthy country, and not a revisionist regime.

Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments

While the Royal Navy’s contribution to Britain’s nuclear deterrent is largely invisible to all but a small number of people, it became visible again last week as HMS Vanguard was seen leaving the naval base at Rosyth. HMS Prince of Wales returned to Portsmouth to join HMS Queen Elizabeth having visited the Clyde to receive ammunition. HMS Richmond monitored Chinese warships in the English Channel as they returned from Russia, while HMS Protector was spotted passing through the Panama Canal on 11th August. HMS Duncan remains in the eastern Mediterranean with a United States Navy task group.

In other parts of the world, HMS Lancaster returned to the Arabian Sea to patrol after a visit to Kenya. Offshore patrol vessels HMS Forth, HMS Trent, HMS Medway, HMS Spey and HMS Tamar were busy as ever. HMS Forth remains in the Falkland Islands protecting British interests, HMS Trent experimented with launching remote aircraft in the Caribbean, HMS Medway returned to the English Channel for training before its deployment later in the year to the Caribbean, HMS Spey remains in Southeast Asia, and HMS Tamar visited Vanuatu for the country’s 44th Independence Day celebrations.

How Britain thinks about foreign affairs

Last week’s announcement that the Norwegian Navy will join the Royal Navy’s Carrier Strike Group deployment to the Indo-Pacific next year indicates HM Government’s evolving thinking on connectivities between the Euro-Atlantic, Britain’s home region, and the Indo-Pacific, the area most important to international relations and the global economy. The British and Norwegian defence secretaries described the two regions as ‘indivisible’, echoing previous statements issued by British and Indo-Pacific leaders, such as the prime ministers of Japan and South Korea. Britain is now drawing other European countries – in this case, one of its closest allies – into its geopolitical discourse.

Implications

Norway’s participation in the Royal Navy’s Carrier Strike Group’s deployment in 2025 is important because it will build on the close relations between the UK and Norway. But the most interesting aspect of the announcement is that it hints at Labour’s growing acceptance of the interconnectedness between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific regions, and that resourcing both theatres is not mutually exclusive. Moreover, the new government is beginning to understand that the Indo-Pacific is not a distant theatre, but will be integral to Euro-Atlantic security. The growing reach of the PRC, undergoing a dramatic naval build-up, was shown again last week with the passage of two Chinese warships through British waters – returning from Russia.

Yet, the British-Norwegian announcement does also serve as a reminder that absent greater investment, the British Armed Forces will struggle to span both regions – especially if geopolitics in both continue to worsen. To date only 48 of the 138 planned F-35B Lightning II warplanes have been ordered; without more airframes, the Royal Navy will be stretched in the coming years. In a similar vein, while Norway’s participation in the 2025 Carrier Strike Group deployment is testament to Britain’s convening power, it also reveals that the Royal Navy and Royal Fleet Auxiliary are in dire need of additional resources to provide solutions to the current personnel and equipment struggles. The issue of increasing defence spending will eventually need to be confronted.

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