Welcome to The Signal, our new monthly roundup of maritime matters.

(Despite the name of this missive, there aren’t any secret war plans in here, as that’s illegal and nobody tells me anyway!)

Thoughts from your correspondent

HMS Vanguard returned home to Faslane this month after a record-breaking 204 days at sea. She understandably looked a little worse for wear compared to her replacement, which had sailed a few days beforehand after a significant delay in getting ready for sea. Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, and John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, were there to welcome the crew home and thank them for their service on patrol.

HMS Vanguard and her three sister boats are the core of Britain’s continuous at-sea deterrent (CASD) – nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) equipped with Trident II missiles. At least one boat must be out on patrol at all times, submerged throughout to avoid detection, to ensure that the United Kingdom (UK) is always able to use the capability should a crisis arise.

This mission has always been a tough one for the crews – spending so long submerged, with only a short weekly message from loved ones, is a prospect which nobody would relish, and three months used to be considered a difficult patrol for those on board. However, this latest patrol’s record-breaking length is part of a pattern, with the average amount of time that the Vanguard class spends at sea on a patrol doubling over the last three years – the last eight patrols have all been longer than five months. While longer patrols can be argued to be of some benefit to the maintenance and recovery schedules of the remaining three boats, all of which are ageing, spending almost half a year underwater per patrol puts considerable pressure on both the boats themselves and their crews.

The Vanguard class will be replaced from the early 2030s by the Dreadnought class, which will feature more advanced technology and stealth capabilities, coupled with longer endurance. The first of the class, HMS Dreadnought, recently had her keel-laying ceremony in Barrow-in-Furness. This marks the symbolic ‘birth’ of the boat – she has already been under construction for some time – and is a milestone in the programme. HMS Valiant, HMS Warspite and HMS King George VI are to follow.

This critical capability is the ultimate guarantor of the UK’s security and acts as a multiplier for British influence within the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), which is why CASD is the central task of the Royal Navy. The continuity and future of the deterrent depends on the Dreadnought programme, and the new boats cannot come soon enough.

Starting from early April, ‘The Signal’ will move to The Broadside, a new online magazine on maritime affairs in the 21st century by the Council on Geostrategy, in cooperation with the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. Please subscribe here!

Tracking the deployments of the Royal Navy

Key movements:

• HMS Somerset, HMS Cattistock and RFA Tidesurge shadowed a group of Russian warships heading through the English Channel and North Sea. RFN Severomorsk, a destroyer, RFN Alexander Shabalin, a landing ship, and MV Sparta IV and MV Siyanie Severa, transport ships, were travelling from Tartus in Syria to the Baltic Sea – one of the convoys tasked with evacuating Russian military equipment from Syria following the fall of the Assad regime.

• HMS Lancaster seized and destroyed a Class A drug haul worth approximately £5.4 million in the northern Arabian Sea after spotting some suspicious activity with one of its new Peregrine drones. Seeing a Royal Navy frigate and Wildcat helicopter bearing down on your dhow must be quite a shock!

• HMS Medway teamed up with USS Normandy, USS Thomas Hudner and HNLMS Groningen for a three-nation passing exercise (PASSEX) in the Caribbean. The crews worked together on communication, manoeuvring, helicopter operations and combined air defence.

• HMS Dagger joined vessels from the Gibraltar Defence Police, His Majesty’s (HM) Customs and the Royal Gibraltar Police for a successful combined boat handling and asset protection exercise in territorial waters.

• HMS Iron Duke visited Oslo to further cement the Royal Navy’s ties with the Royal Norwegian Navy, including a capability demonstration and a flower ceremony at the Orlogsgasten memorial.

Maritime news from allies and adversaries

Russia: A naval ceasefire in the Black Sea has apparently been agreed by Russia and Ukraine after separate talks with the United States (US). However, given that the Kremlin has made its enactment of the agreement dependent on the lifting of various sanctions, several of which are European rather than American, it remains to be seen whether the ceasefire will actually come into force – and, if it does, how long it will hold. Details are scant from the White House thus far on the specifics of the deal, so this is one to watch closely.

United States: The US Navy is modifying its Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers to fill the gaps to be left by the retirement of the Ticonderoga class guided missile cruisers. Giving the destroyers flagship capabilities will allow them to step in for the cruisers to coordinate air and missile defence – the modified USS Winston S. Churchill will be the first destroyer to perform this role when she deploys with the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the Middle East later this year.

People’s Republic of China (PRC): A group of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) warships has circumnavigated Australia and completed live-fire exercises en route. You can read more about what this tells us about Beijing’s intentions in our recent Big Ask, including some thoughts from yours truly.

Australia: The first cohort of sailors from the Royal Australian Navy have qualified as Marine Engineering Officers (Submarine), meaning they can run the engineering watch onboard a British nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN). This is part of the UK’s commitments under AUKUS, developing the skilled workforce needed to operate Australia’s future SSNs.

France: The Dragoon Fury 2025 exercise saw the French Navy and French Army working together off Toulon on amphibious operations, with the opportunity to test around a dozen uncrewed systems of various kinds launched from FS Tonnerre, a Mistral class Landing Helicopter Dock (LHD). The pressurised tethered balloon looks particularly interesting!

Japan: A new Japan Self-Defence Forces Maritime Transport Group has been established to strengthen Japanese capabilities to deploy troops and to transport fuel, ammunition, supplies and vehicles to front-line bases – particularly in the south west along the Japanese sections of the first island chain in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

South Korea: The South Korean Navy has unveiled the concept design for a new uncrewed vessel for mine countermeasures, under the Navy Sea Ghost Initiative. Given the threat to the country from North Korean naval mines, this will be a very useful and much-needed capability.

Pakistan: The second of eight Hangor class submarines for the Pakistani Navy has been launched from Wuhan. Under the agreement between Pakistan and the PRC, the first four will be built there and the latter four in Karachi under a technology transfer programme. The Hangor class is an export variant of the Type 039B Yuan class submarine.

Naval technology news

RNMB Ariadne has now arrived with the Royal Navy: a 12-metre uncrewed surface vessel (USV) to improve mine countermeasures capabilities. She can be deployed from a harbour or mothership to scour the seabed for mines using sophisticated towed sonar, with automatic target recognition. The USV operates either fully autonomously or remote-controlled from the portable remote command centre.

The demonstrator for CETUS, the Royal Navy’s first Extra Large Underwater Autonomous Vehicle (XLUAV), has now been launched in Plymouth. The vessel will be the largest and most complex uncrewed submersible operated by any European navy, intended for long-endurance autonomous operations with a range of payloads.

Who deserves a mention

BZ to the 1805 Club and the crew of HMS Medway, who took some time out from their duties in the Caribbean to help islanders on Nevis celebrate the return of two items connected with one of Britain’s greatest naval leaders.

The parish register of St John’s, in the southwest of Nevis, records the marriage of a certain Captain Horatio Nelson and Frances ‘Fanny’ Nisbet, a plantation family widow, in 1787. The register was carefully restored by experts at the University of York before being returned to the island, along with a display replica of Nelson’s uniform, by the 1805 Club with the support of ten of HMS Medway’s sailors.

History is important for us all – and naval history, as I am sure the unbiased readers of this will agree, particularly so.

A powerful Navy we have always regarded as our proper and natural means of defense; and it has always been of defense that we have thought, never of aggression or of conquest. But who shall tell us now what sort of Navy to build? We shall take leave to be strong upon the seas, in the future as in the past; and there will be no thought of offense or provocation in that.

– President Woodrow Wilson, 8th December 1914, An Annual Message to Congress.

A reading list on maritime matters

Stairway To Taiwan – The Chinese Amphibious Bridging System by Alex Luck in Naval News – a fantastic analysis and summary of what we know about the new Shuiqiao landing barges spotted in Nansen, and one I wish had come out before I went on Taiwanese television to talk about said barges!

The Lepanto trap: Capacity after the first salvo by Nicolas Mazzucchi in Britain’s World – how navies should avoid the Lepanto trap by better considering industrial capacity and crewing in the knowledge that war will not be short and sharp.

Deciphering French Strategy in the Indo-Pacific by Léonie Allard in War on the Rocks – a comprehensive look at France’s strategy in the region, with a focus on the maritime.

How Trump can strengthen the US Navy by Michael O’Hanlon in The Hill – if, like me, you enjoy a good nerd-out on shipbuilding appropriations rules and contracting, this is one for you.

A reminder that you still have until 23:59 BST, 11th April to submit your contribution to the First Sea Lord’s Essay Competition. I am once again delighted to be on the judging panel and I am looking forward to reading your entries – please do share with anyone you think might be interested!

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Welcome to The Signal, our new monthly roundup of maritime matters.

Thoughts from your correspondent

Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister, confirmed this week that the United Kingdom (UK) will increase defence spending to 2.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027 and towards 3% by the next Parliament. The way this increase will be spent will be set out in a single national security strategy, to be published before the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in June, bringing together the ongoing Strategic Defence Review with the others currently proceeding. Given the pressures that the UK is under, from an aggressive Russia to an unpredictable America, this announcement is most welcome and long overdue.

It won’t be a shock to any of you that I believe that a good portion of this investment should go to the Royal Navy – a naval expert wanting more ships? Of course! But this belief isn’t simply the result of my longstanding love of submarines or my indoctrination by the fine folk of the Royal Navy Strategic Studies Centre. Nor is it predicated on a rosy view of Britain’s seafaring history. The UK needs a strong Royal Navy for far more practical reasons.

Firstly, the core of the nation’s defence is Britain’s continuous at-sea deterrent (CASD) – the submarines and missiles which comprise the nuclear umbrella over British territory, and NATO allies. The UK only has a sea leg of the nuclear triad – with no equivalent air or land capability – so nuclear deterrence is a fundamental Royal Navy responsibility, and one which every person involved takes extremely seriously. While CASD’s funding will probably always be ringfenced by any sensible government, more room for manoeuvre on investment puts the deterrent on a stronger footing.

Secondly, perhaps obviously, comes the old cliché that Britain is an island nation. What this really means is that the UK needs to guard its waters – the Channel, the North Sea, and the Atlantic to the north and west. Given how many Russian ships have been loitering suspiciously around of late (see prior Signals and later on in this issue for more details) this is a particularly salient factor at present. To do this well and sustainably, the Royal Navy needs ships, submarines, drones and people (and the Royal Air Force needs planes and people too, but don’t tell them I said that). All of these require investment – for construction, maintenance, logistics and recruitment.

Thirdly, Britain’s allies rely on its naval power. The heart of the British contribution to any NATO response to a worst-case scenario will be naval – its aircraft carriers, submarines and ships. The Royal Navy is the best in Europe (apologies, Marine Nationale) and should be given the investment to remain so for the sake of Europe. Given the increasingly pressing need for Europe to become more self-sufficient in its own defence, a comprehensive approach tailored around the specialties of each nation would be a wise move. Both because of geography and of capability, such an approach would and should place a significant amount of naval responsibility on the UK. Britain should have a Royal Navy that has the investment behind it to do the job.

We will, of course, have to wait until June to see where His Majesty’s (HM) Government wants to take the Royal Navy, but the defence spending announcement is a welcome step in the right direction. I am hoping for a comprehensive plan for investment that recognises both the short-term necessities and the long-term strategic value of a properly resourced navy. Let’s see if I’m still hopeful in four months’ time!

Tracking the deployments of the Royal Navy

Key movements:

• RFA Tideforce, HMS Iron Duke and HMS Tyne shadowed a group of Russian ships passing through the Channel. The warships RFS Aleksandr Otrakovskiy and RFS Ivan Gren were joined by merchant vessels Sparta, Sparta II and General Skobelev and the oiler Yelnya on a journey from the Mediterranean to Russia’s Baltic port, reportedly to evacuate Russian military equipment from Syria following the fall of the Assad regime. It looks like the Royal Navy and Royal Fleet Auxiliary won’t be short of transiting Russian ships to monitor for the foreseeable future.

• HMS Somerset took part in the ARCTIC DOLPHIN exercise. The warship and her Merlin helicopter played the part of the enemy in a series of tests for Dutch and Norwegian submarine crews, including high-speed approaches and complex manoeuvres in the confined spaces of the waters along the Norwegian coast. These exercises are incredibly valuable for the Royal Navy – both for enhancing British readiness and cementing ties with close allies.

• HMS Cattistock has been undertaking training off the coast of Scotland in preparation for her deployment to Bahrain later this year. The Royal Navy maintains a permanent minehunter presence in the Gulf, so HMS Cattistock will be taking over from sister ship HMS Middleton in the summer.

• HMS Sutherland is finally back at sea for trials after an extensive refit. The last of the Type 23 frigates to undergo life extension, the ship has had a wide range of upgrades and refurbishments in a process lasting just over four years – including the replacement of the Sea Wolf missile system with Sea Ceptor. It’s great to see her back afloat!

Maritime news from allies and adversaries

United States (US): Mixed news for the American’s this month. The US Navy successfully tested its HELIOS directed energy weapon system against a cruise missile… and the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman collided with a commercial vessel just off Port Said. Superficial hull damage only, thankfully – better an embarrassment than a disaster.

People’s Republic of China (PRC): Every month, I seem to bring you updates on another new Chinese vessel, and this edition is no different. This time, it’s quite a surprise: a sail-less submarine spotted in a floating dock. It’s either an unprecedentedly massive uncrewed drone or a new type of crewed submarine – and either way, something to keep a close eye on it.

Iran: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has taken delivery of its new homegrown drone and helicopter carrier ship, the Shahid Bahman Bagheri. The vessel is a converted commercial ship, with a 180m runway and ski jump for the launch and recovery of drones, plus at least two helicopters. Another ship to watch closely.

NATO: The alliance has successfully tested its capability to integrate uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) into its operational task groups in an exercise in the Baltic Sea. This is an important step forward, and a particularly good sign for NATO’s capabilities in support of the Baltic Sentry mission.

Naval technology news

The first of the Royal Navy’s new Type 31 frigates is expected to be launched this spring. HMS Venturer, the lead of five ships in the class, has been under construction in Rosyth and will be launched into the water for the fitting-out process, with a view to being fully in service by 2027.

The Royal Navy has deployed its new Peregrine Rotary Wing Uncrewed Air System for the first time on drug-hunting operations in the Middle East. Flying from the deck of HMS Lancaster, the mini-helicopter drone performed a series of surveillance sorties, feeding data, live radar picture and imagery directly into the warship’s operations room. Using drones like Peregrine for surveillance means that the ship’s crewed Wildcat helicopter can be kept for interdiction and strike missions. Another step forward in drone operations!

The Royal Navy’s Mine and Threat Exploitation Group have taken delivery of three new underwater drones. The Iver4 580 uncrewed underwater vessels (UUVs) detect threats at increased depths without putting sailors and divers at risk, complementing the autonomous systems already being used as part of the UK’s mine hunting capability (MHC) programme.

More news from Leonardo about their new Proteus uncrewed helicopter – there’s a great summary in Navy Lookout of all the bells and whistles.

Who deserves a mention

One for the Royal Marines this month – I was very touched to read of John Eskdale’s visit to Lympstone. John served with HMS Charybdis in the Mediterranean on the Malta Convoys in 1942 and was involved in the invasion of Sicily in the summer of 1943. He survived the sinking of HMS Charybdis by German torpedo boats near the Channel Islands in late 1943 and went on to see action in Normandy and in the Far East.

To journey at the age of 100 to inspire the next generation of Royal Marines shows how deeply his service matters to him. We are enormously lucky to still have with us a few of those brave souls who defended the UK during the Second World War. BZ to John and all those commandos who follow in his footsteps.

For in this modern world, the instruments of warfare are not solely for waging war. Far more importantly, they are the means for controlling peace. Naval officers must therefore understand not only how to fight a war, but how to use the tremendous power which they operate to sustain a world of liberty and justice, without unleashing the powerful instruments of destruction and chaos that they have at their command.

– Adm. Arleigh Burke, Chief of Naval Operations, 1 August 1961, Change of command address at Annapolis, MD.

A reading list on maritime matters

The winning entries from the Royal Navy’s Lt Cdr Hooper Essay Competition have been published by the team at Wavell Room.

Warship Weapons for Merchant Ship Platforms by T. X. Hammes and R. Robinson Harris in USNI Proceedings – could navies be made bigger by putting missiles and drones on commercial vessels?

South Korea Should Lean into Nuclear-Powered Submarines by Jihoon Yu in War on the Rocks – a well-researched look into South Korea’s submarine programme and why it’s important.

Should Medium Naval Powers Like Chile Have Their Own Shipbuilding Capacity? by Richard Kouyoumdjian Inglis for RUSI – a thought-provoking look at how these powers could address their shipbuilding needs.

If you will once again forgive a toot of my own horn, my latest Council on Geostrategy paper Empowering Britain’s maritime-industrial base is now out, with my recommendations on making the maritime great again.

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Welcome to The Signal, our new monthly roundup of maritime matters.

Thoughts from your correspondent

It is the best part of the film for a submarine nerd like me – when the adversary ship is sailing along, thinking everything is going smoothly, then a submarine surfaces nearby. We were tracking you all along, comrades. Surprise!

We found out recently that this (loosely) happened in reality back in November, when a Royal Navy submarine surfaced close to the Russian ‘research’ vessel Yantar as she loitered near the British Isles close to some critical undersea infrastructure. Yantar has also been tracked by various Royal Navy warships during her travels in Britain’s vicinity, including HMS Iron Duke, HMS Somerset, HMS Tyne and RFA Proteus.

My use of quote marks around ‘research’ is deliberate. While ostensibly a civilian vessel designed for deep-sea research and survey missions, Yantar is part of a considerable Russian fleet that is far more than it appears to be. Ever since the days of the Cold War, Moscow has used its research ships for civilian and military purposes, from intelligence gathering to surveillance to, most worryingly in the current context, sabotage. The deep-sea capabilities of the current dual-use fleet highlight the potential for deliberate damage to undersea cables and pipelines in the guise of, say, topographical seabed research. (For an excellent overview of how the ‘research’ fleet operates, read this recent explainer.)

It is not just the United Kingdom (UK) keeping an eye on these activities: the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) is ramping up its efforts, too. The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has announced that Royal Air Force (RAF) P-8A Poseidon and Rivet Joint aircraft will be deployed to support a NATO-led operation called BALTIC SENTRY, boosting maritime surveillance in the Baltic Sea and preventing damage to critical undersea infrastructure. Given the recent cable damage incidents in the Baltic, which I wrote about in the last issue of ‘The Signal’, this operation could not be coming at a better time.

John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, did not mince words in his public statement. His message to Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, was crystal clear: ‘We know what you are doing, and we will not shy away from robust action to protect Britain.’ Expect to see more Russian vessels floating suspiciously through Britain’s nearby waters – and more Royal Navy warships keeping a careful watch. We see you, comrades.

Tracking the deployments of the Royal Navy

Key movements:

• HMS Spey joined the French navy’s carrier strike group in the Indo-Pacific for Exercise LA PÉROUSE, which focused on maritime choke points. Meeting in the Sunda Strait, the crew pitted their wits against a French task group, attempted to avoid aerial attacks from the airwing of the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, tackled a shipboard fire during the attack, and then participated in two gunnery shoots. This was all simulated, of course – Britain is not at war with the French again – but it is gratifying to know that the exercise directors had to stop HMS Spey from continuing to fire because she was too good at hitting the targets and had to leave some for the other ships.

• The Royal Navy Gibraltar Squadron beefed up their capabilities to work with divers. HMS Dagger performed a joint dive with the Moroccan navy, and HMS Cutlass carried out exercises with members of the Gibraltar Clearance Diving Element (CDE). Being provably able to use the ships as diving launch and recovery platforms extends their operational utility.

• The planned Astute class submarine HMS Agincourt has been renamed to HMS Achilles, prompting a flood of speculation that this was to avoid upsetting the French. Apart from the obvious point that the UK’s friends across the Channel have probably got over being defeated in a battle in 1415 and have not seemed to mind too much about (for example) HMS Trafalgar, HMS Achilles is a storied name and will be a great addition to the fleet. BZ, however, to John W, who responded to a social media post of mine with an excellent Iliad-themed comment: ‘If you’re trying not to upset Paris, Achilles might not be the best name.’

Maritime news from allies and adversaries

United States (US): The surface-to-surface missile capability of the US Navy’s littoral combat ships has had an upgrade, with the USS Indianapolis being fitted with a new counter-unmanned aerial system (C-UAS) and USS Minneapolis-Saint Paul to follow. The newly added 24 vertically launched AGM-114L Longbow Hellfires will be useful in the Red Sea, as will other upgrades across the class like the Mk. 70 payload delivery system and the Mk. 41 vertical launch system. We all love to rag on the littoral combat ship, but maybe SECNAV Carlos del Toro was right when he said, ‘Yes, the LCS is back.’ (Or, maybe not. We’ll see!)

South Korea: A major upgrade programme has been kicked off for the South Korean Navy’s KDX-II destroyers, following the success of the upgrades to the KDX-I class. Hanwha Systems will be updating the KDX-II’s combat systems, towed array sonar and SM-2 software integration, fixing ongoing performance issues that have plagued the class. The upgrades include a package bought from the US, including technical support, software and the MK 99 fire-control system.

India: For the first time in its history, the Indian Navy commissioned three new ships in one day: the first of its new frigates, and the final ships of its new destroyer and submarine classes.

People’s Republic of China (PRC): The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) – the PRC’s naval force – has commissioned the first of its new Type 054B frigates. The ship has been given the name Luohe, with the second in the class to be commissioned shortly. These are a new design compared to the prior Type 054A frigate – bigger, better armed, and capable of carrying larger helicopters. The PRC tends to iterate its ship designs through building them, so we are seeing the evolution of Chinese frigates playing out – and given that these two were built in around two years, we should once again be reminded of the sheer heft of Chinese shipbuilding capacity.

The PRC has also been building a series of barges with extra-long bridges that look tailor-made for amphibious landings. First spotted in Guangzhou shipyard by noted defence analyst and MS Paint master H. I. Sutton, your correspondent was privy to the gathered evidence and agrees that they look very useful for, say, invading a nearby island.

South China Sea: The US Navy has conducted a bilateral exercise with the Philippine Navy in the South China Sea. Centred around a carrier strike group headed by USS Carl Vinson, the exercise boosts interoperability while also sending a deterrence signal to the PRC – particularly important at a time when the Philippine coast guard is facing off against Chinese coast guard activity near Luzon.

Naval technology news

Rolls-Royce has signed a landmark contract with the MOD for the next eight years of designing, building and maintaining submarine nuclear reactors. As well as providing in-service support for the Royal Navy’s current fleet, the deal covers the building and commissioning of the new Dreadnought class, as well as the beginning of the forthcoming SSN-AUKUS. Piecemeal contracting is a persistent problem within defence procurement, so a longer-term commitment of this kind is welcome – securing the future of the British submarine fleet while bringing more jobs to the UK is a win-win!

AUKUS Pillar II showed some intriguing progress, with a trilateral exercise off the American coast trialling current and prototype technology to find, monitor and remove seabed threats at varying depths. The exercise included personnel from the Royal Navy’s Diving and Threat Exploitation Group and Mine and Threat Exploitation Group, using the HUGIN Superior autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) to survey and the Video Ray Defender remotely operated vehicle (ROV) to identify or deal with the objects at depth.

Who deserves a mention

BZ to Lieutenant Commander Izzy Rawlinson, Petty Officer Aaby Aldridge, Lieutenant Commander Nic Hall and Lieutenant Commander Ali Aindow, collectively known as Team Valkyrie, for rowing across the Atlantic in support of the Royal Navy and Royal Marines Charity and the Young Women’s Trust.

They have not reached their fundraising goal yet, so if you have a spare bob or two you can support them here.

War is not an affair of chance. A great deal of knowledge, study, and meditation is necessary to conduct it well, and when blows are planned whoever contrives them with the greatest appreciation of their consequences will have a great advantage.

– Frederick the Great, Instructions For His Generals, 1762

As he is one of the pre-eminent military leaders of history, one should probably listen closely to much of what Frederick II of Prussia had to say on military matters, but this quote always sticks with me because of the exhortation to think. Military leaders need critical thinking, strategic understanding and adaptability to operate on ever-more complex battlefields, and these come from studying history, appreciating theory and having the kind of enquiring mind that values knowledge. Particularly given the current upheavals in professional military education in the US, we would all do well to remember that modern warfare demands more than brute force – our warfighters need brains as well as brawn.

A reading list on maritime matters

Why Britain Should Scupper the Chagos Islands Deal by Marcus Solarz Hendriks in War on the Rocks – an article version of his recent Policy Exchange report on the same issue, Hendriks makes a strong argument that His Majesty’s (HM) Government has handled this extraordinarily poorly, to the detriment of British security.

There are two excellent technical primers out from the team at Navy Lookout – one on Programme Euston (floating dry docks at Faslane for nuclear submarine maintenance) and another on BAE’s new amphibious warfare concepts.

Littoral Logistics and the Importance of 17 Port and Maritime Regiment by Andrew Young in RUSI Defence Systems – an exploration of the British Army’s reliance on that regiment for seaborne logistics, underpinning its expeditionary capability.

Re-Thinking War in the Baltic Sea by Julian Pawlak for the German Institute for Defence and Strategic Studies – an insightful look at the implications of the ongoing war in the Black Sea for the defence of the Baltic.

Don’t Protect the US Merchant Marine – Promote It by yours truly in War on the Rocks – if you’ll forgive a toot of my own horn, my latest article takes a look at the SHIPS for America Act and the effects of protectionism on American strategic sealift.

And finally, a reminder that applications for our Maritime Leaders’ Programme close on 16th February. The programme aims to foster a dynamic network of young professionals and future leaders in maritime affairs. It will include quarterly mentoring and engagement sessions with key figures from the Royal Navy, Whitehall, academia, and industry, covering topics such as operations, defence policy, strategy, and technological shifts. If you know any potential future stars of the maritime, please encourage them to apply!

If you found this Signal useful, please subscribe or pledge your support!

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What do you think about this Signal? Why not leave a comment below?

Welcome to The Signal, our new monthly roundup of maritime matters.

Thoughts from your correspondent

To lose one subsea cable may be regarded as a misfortune. To lose two looks like carelessness. To lose more can only look like a pattern. With sincere apologies to Oscar Wilde, this was my first thought after seeing the latest incident of cables being damaged by anchor-dragging ships in the Baltic Sea.

In October 2023, the BalticConnector gas pipeline running between Estonia and Finland was damaged, along with a nearby cable. In November 2023, two seabed cables – one linking Sweden’s Gotland island to Lithuania, and another connecting Finland to Germany – were cut. And on Christmas Day 2024, three cables linking Finland and Estonia were severed, along with a fourth linking Finland and Germany. All of these incidents appear to have been caused by ships dragging their anchors.

Accidents do happen, and the Baltic is a busy place for both subsea infrastructure and shipping. However, it is becoming increasingly likely that these incidents are deliberate. Margus Tsahkna, Foreign Minister of Estonia, noted last month that damage to subsea cables in the Baltic ‘has become so frequent that it is difficult to believe this is accidental or merely poor seamanship. We must understand that damage to submarine infrastructure has become more systematic and thus must be regarded as attacks against our vital structures.’

This is a complicated issue to tackle for several reasons. Firstly, cables and pipelines are difficult to protect at the best of times – they stretch for miles along the seabed and there are simply not enough navy or coast guard ships available to patrol their lengths. Secondly, these are not attacks from adversary naval ships, but from commercial ships. It’s one thing to shadow Russian warships as they pass through the Baltic, but quite another to monitor the activities of every commercial cargo ship or tanker making its way through busy shipping lanes, particularly as anchor-dragging is hard to spot from the surface. Thirdly, these incidents could indeed be passed off as accidents. Ships do drag their anchors sometimes for reasons that aren’t malicious, and accidental infrastructure damage is not unusual by any means.

Perhaps the most difficult problem, however, is the fact that the ships identified as likely to be responsible for these incidents are not directly connected to an adversary. The complicated web of commercial shipping plays to adversaries’ advantage here – it is entirely normal for a ship to be owned by a company in one state, be flagged in another state, and have its officers and crew made up of several other nationalities. For example, the Eagle S, the tanker detained by Finnish authorities after the most recent incident, is owned by an Emirati company, flagged in the Cook Islands, and has a Georgian captain and Indian crewmembers – yet it seems to be part of Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ of ships evading American, British and European sanctions to bring oil and gas into the country.

Deliberate cable-cutting incidents are examples of so-called ‘grey zone’ warfare, intended to cause damage to an adversary while operating below the threshold of detection, attribution, and response. Such acts blur the conceptual lines between war and peace, and are a core part of Russia’s tactics – the Kremlin considers Russia to be in a perpetual conflict with the Euro-Atlantic democracies, and grey zone tactics allow Russia to challenge the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) without crossing the line into the kind of direct military action that would trigger an Article 5 response.

The maritime NATO states of Northern Europe are doing more to tackle threats to their underwater infrastructure, but there remain big questions at the centre of this issue – what acts in the maritime grey zone would trigger a military response? How many ‘accidents’ in the Baltic are too many? Where is the line?

Tracking the deployments of the Royal Navy

Key movements:

• HMS Somerset, a Type 23 frigate, spent the holidays shadowing a Russian naval group transiting past the British Isles. The crew were called up on Christmas Day to sail from Devonport. The Russian corvette RFS Soobrazitelny and her two support vessels, MV Sparta II and MV General Skobelev, were monitored for more than 500 miles as they passed from the North Sea through the Dover Strait and into the English Channel. HMS Somerset’s high-tech sensor suite came in handy during foggy conditions, and the ship’s Merlin helicopter was used to capture imagery when the weather cleared up.

• HMS Triumph, a Trafalgar class submarine, returned home to Devonport for the final time before her decommissioning. The seventh and last of the Trafalgar class attack submarines, HMS Triumph was escorted into Plymouth Sound to celebrate her long career – since being commissioned in 1991, she has served in combat in Afghanistan and Libya, as well as numerous other deployments around the world. Her decommissioning marks the end of the service of Cold War-era attack submarines in the Royal Navy, passing the torch to the modern Astute class.

Maritime news from allies and adversaries

United States (US): The US Coast Guard is finally getting its new class of three heavy polar icebreakers. Delivery of the lead vessel Polar Sentinel is expected in 2029, five years later than planned, but this will be a welcome relief. American icebreaker capacity has been lagging far behind Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) at just two aging vessels (launched in 1976 and 2000), with consequences for US presence in the High North – but luckily the Coast Guard bought the commercial icebreaker Aiviq in the same week too, to provide some bridging capability until Polar Sentinel is ready.

Germany: The Bundestag has approved the construction of new air defence frigates and more attack submarines for the German Navy. Apart from a lot of work on both projects for Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, the approval signals a welcome investment in German naval capabilities and a further commitment to supporting NATO operations – the Zeitenwende may be slow, but it is at least still alive.

People’s Republic of China (PRC): The latest Type 076 amphibious assault carrier had its official launch ceremony in Shanghai and has been named ‘Sichuan’. The new ship is a global first – it is the only amphibious assault carrier in the world to include a catapult and arresting gear for the operation of fixed-wing aircraft. This is likely to mean large aerial drones, but may also include crewed aircraft – we will have to wait and see. Other navies should also note that China has now launched one aircraft carrier or amphibious carrier a year since 2019.

North Korea: Kim Jong Un, Leader of North Korea, has been recently shown visiting a shipyard constructing the largest warship ever built for the Korean People’s Army Navy, a 4,000 tonne frigate. Specifics are, as one would expect, hard to confirm – but from the photos published by state media there appears to be a vertical launch system (VLS) capability and the layout looks similar to an unfinished Russian corvette design. Coming just 18 months after North Korea unveiled a new corvette, this represents a significant uptick in the regime’s naval capabilities, and may indicate part of what Kim asked for in return for sending troops to assist Russia in eastern Ukraine.

Naval technology news

HMS Portland has become the second Royal Navy warship to be fitted with the new Naval Strike Missile (NSM), as part of an ongoing programme to replace Harpoon throughout the fleet’s Type 23 and Type 45 warships. The NSM travels at speeds close to Mach 1 and can strike targets more than 100 miles away, evading detection by skimming on the surface of the sea. HMS Portland completed alignment and sea acceptance trials for the new system at Haakonsvern Naval Base near Bergen. The NSM – currently also in service with the American, Norwegian and Polish navies – plugs the gap between Harpoon and its permanent successor, the ‘future offensive surface weapon’, which will be carried by the Royal Navy’s next-generation Type 26 frigates.

Apollo, the Royal Navy’s prototype for autonomous mine-hunting technology under the Maritime Mine Counter Measure programme, has undergone successful trials. The small uncrewed vessel can be launched from a mothership to scan the seabed for various mine types using its onboard kit, including a towed sensor/synthetic aperture sonar. The trial on the Firth of Clyde proved that Apollo can operate in deeper water with coastal currents, and that it can be launched from a commercial vessel if operationally needed. It will now be upgraded by its manufacturer, Thales, before being returned to the Royal Navy next year.

As part of its No Manning Required Ship (NOMARS) programme for the US Navy, the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has completed its first successful at-sea test for uncrewed surface vehicle (USV) refuelling. In a first for uncrewed operations, a refuelling probe was deployed and engaged without any human assistance on the part of the receiving vessel. The technology will now move on to sea trials with USV Defiant, a 240 tonne uncrewed lightship, in the spring.

Who deserves a mention

My first congratulations this month go to the crew of HMS Somerset – no sudden sailing is easy, but being called up to leave port on Christmas Day must have been a particularly difficult time. Their dedication to keeping us safe is exemplary, a stark reminder of how much we owe to our serving personnel and their families. BZ to them all!

Huge congratulations to all those in the Royal Navy and Royal Marines recognised in the New Year Honours List – many for their brave service in the fight against the Houthis in the Red Sea. A special BZ goes to R. Adm. Jude Terry, who has been recognised for her phenomenal contribution to the Royal Navy by being made a Companion of the Order of the Bath.

Of all the branches of men in the forces there is none which shows more devotion and faces grimmer perils than the submariners.

– Sir Winston Churchill

I read recently about the inspiring work of the Submariner Memorial Appeal, a group of retired submariners who came together in 2019 to raise funds for a fitting memorial to the 5,960 British submariners who have given their lives in service and their families. I was particularly struck by the gentleman who ran the London Marathon dressed as a submarine!

The memorial is now in the National Memorial Arboretum and includes this quote from Churchill. While his most famous quote about the Royal Navy (‘Naval tradition? Naval tradition? Monstrous. Nothing but rum, sodomy, prayers and the lash’) is rather less favourable, it is thankfully most likely apocryphal – and I much prefer his lauding of our brave submariners.

A reading list on maritime matters

Chinese Naval Developments 2024 In Review by Alex Luck in Naval News – the first part of a comprehensive review of developments in the People’s Liberation Army Navy by a leading expert.

I Blame the Navy’s Strategic Woes on the Chiefs of Naval Operations by Bruce Stubbs in War on the Rocks – a brisk assessment of the impact of short-term thinking on naval strategic planning.

Long Live the Aircraft Carrier by Joseph Reilly in USNI Proceedings – a return salvo in the ongoing war of words over whether the aircraft carrier is obsolete, from a rising star in the Royal Navy. I also recommend the book to which this is a response, Questioning the Carrier by Jeff Vandenengel.

Climate Change and Military Power: Hunting for Submarines in the Warming Ocean by Andrea Gilli, Mauro Gilli, Antonio Ricchi, Aniello Russo and Sandro Carniel in Texas National Security Review – a fascinating study on how climate change affects anti-submarine warfare via underwater acoustics.

The Utility of Reserve: The Royal Navy and the Maritime Reserve by A. J. Dunhill in Wavell Room – a thoughtful exploration of how Britain can make better use of its reserves.

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