Labour ‘tilts’ towards the Indo-Pacific
Labour ‘tilts’ towards the Indo-Pacific
The Cable | No. 05.2024
Welcome to the fifth Cable, our weekly roundup of British foreign and defence policy.
We have come to the end of the new government’s first month in power, a month defined by international events and summits. While the Euro-Atlantic has been central, recent diplomatic efforts by Labour make it clear that the Indo-Pacific will continue to be of importance to the United Kingdom (UK).
David Lammy, Foreign Secretary, travelled to India on 24th July for high-level talks to enhance economic and security links with the rising power, in particular the potential free trade agreement between London and New Delhi. In his words:
Our free trade agreement negotiations are the floor not the ceiling of our ambitions to unlock our shared potential and deliver growth…We have shared interests on the green transition, new technologies, economic security and global security.
The Foreign Secretary also met with Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, to launch a technology security initiative, focusing on greater collaboration in critical and emerging technologies across priority sectors, including telecoms, advanced materials and artificial intelligence.
In the same week, Lammy travelled to Laos for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers’ meeting – to strengthen economic and political ties with the group of growing economies. At the meeting, Lammy positioned Britain as a ‘key partner to the Indo-Pacific region’, focusing on trade, climate change, health and regional security. The deepening of relations between the UK and Southeast Asia follows Britain becoming a Dialogue Partner of ASEAN in 2021.
On 31st July, Lammy and John Healey, Defence Secretary, travelled to Qatar to push for an end of the Gaza war and call for de-escalation as the risk of regional conflagration rises.
In the world of British defence, there was welcome news that Armed Forces personnel will receive a 6% pay rise – the largest increase in over 20 years. Following the announcement, Healey stated ‘We will renew our nation’s contract with those who serve…[This is] a clear demonstration of our government’s commitment to improving service life.’
The British Armed Forces have faced a recruitment and retention crisis for quite some time with inadequate remuneration playing a significant role. This pay rise, alongside other proposed measures to improve service life – such as establishing an independent Armed Forces Commissioner – could be key to boosting morale and sustaining a strong military to protect British interests in the worsening geopolitical environment.
In other news, Ed Miliband, Secretary for Energy and Net Zero, chaired the first energy Mission Board on 31st July to accelerate Britain’s path towards clean power and energy independence. On the same day, His Majesty’s (HM) Government announced that it will add £500 million to this year’s renewable energy auction budget, bringing the total to over £1.5 billion – a record sum. These developments follow the launch of state-owned Great British Energy – which will receive over £8 billion in government funding – and the lifting of the ban on onshore wind in England.
In a statement released after the energy Mission Board, Miliband said ‘In an unstable world, the best way to boost our energy security and protect bill payers is to speed up the transition away from fossil fuels and towards homegrown energy – making Britain a clean energy superpower.’ There is opportunity here to ensure that the UK is involved at all stages of development, from designing new energy systems to manufacturing, installing and maintaining them.
How Britain is seen overseas
As the new Labour government’s policy positions become clearer after their first month in office, think tanks, universities and governmental research services across the world continue to analyse this new era in British politics.
The Lowy Institute in Australia published a report analysing how AUKUS and a stronger British and American military presence in the Indo-Pacific would improve Canberra’s strategic position in the Indo-Pacific. The report examines the potential pitfalls of the AUKUS partnership from the perspective of the three nations. For the UK, the key issue is diminished naval infrastructure, lack of capital and a limited skilled workforce pool to produce AUKUS submarines as well as the Royal Navy’s Dreadnought class submarines. However, the report highlights that Australia will inject AU$4.6 billion to support the construction of its submarines and that over the last decade, the British submarine industry has acted forcefully to modernise and expand. Finally, the report states that the jointly crewed US and British submarines which will operate from Australia later this decade will provide a powerful deterrent in the Indo-Pacific that will benefit the open international order.
How competitors frame Britain
Sputnik International released propaganda, stating that crime and social disorder are growing in Britain, following disorder in several British cities. Russia’s mouthpiece claims the UK police are in disarray and mass migration is the driver of disorder. This is surprising to hear from a country which suffers from high levels of crime – including systemic corruption – where violent criminals have been enlisted by the Kremlin to fight in Ukraine.
The Global Times published an article claiming that Britain and its allies and partners are increasing military spending to arm Ukraine. It asserts that this is ‘marching the world ever further along the dark path toward a wider war.’ An interesting take from a country which has underway the largest naval expansion programme in the world, as well as border disputes with most of its neighbours.
Tracking the Royal Navy’s global deployments
As always, a Vanguard class submarine of the Royal Navy was on active patrol in the North Atlantic during the transition between July and August 2024, protecting the nation’s vital interests. HMS Queen Elizabeth, the flagship of the fleet, returned to Portsmouth while HMS Prince of Wales steamed to the Clyde to receive ammunition. HMS Richmond left Arhus in Denmark on 31st July heading south into the Strait of Dover, while HMS Protector was spotted leaving Naval Station Norfolk on 2nd August. HMS Dauntless returned to sea after 235 days of maintenance and HMS Duncan remains in the eastern Mediterranean to provide support should the situation in Lebanon worsen.
In other parts of the world, HMS Lancaster provided a platform for Royal Marines to train with their Kenyan counterparts. Offshore patrol vessels HMS Forth, HMS Trent, HMS Medway, HMS Spey and HMS Tamar were busy as ever. HMS Forth returned to sea around the Falkland Islands having completed maintenance, HMS Medway left Gibraltar to relieve HMS Trent in the Caribbean, HMS Spey remains in Southeast Asia, and HMS Tamar visited Nauru – the first visit of a Royal Navy warship in living memory!
How Britain thinks about foreign affairs
Several days ago, Healey and Lammy linked up in Qatar amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The purpose of their visit was twofold: to strengthen the UK-Qatar relationship and to discuss tensions in the region. There was a strong emphasis on ‘regional de-escalation as a priority’, in particular highlighting the efforts of Qatar in acting as a mediator in the Middle East. At the same time, Royal Navy and Royal Fleet Auxiliary vessels have been quietly gathering in the Eastern Mediterranean alongside allies – a British Type 45 class destroyer has provided escort for a United States (US) Navy amphibious group – in case British nationals need evacuating from Lebanon.
Implications
Britain’s thinking on the Middle East remains muddled – both in terms of strategic prioritisation in relation to other geographic theatres and in terms of the geopolitical effect the nation can generate in the region. Perhaps this is because the Middle East, in between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific worlds, affects both of them. Perhaps it is also because the UK has been tilting away from the Middle East after a series of costly interventions in the 2000s, to focus more on the two regions on either side of it, i.e., the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific. Noisy domestic constituencies also favour the renewal of British engagement in the region on their preferred side in the Hamas-Israel war.
When thinking about the Middle East, HM Government should show extreme caution and uphold the mantra of ‘NATO-first’. Compared to the Euro-Atlantic, where a Russian victory against Ukraine could upend the entire regional order – which the UK has been central to creating – the Middle East is increasingly supplemental to British interests. So long as the UK maintains the capacity to manifest a naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea and the Gulf, whatever happens in the Middle East can be managed. Equally, in the Middle East, HM Government has limited instruments to shape events; but in the Euro-Atlantic, it has the capacity to lead, to the benefit of the national interest.
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